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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (93877)	8/1/2025 5:34:46 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 97457

Trump fired the commissioner of the BLS today because he thinks it manufactured job numbers to discredit the Republicans and the President. Expecting BLS numbers to become even more doctored with the new commissioner. They already use a statistical model for small business and self-employment jobs

To: ajtj99 who wrote (93877)	8/1/2025 5:39:35 PM
From: Qone0	1 Recommendation Recommended By ajtj99 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97457

ADP is real data from a private payroll company. BLS is a survey that usually doesn't get returned from all the business on time or ever. They use a statistical model to estimate the total. This is extremely flawed. the numbers are revised as more surveys are returned. Only once a year, with a year lag are the real employment numbers known. The last one for 2024 resulted in a 818,000 job revision down. The sample-based estimates from the establishment survey are adjusted once a year (on a lagged basis) to universe counts of payroll employment obtained from administrative records of the unemployment insurance program. The difference between the March sample-based employment estimates and the March universe counts is known as a benchmark revision, and serves as a rough proxy for total survey error. Benchmarks also incorporate changes in the classification of industries when necessary.