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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Qurate Retail -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sean Collett who wrote (27)	7/28/2025 6:33:03 PM
From: sixty2nds	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 85

Sean I've read your posts. Well done. Most of my thoughts are similar to what you have stated. I was surprised at the depth of the sell off after the last Q reported. When the Preferred Dividend was suspended... I thought the Internal Forward Projections must REALLY be BAD. I thought long and hard about bailing... Decided not to. My mistake was relying on the History of Qurate finding a way to survive. I knew the debt was HEAVY, but again they find a way. I paid more attention to FCF than anything. Again, historically they found a way. I am still holding the Preferred. I am not holding my breath. I agree. When the 2 new Directors were named the odds tilted heavily favor BK and not a Prepack. The Lawyers will tightly control the news flow. I'll be surprised if there is a Q & A session. We will see just how bad things are August 7. I'm going to stick around for the show. Cheers, 60

To: Sean Collett who wrote (27)	8/6/2025 11:11:03 AM
From: Sean Collett	1 Recommendation Recommended By sixty2nds Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 85

Earnings are tomorrow and figured I would update with my recent Tiktok trends + my model since I had some more data to feed it with. Trend has been all over since Christmas in July so waiting to see where it sits, regardless the business is far too small to matter right now. If I use $50 for an average transaction value (ATV) then since they put a heavy focus on the app April 6th this is about $25.33M in revenue - not bad by any means but cable declines are not slowing either. To re-frame this, the social/streaming revenue is not in addition but offset and so far that offset is small. Like I wrote before this is still trending towards a $86M business on a full annual cycle. As I stated in prior post I would expect to see new customers pop as this Tiktok effect should be felt in Q2. Will take 12 months before any of this shows in existing assuming these convert to repeat customers. On existing customers this is what's most correlated to revenue at .99. This is where my model kicks in to attempt to take external data and predict where existing customers will be. Between the two models I have I would think we see somewhere around 3,732,221-3,797,691 existing customers in Q2 which would be a decline of 0.2-1.9%from Q1 report. My position here is only in QVCD bonds as I wrote before. Risky of course, as I suppose nothing is risk free, but the bonds are senior secured against QVC, Inc equity. If the company goes into bankruptcy I don't see liquidation so the bonds either convert to new debt or new equity in the company with existing cancelled out. My math is this. If I take $22,955.90 with an ACB of $9.02 on QVCD I get about 2,545 of these bonds. If the company files these are senior secured and should return close to PAR value ($25.00) in a restructuring or I get close value in new equity given the duration of these. They pay out $0.398 in coupon each quarter while I wait or $1,012.91 annually with 2,545 held (worth noting in a freefall all interest will likely be paused so no payment). If the company somehow performs a turnaround then the bonds will naturally rebound (considerations for interest rate risk of course). This is a 2.77x bagger or 177% gain without the coupon factored in. If I took the same $ value and bought QVCGA (ACB $3.35) I get 6,850 shares of the equity right now. If the stock rebounds to $10.00 ($0.20 pre-RS) then of course this is the better ROI as it's a 2.99x bagger or 198.51% gain.....BUT the risk here is EBITDA for QVCGA last 10-K was $1,071MM and if we use FMV of debt this gives us a 4.1x multiple which brings the equity to a value of ($7.06) as of my calculations this morning - if they file bankruptcy there is not enough value to satisfy all senior secured debt at QVC, Inc (OpCo) -> Liberty Interactive (HoldCo) unsecured debt -> ParCO preferred equity and pass enough still to common QVCGA. So where's the margin of safety? Even going with a 6x multiple I still get a negative equity. If you're going to roll with the pigs then the senior secured bonds offer that MOS for me. Nothing is risk-free, especially in 2025, but risk I am taking. I will write-up what I see tomorrow and update the model(s) with what QVC reports so see if the predictions hold up. As it stands I do not see enough value to pass upstream and make QVCGA or QVCGP worth the risk of holding anymore. The game changed when Athens wrapped up late last year and revenue nor OIBDA did not stabilize after. Happy investing :) -Sean