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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (8220)	2/24/1998 7:06:00 PM
From: Bob Kimball	Respond to of 13594

Andrew, lots of good sources on ewave. Free introductory course at www.elliottwave.com. Ewave is one of the most reliable forecasting tools in my experience, if somewhat difficult to get going with. At the very least, it can help sort out potential developments into categories of probable, possible, and no-way. Even with ewave, it is hard to call the top of a bull trend such as we've seen in AOL, especially in the time dimension. What I've observed is that buyer exhaustion has more to do with the "inevitable" crash/decline than PE ratio... in other words there is no PE ratio that's "too high" for a stock but sometimes investors can no longer come up with any new justifications for better days ahead. FWIW one of the biggest signals of coming buyer exhaustion is the announcement and execution of a split. The split is a convenient way for big holders to transfer more of their high-priced position to the public. After the public has bought into the split euphoria, what's next? Who's left to get excited? Just take a look at the AMAT chart pre- and post-split.