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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Madharry who wrote (77797)8/3/2025 8:24:36 PM
From: Paul Senior  Respond to of 78470
 
No, I've not specifically tracked them to be able to provide any quantitative verification that reversion-to-mean plays work for me.

I sense that they do, but possibly the old selective memory thing: I can't recall losing a lot on the times they haven't worked out; I much easier remember the times they do work out.



To: Madharry who wrote (77797)8/5/2025 9:11:43 AM
From: E_K_S  Respond to of 78470
 
Re: Rithm Capital Corp (RITM)

I believe I acquired this 6/2021 following you into NRZ which later 'rebranded' to RITM. Sold 10% at 8/4/2025 booking a 17% return (only a 3.78% CAGR). If you include dividend received over the period adjusted CAGR is 11.47%. Current div yield is 8.19%.

I hold this in the ROTH account where dividend distributions are important.

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Rithm Capital Corp. (NYSE: RITM), a global, multi-dimensional asset manager focused on real estate, credit, and financial services. Let's break down its genesis, services, debt profile, growth prospects, and leverage.
Genesis of RITM

Rithm Capital Corp. has an interesting history rooted in the real estate investment trust (REIT) space. It was initially spun off from Newcastle Investment Corp. (a REIT under Fortress Investment Group) in May 2013, at which point it was named New Residential Investment Corp. (NRZ). The focus then was primarily on investments related to mortgage servicing rights (MSRs).

Over the years, the company expanded through various acquisitions, including Home Loan Servicing Solutions, MSRs from Citigroup, a consortium investment in consumer loans from Prosper Marketplace, and the acquisition of Mortgage Lender Shellpoint Partners. In April 2021, Newrez, a mortgage lending and servicing unit under New Residential, acquired Caliber Home Loans.

A significant turning point occurred in June 2022, when New Residential became independent from Fortress Investment Group by terminating its management agreement. At this time, it rebranded as Rithm Capital Corp. with the ticker 'RITM'. This move was strategic, aimed at reducing costs and attracting more institutional investors who often prefer internally managed structures. Rithm retained the employees from Fortress who were previously dedicated to New Residential, transitioning to an owner-operator model.

More recently, in July 2023, Rithm Capital agreed to acquire Sculptor Capital Management, further expanding its asset management capabilities.

Services Offered

Rithm Capital Corp. operates across various segments, demonstrating a diversified approach to real estate and financial services. Its key segments and services include:

  • Origination and Servicing: This segment is a core strength, encompassing a comprehensive platform for originating and servicing mortgage loans, including performing and special servicing capabilities for major investors like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This includes subsidiaries like Newrez and Genesis Capital LLC, a residential transitional lender.

  • Investment Portfolio: RITM generates revenue from a diverse portfolio of assets, such as:

    • Real estate securities

    • Single-family rental properties

    • Residential mortgage loans

    • Consumer loans

    • Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs)

  • Residential Transitional Lending: Through subsidiaries like Genesis Capital, RITM provides debt solutions to professional real estate investors, focusing on residential transitional loans.

  • Asset Management: With the acquisition of Sculptor Capital Management, RITM has expanded its asset management capabilities, managing assets for various investors and aiming to grow its Assets Under Management (AUM) and performance-based fees. This also includes managing Rithm Property Trust.

Debt Profile

As of March 2025, Rithm Capital's total debt on its balance sheet was approximately $32.42 billion USD. The company actively manages its debt, including issuing new notes to redeem existing ones and for general corporate purposes. For instance, in June 2025, Rithm announced a proposed offering of $500 million in senior unsecured notes due 2030, with a portion of the proceeds intended to redeem outstanding 6.250% senior unsecured notes due 2025.

Their debt-to-equity ratio is a key metric to watch, and as of recent reports, it was around 4.05.

Growth Prospects

Rithm Capital's growth prospects appear to be driven by several factors:

  • Diversified Investment Portfolio: The company's broad range of assets helps mitigate risks and provides multiple avenues for revenue generation, especially in varying market conditions.

  • Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships: RITM has a history of strategic acquisitions (e.g., Sculptor Capital Management, Caliber Home Loans) and actively pursues partnerships to expand its market presence and investment opportunities, such as the recent partnership to fund residential transitional loans.

  • Strong Origination and Servicing Segment: The robust performance of its servicing and origination platforms provides a stable revenue stream and allows them to capitalize on the mortgage market.

  • Asset Management Expansion: The growth of its asset management segment, particularly with Sculptor Capital Management, presents an opportunity to increase AUM and earn performance-based fees, diversifying its income further.

  • Adaptability to Market Cycles: Rithm emphasizes its experience in navigating market and economic cycles, positioning it to identify and leverage new debt-related investment opportunities.

  • Analyst Outlook: Analysts generally have a positive outlook on Rithm Capital, with many recommending a "Strong Buy" and projecting an average price target that suggests upside potential. Earnings are forecast to grow annually.

Leverage

Rithm Capital operates with significant leverage, typical for a mortgage REIT and asset manager in the real estate and financial services sector. The company utilizes debt to finance its investment portfolio and operations.

  • Total Debt: As mentioned, their total debt is substantial, reaching over $32 billion.

  • Debt-to-Equity Ratio: While a precise current figure might fluctuate, their debt-to-equity ratio is generally elevated due to the nature of their business, where borrowing is a fundamental part of generating returns on their investments (e.g., through residential mortgage-backed securities, mortgage servicing rights).

  • Interest Expense Sensitivity: A notable weakness is the significant interest expense and warehouse line fees, which can impact net income, especially in a rising interest rate environment. This highlights their sensitivity to market conditions and interest rate fluctuations.

In summary, Rithm Capital has evolved into a diversified asset manager with a strong focus on real estate and credit. Its growth hinges on strategic acquisitions, a robust servicing platform, and expanding asset management capabilities, though its significant debt profile and sensitivity to interest rates remain key factors to monitor.