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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (92919)	6/28/2025 1:38:19 PM
From: ajtj99	3 Recommendations Recommended By Arran Yuan Clam digger Sun Tzu Respond to of 96430

Nobody is running a true Keynesian system. Keynes said to run deficits during recessions/depressions, but to run surpluses in times of growth to complement that. Nobody does this.

To: Real Man who wrote (92919)	6/28/2025 2:49:24 PM
From: Tweets Boar Hog	1 Recommendation Recommended By ajtj99 Respond to of 96430

The 36 yr cycle has been around a long time, it is present in the general markets as well, and comes about from the 2X2X9 equation, based on the 9 yr cycle. And remember they have an orb (error). A dominant multiplier for any basic cycle, like a 9 yr, is 2. And it is also a divisor. The 36 yr cycle in the bond markets is 'phased' different than that in the general markets. Probably as expected. Some well known prognosticators are 'on' the 36 yr long cycle, even though they won't necessarily come out and say so. Jmo. Message 35101552 So for us cycle sycophants, we don't get too wrapped around the axle when a presidential election comes up, with respect to market dynamics. Or who is mayor of NY. Otoh we do note. Anything can happen, but it is like it is all preordained. As you study the chart, note too that the lifespan of Americans has increased nearly 30 yrs since 1929. Tweets This is a monthly chart. We are on our third 36 yr cycle, since the post 1929 bottom. Note the Rsi patterns, including the one we are on. Note too that the Dow, during the up part, generally stays above the 50 Sma, where it currently is. Often during the whole cycle there is a really scary pull back, where we get a touch or penetration. Some specific comments. Post the initial 1929 bottom, the ~ 1943 bottom marked an ~ 9 yr low. And it occurred about the time of completion of the Battles of Guadalcanal, Midway and Stalingrad. It became obvious the Allies were gonna win. Post that ~ 1943 bottom the Dow marched on up, with minimal corrections actually, to a top about 36 yrs post the 1929 top. Then it went sideways in a correction, for about 9 yrs. The 1975 bottom occurred about coincident with the fall of Saigon, marked the start of another 36 yr cycle up. That nasty war in Nam was over, we could move on. The 2000 top occurred about 36 yrs post the previous awa near 72 yrs post the 1929 top. Marked the start of another ~ 9 yr correction. The 2009 bottom, we know that one, marked the start of another 36 yr cycle. A big fear driven bottom. I've wave labeled this, does not have to be correct. The X bottom and start of a 36 yr cycle up in 2009 is more important. But in the longer term, per my labeling, we are headed towards a big top to complete a long extended 5 wave sequence that started post 1929. The 5th wave is extended and started at the ~ 1975 bottom. We are now in the meat of run of the vth of that 5th wave, just entered the meat of a long 3rd wave (of that vth). And if you go back this section of the run from start to finish usually takes the better part of two 9 yr cycles, or an 18 yr cycle. This one started with that 2020 bottom, the 9 yr low was a bit late, which is probably bullish. My next big top is around 2037. Hope I am around to see it. Yet along the way I realize the market can do what it wants. I have a daughter and son inlaw, early 40's. I have informed them of this, I think the next Big Top could be a doozie. Post the 1929 top the market lost about 90 % of its value. Put an awful lot of folk in the poor house. During the 1st 36 yr run post 1929, the multiplier for The Dow was ~ 26. During the 2nd 36 yr run, the multiplier was ~ 25. The 2009 Dow bottom was 6469, 25X puts the next top ~ 160 K. Not predicting, just noting the math. I have over layed another critical cycle I am following, gold and pm's. There is a very strong ~ 15 yr cycle. What is it gonna do here?