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To: Vattila who wrote (68978)8/5/2025 7:39:21 PM
From: Joe NYCRespond to of 72133
 
Thanks for the compilation of these and keeping all of the history.



To: Vattila who wrote (68978)8/5/2025 8:19:23 PM
From: neolibRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 72133
 
Thanks once again for the work you put in on this.



To: Vattila who wrote (68978)10/3/2025 9:14:49 AM
From: VattilaRead Replies (3) | Respond to of 72133
 
AMD 2025-Q3 EPS Contest (non-GAAP)

UserEPSRevenueOutlook
Bing Copilot$1.15$8.70B$9.20B
Grok---
Joe NYC---
Kelvin C.P. Wang---
neolib---
Pravin Kamdar---
rzborusa---
Vattila$1.20$8.88B$9.50B
Zacks Estimate$1.17$8.71B$9.07B

Another quarter has completed. How do you feel?

My numbers are at the high end of Zacks estimates range. I am expecting acceleration now that the Instinct MI350X series has launched, and I suspect analysts may underestimate. However, the speed of AMD's AI ramp is highly uncertain.

Let me know your take. Post your numbers to participate!

Background Information

AMD's Q3 outlook: $8.70B ± 0.30B revenue
AMD: Detailed Earnings Estimates - Zacks.com

2025-Q2 results and scoreboards

Message #68978



To: Vattila who wrote (68978)11/4/2025 5:59:04 PM
From: VattilaRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 72133
 
AMD 2025-Q3 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results

Reported Results:$1.20$9.25B$9.60B ± 0.30B
RankUserEPSRevenueOutlook
1Kelvin C.P. Wang$1.20$8.90B$9.50B
2Vattila$1.20$8.88B$9.50B
-Grok$1.20$8.85B$9.40B
3neolib$1.19$9.10B$9.80B
4Joe NYC$1.21$8.90B$9.40B
5rzborusa$1.22$8.94B$9.48B
- Zacks Estimate$1.17$8.72B$9.10B
6Pravin Kamdar$1.25$9.00B$9.45B
-Bing Copilot$1.15$8.70B$9.20B
-Actual$1.20$9.25B$9.60B

While we both hit bullseye, Kelvin beat me on the revenue tie-breaker. Neolib's optimistic entry secured bronze. However, on overall score, Neolib did best, followed by Kelvin and myself. On the leaderboard, Kelvin overtakes Joe. We now all have Zachs and Bing Copilot beat, although Grok maintains a strong position in the middle of the board.

Thanks to all for participating!

---

Scoreboards

Note that, unlike the main EPS Contest, which is primarily ranked by EPS, these boards are ranked by overall score, which is an equally weighted average of subscores. Scores are calculated as (1+error)^-2 per quarter and normalized for the year by sum(scores)/4. The squaring of the denominator in the score calculation is just done to spread out the scores a little. There is no explicit relative weighting of EPS and revenue error, i.e. a 1 cent error in EPS equals a $10M error in revenue.

AMD 2025 EPS Contest Scores

2025 Leaderboard







Rank User Entries EPS score Revenue score Outlook score Overall score
1 Kelvin C.P. Wang 3 0.73 0.48 0.57 0.5901
2 Joe NYC 3 0.72 0.52 0.50 0.5796
3 neolib 3 0.72 0.56 0.44 0.5747
- Grok 3 0.74 0.43 0.49 0.5504
4 Vattila 3 0.74 0.45 0.46 0.5503
5 rzborusa 3 0.72 0.42 0.44 0.5274
- Zacks Estimate 3 0.72 0.40 0.45 0.5218
- Bing Copilot 3 0.69 0.39 0.44 0.5071
6 Pravin Kamdar 2 0.47 0.32 0.34 0.3771







2025 Quarterly average







Rank User Entries EPS score Revenue score Outlook score Overall score
1 Kelvin C.P. Wang 3 0.97 0.64 0.76 0.7868
2 Joe NYC 3 0.96 0.70 0.66 0.7728
3 neolib 3 0.96 0.74 0.59 0.7663
4 Pravin Kamdar 2 0.94 0.65 0.67 0.7543
- Grok 3 0.98 0.57 0.65 0.7338
5 Vattila 3 0.99 0.60 0.62 0.7338
6 rzborusa 3 0.96 0.56 0.59 0.7032
- Zacks Estimate 3 0.96 0.54 0.59 0.6957
- Bing Copilot 3 0.93 0.52 0.59 0.6762


AMD 2024 EPS Contest Scores

2024 Full year scores







RankUserEntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
1Joe NYC40.940.850.860.8830
-Zacks Estimate40.970.820.860.8810
2neolib40.980.880.780.8798
-Bing Copilot40.950.800.780.8447
3Pravin Kamdar40.970.850.720.8439
4rzborusa40.940.870.680.8315
5Kelvin C.P. Wang40.970.870.550.7973
6Vattila40.940.860.560.7890







2024 Quarterly average







RankUserEntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
1Joe NYC40.940.850.860.8830
-Zacks Estimate40.970.820.860.8810
2neolib40.980.880.780.8798
-Bing Copilot40.950.800.780.8447
3Pravin Kamdar40.970.850.720.8439
4rzborusa40.940.870.680.8315
5Kelvin C.P. Wang40.970.870.550.7973
6Vattila40.940.860.560.7890
7TGPTNDR10.890.770.280.6455


AMD 2023 EPS Contest Scores

2023 Full year scores







RankUserEntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
-Zacks Estimate40.970.890.660.8390
1Pravin Kamdar40.940.880.560.7938
2Vattila40.980.890.460.7759
3neolib40.960.800.560.7735
-Bing Chat40.940.830.470.7457
4Joe NYC40.950.800.460.7375
5rzborusa40.950.810.410.7220
6Kelvin C.P. Wang40.950.740.370.6850


AMD 2022 EPS Contest Scores

2022 Full year scores







RankUserEntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
-Zacks Estimate40.920.830.620.7895
1Joe NYC40.820.720.750.7618
2neolib40.900.730.650.7617
3Vattila40.870.840.510.7390
4Pravin Kamdar40.810.710.690.7371
5rzborusa40.810.730.560.7020
6Kelvin C.P. Wang40.840.750.480.6925
7gvatty20.480.380.300.3848
8fastpathguru10.150.100.060.1038







2022 Quarterly average







RankUserEntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
-Zacks Estimate40.920.830.620.7895
1gvatty20.950.750.600.7696
2Joe NYC40.820.720.750.7618
3neolib40.900.730.650.7617
4Vattila40.870.840.510.7390
5Pravin Kamdar40.810.710.690.7371
6rzborusa40.810.730.560.7020
7Kelvin C.P. Wang40.840.750.480.6925
8fastpathguru10.590.420.240.4153


AMD 2021 EPS Contest Scores

2021 Full year scores







RankUserEntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
1Kelvin C.P. Wang40.930.860.720.8397
2Joe NYC40.940.880.690.8367
3rzborusa40.950.780.700.8105
4Pravin Kamdar40.930.750.750.8101
5gvatty40.930.810.690.8068
6Vattila40.920.770.710.7966
-Zacks Estimate40.830.650.530.6694
7neolib30.710.660.610.6614
8engineer10.240.180.210.2111
9fastpathguru10.230.180.150.1852
10eetnoyer10.200.170.100.1556







2021 Quarterly average







RankUserEntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
1neolib30.950.880.820.8819
2engineer10.960.730.840.8445
3Kelvin C.P. Wang40.930.860.720.8397
4Joe NYC40.940.880.690.8367
5rzborusa40.950.780.700.8105
6Pravin Kamdar40.930.750.750.8101
7gvatty40.930.810.690.8068
8Vattila40.920.770.710.7966
9fastpathguru10.920.710.590.7408
-Zacks Estimate40.830.650.530.6694
10eetnoyer10.780.680.400.6222


AMD 2020 EPS Contest Scores

2020 Full year scores







RankUserEntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
1Vattila40.950.850.650.8169
2neolib40.980.800.610.7972
-Zacks Estimate40.940.790.620.7856
3Pravin Kamdar30.720.620.500.6128
4rzborusa30.690.570.470.5812
5Kelvin C.P. Wang10.240.230.170.2150
6jc47410.230.190.190.2020







2020 Quarterly average







RankUserEntriesEPS scoreRevenue scoreOutlook scoreOverall score
1Kelvin C.P. Wang10.960.920.690.8601
2Pravin Kamdar30.960.830.660.8171
3Vattila40.950.850.650.8169
4jc47410.920.740.760.8080
5neolib40.980.800.610.7972
-Zacks Estimate40.940.790.620.7856
6rzborusa30.930.760.630.7749