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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: roguedolphin who wrote (108064)	6/24/2025 12:42:50 PM
From: roguedolphin	2 Recommendations Recommended By Hugh Bett isopatch Respond to of 108586

Notes below are from EBW Analytics Natural Gas Plunges on Physical Market Disappointment The July natural gas contract traded as low as $3.582 overnight (56.6¢ off Friday's peak). Henry Hub spot prices at $3.52 yesterday due to scorching heat forced a reckoning across the summer strip as to how much premium above today's spot price is warranted. LNG feedgas demand is climbing as Sabine Pass continues to return from maintenance, although variability at Corpus Christi is limiting national totals sub-15 Bcf/d. Sharply lower production nominations this morning may offer support for a July contract in free fall. Today's 14.1-CDD outlook is very high, but it would not be surprising to see a midsummer heat wave spark stronger gas burns. Receding anomalies suggest it may be less likely into the first half of July, however, leading traders to question if natural gas has already peaked for the summer (see Pg. 2). Trader positioning ahead of tomorrow's July options expiry and Thursday's final settlement may drive immediate-term price volatility. Significant Developments Has NYMEX natural gas already peaked for the summer? Yesterday’s Henry Hub spot price at just $3.52/MMBtu ahead of record late-June heat raises numerous questions for bulls, and the August contract reaching $4.23/MMBtu on Friday (54¢ above this morning’s lows) throws bullish outlooks into disarray. We have repeatedly noted the late-June heat wave was more supportive from a momentum and technical standpoint—joining with the return of Sabine Pass LNG—and liable to overshoot higher. For physical markets, the location of the heat matters: New York City may reach a sizzling 102°F today, but Houston and New Orleans will struggle to surpass the high 80s°F. Further, by late summer, the current salt storage surplus to normal will likely reverse into a deficit—creating further opportunities for upside to emerge. Nonetheless, with dismal spot market outcomes—Henry Hub physical prices have averaged sub-$3.00/MMBtu June-todate—storage surpluses 150+ Bcf above five-year normals, and prospects for hurricane demand destruction, it may be a heavy lift for prices to surpass last week’s high without the emergence of scorching South-based heat in late July or August. FERC upheld its authorization for the 1.4 Bcf/d Commonwealth LNG facility, with management indicating a Final Investment Decision will be forthcoming as soon as the third quarter of this year with an anticipated in-service date of 2029. The $11 billion facility is the latest development in the gathering avalanche of LNG export demand anticipated into the end of the 2020s. Dan Steffens Energy Prospectus Group