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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (36308)	2/24/1998 4:51:00 PM
From: polarisnh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

I don't know anything about dice, but what are the chances that Ascend kicks CSCO's butt in Remote Access in 1998! Cheers, Steve

To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (36308)	2/24/1998 5:45:00 PM
From: Nazbuster	Respond to of 61433

I live in Vegas...and am an expert craps player... I do know the odds Being an expert, you must lose your money more slowly than most!<G> At best, you can cut the house odds to 1/2 of 1% by placing only pass bets and ALWAYS taking the odds. (All other bets have horrible odds/payback rates.) Unfortunately, the house still has that 1/2 of 1%...

To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (36308)	2/24/1998 7:42:00 PM
From: michael modeme	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

In regards to the dice problem, here's how it's done: Call each time a pair of dice is rolled an event. Each event is assumed to be independent of previous outcomes (as well as subsequent outcomes) -- this is empirically a very good assumption The probability that the outcome of an event is 12 is (1/6)(1/6) = 1/36 ; this is because the two die are independent of oneanother with equal probabilities of obtaining a 1,2,3,4,5, or 6 Since we multiply probabilities of independent events, the probability of rolling 3 12's in a row is (1/36)(1/36)*(1/36) = 0.0000214 But the probability of rolling a 12 CONDITIONAL on rolling two previous 12's is simply 1/36 from independence. Now, to relate this to stocks: most stochastic (random) models of stock prices assume independence between the a current stock price move and previous stock dynamics. They do this because it's easier to treat mathematically. However, it has been noted that there is a correlation between past stock dynamics and current stock dynamics (a weak positive correlation). Hope that helps