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To: sixty2nds who wrote (36)8/7/2025 12:57:33 PM
From: Sean Collett  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 83
 
I also was not surprised $QVCGA drew more on the facility as this is a classic prepetition move and since I believe they are heading towards chapter 11 it fits. When you hear the sound of hooves, think horses, not zebras.

Market reaction is meaningless here. Stock could likely bid in a BK filing anyway so I wouldn't read into anything with actual stock moves. I've seen a few companies file and common bids regardless - markets just don't think sometimes and greed often overpowers many minds.

JMO the war chest only gives them real flexibility in the event they file. Otherwise they will bleed out cash as they burned ($156M) this year alone. If they file chapter 11 as a strategy, interest expense is halted during filing so this war chest grows even more since they won't be paying $400M in expense out while they build a plan and submit it. As I wrote here before, they are likely paying six law firms + $100K a month on two restructuring board members so cash moves out fast. The extra draw on the credit facility added $4.54M annually in interest too.

What brain trust is here? John Malone was kicked off the board and his equity stake is worth < $2M so I am not sure this matters to him at 84. If Maffei is so great as a chairman how did they get here to begin with?

Problem is QVC itself is just in decline and there's no clear signs they can turn it. Athens strategy to their new WIN strategy are all great McKinsey designed programs but so far not resulting in revenue. QVC has their storefront on a cruise ship and the cruise ship is sinking faster than they can get their store boarded up and onto the lifeboats to setup elsewhere - what levers get pulled here if not chapter 11 to restructure the debt/interest which buys time?

<< I was expecting worse!>>
And expecting worse does not make reality any less worse. 11% decline is an 11% decline regardless of expectations. I can get a more accurate prediction in a few months but right now as an early guesstimate I can see existing customers decline to 3,690,522-3,736,605 and this will of course drag Q3 revenue down further. I will of course update once we get closer to earnings but so far my model has not caught me offsides with anything so I am not surprised.

Waiting for the 10-Q's to drop so I can dig into the meat and see what's there. I am positioned for a bankruptcy battle though ;)

-Sean