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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jack rand who wrote (8221)	2/24/1998 7:13:00 PM
From: Keith J	Respond to of 13594

Latest First Call numbers. Amazing that 5 analysts drop earnings for March, yet no change in the average estimate. FIRST CALL EARNINGS ESTIMATES AOL America Online Inc. 02/23/98 Industry: Consumer Svc SIC: 7370 Latest Price: $123.88 1998 P/E: 134.7 Analyst Recommendation: 1.4 QTR QTR FY FY Mar 98 Jun 98 Jun 98 Jun 99 --- --- -- -- CURRENT MEAN EPS 0.25 0.36 0.92 1.71 Number of Brokers 22 21 22 22 Median 0.25 0.36 0.91 1.68 Standard Deviation 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.11 Current High 0.27 0.43 1.00 2.00 Current Low 0.22 0.31 0.85 1.50 Year Ago EPS 0.02A 0.09A -0.32A 0.92 Current vs. Year Ago Change 1150% 300% 388% 86% Report Date May 5 wk/Aug 7 wk/Aug 7 - EARNINGS ESTIMATE REVISION MOMENTUM Up Revisions last 7 days 0 5 2 4 Up Revisions last 30 days 4 13 11 10 Down Revisions last 7 days 5 0 0 0 Down Revisions last 30 days 10 1 0 0 EARNINGS ESTIMATES CONSENSUS TRENDS Current Mean 0.25 0.36 0.92 1.71 7-days ago Mean 0.25 0.36 0.92 1.69 30-days ago Mean 0.25 0.34 0.90 1.63 60-days ago Mean 0.25 0.34 0.91 1.63 90-days ago Mean 0.25 0.34 0.91 1.63 KJ

To: jack rand who wrote (8221)	2/24/1998 7:15:00 PM
From: Kerry Phineas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

Jack, there are also the people who have leveraged investments in tech stocks; another of their companies with big time exposure to Asia gets hit, they'll be more likely to sell their AOL. Or if tech mutual funds start getting massive redemptions again, this time as a result of fears of trouble in Asia for semi and related companies, it hits AOL. Also, there's the fact that AOL and YHOO should (?) correlate strongly. If Softbank does have very serious problems and is forced to sell YHOO stock(I think they own 40%), it should have an effect on AOL. I can think of a million indirect reasons.

To: jack rand who wrote (8221)	2/24/1998 9:52:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

>>Notion that there are islands of isolation is crap.<< what can I say. I agree 100% you get an A+. One intersting point also is that people talk about Asia accounting only foe 15% of US exports and therefore the Asian crisis only having a limited effect is a bunch of c..p. US exports to other nations will also suffer as we will have to compete with cheaper asian products everywhere. Also, other countries affected like europe and SA may have less foreign exchange to buy our goods. But don't worry, we have all this high tech stuff that no one else has so they will import anyway! IMO the Asian crisis willl be much more severe than people think about 3X the impact of the previous SA crisis, and Japan won't bail them out. Pancho