To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (64705 ) 7/23/2025 3:41:51 AM From: Johnny Canuck Read Replies (1) | Respond to M&A Deal Volume Is Down. The Drought Will Worsen. barrons.com “M&A Deal Volume Is Down. The Drought Will Worsen.” : Deal volume in the middle-market segment has dropped sharply as corporate decision-makers sidestep transactions amid tariff pressures and market uncertainty Mayer Brown+4Barron's+4F N London+4 . ?? 2. Tariffs Throw Cold Water on Deal Flow Ongoing and escalating Trump-era tariffs—especially on metals, autos, and imports—create uncertainty over costs and supply chains, causing acquirers to pause or delay deals Barron's Reuters . ?? 3. Capital-Market Slowdown Hits Banks With M&A activity suppressed, deal-related revenue has fallen substantially, putting pressure on investment banks considering cost cuts Reuters+3Reuters+3Barron's+3 . ?? 4. No Relief in Sight The deal environment isn’t expected to improve soon: the article argues that until tariffs are clarified or eased, mid-market mergers and acquisitions will continue to suffer Mayer Brown+2Barron's+2arXiv+2 . ?? 5. Larger Deals Hold Up, But Volume Falls Big-ticket mergers remain more resilient—private equity and mega-deals still proceed—but a 20%+ drop in total deal count and fee revenue is evident Instagram+8Reuters+8Barron's+8 . ?? 6. Caution Pending Clarity Dealmakers expect a pickup only once tariffs stabilize—likely in late 2025 at the earliest—meaning we’re entering a prolonged deferred cycle. ?? Broader Context from Other Sources Reuters reports that global deal volume hit a 20-year low in Q1 2025, down ~25%, with banks warning of a potential three-year M&A slowdown until tariff issues are resolved Reuters+3The Week+3Wikipedia+3 Reuters+1Barron's+1 . Barron’s Big Money poll reveals record bearish sentiment among professionals, with 58% citing tariff fears and political turmoil as major risks damping deals and equity markets Barron's . TS?Lombard (via Barron’s) highlights how persistent low-grade tariff shocks could trigger stagflation, further undercutting confidence needed for deal activity Barron's . ?? TL;DR Tariff uncertainty Key barrier—raising costs, shaking confidence Deal volume Middle-market hit hardest; big deals steady Bank revenue M&A fee income sliding, cost cuts likely Outlook Dormant until tariffs ease—possibly late 2025
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