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Strategies & Market Trends : World Outlook -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (46480)	6/26/2025 10:18:45 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 48814

Satyajit Das: Middle East Trajectories – Implications for the Region and Energy Markets Posted on June 26, 2025 by Yves Smith Caution is warranted. There is no certainty that Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been destroyed or significantly degraded. The fate of Iran’s highly enriched Uranium is unknown. Iran, which has extensive nuclear expertise despite the targeted killings of its scientists, has not indicated abandonment of its programs. Given the continuing threats it faces and the knowledge that the US and Israel would not have dared attack if it possessed nuclear armaments, it might now be tempted to weaponize. This is precisely what Saddam Hussein did after Israel bombed his nascent nuclear programme in 1981 eventually leading to the Gulf Wars. In effect, Iran is being forced to choose between becoming Libya (where Colonel Gaddafi gave up his nuclear ambition and was removed then murdered) or North Korea. Iran has the option of moving its program underground by withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and preventing inspections. The Iranian parliament has voted to stop cooperation with the UN nuclear oversight body. Many countries, including Israel itself, have developed nuclear weapons covertly. Given that Tel-Aviv has shown little regard for ceasefires in Gaza, it is fanciful to think that there will be even a sustained halt in hostilities. Israel has used the Iranian nuclear threat arguing that the Islamic nation is within weeks or days of building a bomb as an excuse for its aggression since 1992! Suggestions by the ever changeable US President that there may be no need for a nuclear agreement with Iran as it was unnecessary with the “obliteration” of the nuclear sites may prove problematic for Prime Minister Netanyahu especially if damage assessments show less damage than currently assumed. Its campaign against the abandoned Palestinians and attacks on Lebanon and Syria have not ceased. The Iranian action was in part to distract the world’s attention from its continuing genocidal atrocities. These will come back into focus. Qatar has indicated that it wants the US to actively press for a comprehensive cease fire in Gaza. The UN and West, if it has any moral courage remaining, may impose meaningful sanctions. Prime Minister Netanyahu needs a state of permanent war, through the support of his Zionist coalition partners, to stay in power to forestall legal actions against him and his family. Without meaningful sanctions relief and security guarantees, it is difficult to see a permanent cessation in hostilities. There is too much bitterness, mistrust and history between the combatants. Iranians, especially the Republic Guards whose leaders were assassinated, are unlikely to forget and forgive. For Iran, recent events have confirmed, it that was needed, that Israel, the US and its allies are its enemies. Despite its undoubted military capabilities, the Islamic Republic will have noted that the Jewish state is not invulnerable to its missiles and needed extensive US support and intervention in the “12-day war”. Tehran has tested its weaponry under battlefield condition and can now refine its arsenal. Israeli sleeper cells and intelligence penetration will be less effective in future conflicts. Tel-Aviv cannot, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu admitted, sustain a war of attrition. Iran will need to be patient rebuilding its capabilities and proxies. 911 occurred years after the US-led intervention in Iraq. The ‘truce’ may earn President Trump ‘points’ towards the Nobel Peace Prize that he covets. It is unlikely to bring lasting peace to the Middle East. nakedcapitalism.com