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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (64759)7/24/2025 10:12:58 PM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 67543
 
GE Vernova's Q2 Electrifies Stock, What's Next For This Top Name?Written by Leo Miller

If GE Vernova’s (NYSE: GEV) latest earnings results are any indication, General Electric’s corporate restructuring continues to look like a stroke of genius. On July 23, the energy equipment spin-out saw shares soar over 14% after reporting Q2 financials. As of the July 23 close, GE Vernova has provided a total return of nearly 92% in 2025. This makes it the second-best performing stock in the S&P 500 Index, behind only Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR).

Let’s break down GE Vernova’s Q2, which validates the bullish sentiment on the stock. Ultimately, we’ll aim to answer whether investors should continue betting that the stock’s huge run will continue or if it is time to take profits and look for opportunities elsewhere.

GEV’s Q2: This Energy Enabler Is Firing on All CylindersIn Q2, sales came in at $9.1 billion, equating to a growth rate of 11%. This figure was approximately $328 million higher than Wall Street analysts anticipated. Just as important were the increases in the company’s orders and backlog, as these are strong indicators of future revenue.

Orders rose by 4% to $12.4 billion, 1.4 times higher than the company’s revenue in Q2. Meanwhile, GE Vernova's backlog grew 11.4% to $129 billion, 3.5 times higher than the company's expected revenue in 2025.

These figures are positive signs for investors in the near and long term. Right now, sales are outpacing expectations. Orders remain substantially higher than revenues, indicating that revenue growth can continue at this pace in the near term.

The company’s backlog indicates that long-term revenue potential is increasing slightly faster than current revenue. This suggests that GE Vernova can maintain or even accelerate its revenue growth in the coming years.

Beating sales expectations and margin improvements helped GE Vernova post earnings per share of $1.86, surpassing estimates of $1.63. Additionally, the firm increased the midpoint of its free cash flow guidance by $1 billion to $3.25 billion. This might be the most encouraging sign of all for investors. Bringing in more cash than it spends is the ultimate goal of any business, and GE Vernova is making robust progress.

AI Energy Needs Are Driving Huge Wins for GEV’s Natural Gas SolutionsDiving further into the company’s report helps explain what is driving GE Vernova's incredible success. The company’s Power segment is by far its largest, accounting for around 53% of total revenue last quarter. In this segment, the company sells natural gas turbines and provides servicing.

Power also offers nuclear, hydroelectric, and steam power equipment and services. Orders in Power rose dramatically by 44% last quarter. Natural gas orders nearly tripled versus Q2 2024, driving this. Utility companies must scale up their electricity generation capacity to keep up with surging demand due to artificial intelligence (AI).

AI data centers need energy that is both reliable and clean. This is why so many hyperscale data center companies have signed agreements for nuclear energy. However, the availability of nuclear sites is dropping, and new sites can take a decade to build.

Thus, reliable and relatively clean natural gas is a logical alternative for scaling up energy capacity. Given its leadership in natural gas turbines, GE Vernova is an ideal company for meeting the demand for AI energy here and now.

GE Vernova is also working to design and build nuclear small modular reactors (SMRs). SMRs help get around the long construction times of large reactors but are still in the developmental phase. This positions the company to meet the longer-term interests of hyperscalers. Additionally, GE Vernova’s scale likely gives it a competitive advantage over smaller SMR developers.

GEV: Valuation Is Lofty, But So Are Its Long-Term OpportunitiesAs of July 23, GE Vernova trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 80x.

That number is likely to come down as analysts revise earnings estimates upward. However, it is still 60% above the firm's average forward P/E of 50x since April 2024.

This suggests that shares could be highly overvalued.

However, it's tough to argue with the company’s long-term prospects, especially given the potential of its SMR business.

At the same time, it's hard to say the stock’s massive surge and ballooning forward P/E don't warrant taking some money off the table.

Maintaining some exposure to this name while looking for cheaper opportunities elsewhere feels like a prudent balance for investors to strike.

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Did you know you can now trade Bitcoin in your regular brokerage account? (Ad)


We’re on the edge of what could be a massive parabolic move in Bitcoin that pushes the price past all-time highs… and over $100K.

There was a little-known move by the NYSE in late 2021 that opened up a “loophole” for anyone with a regular brokerage account to take advantage of Bitcoin.

Combined with a Trump presidency—who says he wants to be known as the first “Crypto President”—this creates an unprecedented opportunity.

You’ll want to see the explosive opportunity that looks ready to surge in the days and weeks ahead

From Zero to Hero? Why GoPro's Rally Could Be More Than It SeemsWritten by Jeffrey Neal Johnson

GoPro, Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRO) is a stock that many investors had written off, but it suddenly roared back to life in late July. In a stunning reversal, shares of the action camera pioneer surged. At the same time, trading volume exploded to over 251 million in a single session, a leap from its daily average of just under four million.

This explosive move carries all the hallmarks of a modern meme stock rally, where online communities of retail traders target heavily shorted companies. While this speculation certainly lit the fuse, the intense spotlight may have revealed something more.

A closer look at GoPro’s recent activities shows a company quietly rebuilding its foundation from the ground up. The market is now forced to ask a critical question: Is this just a temporary, speculative fever dream, or has a genuine business transformation been hiding in plain sight?

The 3 Pillars of a New GoProBeneath the chaotic trading, GoPro's management has been executing a multi-faceted strategy focused on long-term financial health and new avenues for growth. This deliberate plan rests on three core pillars that address past weaknesses and build a credible case for a sustainable future.

The Foundation: A Disciplined and Profitable CoreFor years, investors' primary concerns were GoPro’s inconsistent profitability and high spending. The company is now tackling this issue head-on with impressive financial discipline. In its first-quarter 2025 financial results, GoPro reported a 26% year-over-year reduction in operating expenses.

This cost control is central to management's stated goal of returning the company to full-year profitability in 2025. Furthermore, the company aims to strengthen its balance sheet by year-end, with approximately $75 million in cash and no debt. For investors, this shift is crucial. A strong balance sheet provides a safety net, enabling a company to navigate economic uncertainty and invest in growth without incurring risky debt. A clear path to profitability proves the business model is sound and can generate real returns, making the stock fundamentally more attractive.

The Moat: A Strengthened Ecosystem and New LeadershipA strong company must defend its core business. GoPro is doing just that by creating a more robust product moat. Beyond releasing its flagship HERO13 camera, the company launched an entire ecosystem of interchangeable HB-Series Lenses. This strategy encourages users to invest more deeply into the GoPro platform, increasing customer loyalty and potential revenue per user.

GoPro is also actively defending its brand. In July 2025, a U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) judge handed down an initial victory to GoPro, ruling that key competitor Insta360 had infringed upon its iconic camera design patent. Protecting its unique look is a crucial step in maintaining its premium brand identity.

New, high-caliber leadership supports this strategic execution. The recent appointment of Mike Dennison to the board brings significant operational expertise. As the current CEO of the successful, billion-dollar manufacturer Fox Factory Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: FOXF), his presence adds a vote of confidence in GoPro's ability to manage its supply chain and execute its ambitious plans.

The Future: The Smart Helmet Growth EnginePerhaps the most compelling part of GoPro's turnaround story is its boldest strategic bet in years: the acquisition of Forcite Helmet Systems. This move extends GoPro's reach beyond its core camera market into the large and growing industry of tech-enabled smart gear. The company hopes this will create an entirely new product category with the potential for significant new revenue.

This is the kind of forward-looking, transformative strategy that traditional Wall Street analysis often struggles to value. The consensus analyst price target for GoPro is a modest $0.75, a figure based on its historical performance as a camera maker. Such analytical models rarely account for the potential of successfully entering a completely new market. If GoPro can capture even a small share of the smart helmet industry, it could significantly impact its revenue outlook. This potential represents pure upside that legacy valuations, based solely on metrics, may be completely ignoring, reframing the narrative from that of a mature camera company to a diversified personal technology sector innovator.

The Turnaround's True TestThe recent stock market frenzy, while driven by speculation, served an important purpose: it compelled investors to take a closer look at a company that had been undergoing a fundamental transformation behind the scenes. That comeback story is not built on hype, but on the tangible pillars of a newly disciplined financial core, a defended product ecosystem with credible leadership, and a bold new growth engine.

Ultimately, the validation for any turnaround rests on execution. While the strategy is compelling, the company must now deliver the results. The next major test is the Q2 2025 earnings call. Investors should watch for tangible proof that the plan is working. Key metrics to monitor include progress toward the guided 35.5% gross margin target and any updates from management on the smart helmet strategy. That is where the transition from market hype to fundamental reality will truly be measured.

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Trump’s Endgame? (R.I.P. China) (Ad)


Tucked inside a Silicon Valley factory, a bold new tech is quietly emerging—one that could ignite a $12 trillion U.S. manufacturing boom.

Dubbed Trump’s “New Golden Age” tech, this breakthrough has drawn praise from Elon Musk and NVIDIA’s CEO—and early investors may have a rare chance to get in ahead of the crowd.

See why this could be the biggest shift in manufacturing in decades

Krispy Kreme: A Meme Stock Sugar Rush or a Sustainable Treat?Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson

Krispy Kreme (NASDAQ: DNUT) recently sent a shockwave through the market as its trading volume exploded from its typical average of around five million shares to a staggering 150 million in a single day. The jump in volume fueled massive, double-digit price gains. This sudden frenzy has created a sharp divide among investors. One side sees the chaotic, high-risk volatility of a meme stock driven by social media hype.

The other side sees a company in the early innings of a fundamental turnaround. While speculation certainly lit the fuse, a closer examination reveals a management team making disciplined, strategic moves to build a significantly stronger and more profitable company.

How Market Forces Fueled Krispy Kreme’s FrenzyThe jump in Krispy Kreme's stock price was a textbook technical event known as a short squeeze. The stage was set perfectly. First, the stock had high short interest, with traders betting against more than 28% of its publicly available shares.

Second, Krispy Kreme has a relatively small public float, meaning fewer shares are available for trading, as its majority owner, JAB Holding Company, holds a prominent, static position. When a wave of coordinated buying from retail investors hit the market, this limited supply of shares caused the price to rise quickly.

The rising price forced the short sellers to buy back shares to avoid catastrophic losses, adding to the buying pressure and propelling the stock even higher. This sudden volatility was a product of market forces, not a sudden improvement in the company's business. The real story for investors is in the strategic changes behind the chart.

Krispy Kreme's Disciplined Pivot to ProfitabilityWhile the market was captivated by the price swings, many technical traders missed the fundamental fact that Krispy Kreme's leadership has been methodically re-engineering its business for long-term success. This new strategy prioritizes financial health and sustainable margins over growth at any cost.

The Financially Sound McDonald's ExitThe decision to end the planned nationwide partnership with McDonald's was a strategic move that demonstrated financial discipline. After a limited rollout, it became clear the venture would not be profitable for Krispy Kreme due to higher-than-expected costs and lower-than-needed sales volumes.

Rather than chase revenue in a low-margin endeavor, management made the difficult but correct decision to pivot. This move sent a clear signal to investors: the new Krispy Kreme is focused squarely on the bottom line.

Building a More Efficient MachineKrispy Kreme is aggressively tackling its cost structure to ensure future partnerships are profitable. A key initiative is outsourcing its complex U.S. logistics to third-party experts, a move management states is already resulting in cost savings and more predictable expenses.

This is combined with a plan to strategically close 5-10% of its least profitable distribution locations. These actions directly address the operational hurdles that have historically challenged the company and are designed to boost the efficiency of its core hub-and-spoke model.

Smarter, Capital-Light Global GrowthThe company is leveraging its iconic brand name overseas through a more intelligent, lower-risk franchise model. The launch in Brazil was a massive success, generating $100,000 in sales in just two days and proving the brand's immense global appeal.

The company is now exploring refranchising company-owned markets, such as the United Kingdom and Australia. This capital-light strategy allows Krispy Kreme to expand its footprint and grow revenue without putting its cash at risk, with proceeds from any potential sales earmarked to strengthen its balance sheet.

Krispy Kreme’s Turnaround Takes ShapeWall Street is beginning to notice this strategic shift. BNP Paribas (EPA: BNP) recently upgraded its rating on the stock, a sign that it views the company's risk profile as improving. This follows Morgan Stanley's (NYSE: MS) decision to maintain its Overweight rating, indicating continued institutional confidence in the long-term plan.

The consensus price target from analysts currently stands above $7.50, indicating a healthy upside potential from recent trading levels.

This improving sentiment is backed by concrete actions to fix Krispy Kreme’s financials. Management's move to eliminate the dividend was a clear step to preserve cash, which can now be used to pay down debt.

This, combined with the plan to use future proceeds from international refranchising to deleverage, provides a clear roadmap to lowering its 0.83 debt-to-equity ratio (D/E) and strengthening its financial foundation.

The next major catalyst for investors will be the company's second-quarter earnings report on August 7, which will provide the first glimpse into the financial impact of this new, disciplined approach.

A Sweet Opportunity for the Patient InvestorThe wild, headline-grabbing price swings in Krispy Kreme stock result from a speculative market frenzy. For long-term investors, however, the more important story is the fundamental pivot to a leaner, more profitable, and financially disciplined business model.

With a clear strategy to improve margins, strengthen the balance sheet, and grow smarter, Krispy Kreme lays the foundation for a more resilient future.

This strategic turnaround may offer a sweet opportunity for those willing to look past the short-term noise.

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