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Technology Stocks : THQ,Inc. (THQI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sandytoes who wrote (3424)	2/24/1998 11:07:00 PM
From: Todd D. Wiener	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 14266

YEEEEEE HAAAAAAAA!!!!!!! When I saw the headline that "NET INCOME SURGES 512%" my Netscape froze up, so I had to restart my computer. Meanwhile, during the agonizing wait, I grabbed my trusty calculator and glanced at last year's Q4 income. I multiplied by 6 and couldn't believe the number! THQ beat my original estimate by 22% (the most optimistic analyst estimate), and I had apparently underestimated their operating leverage and sales of certain games. My god, I was jumping around for a while, and I fell out of my chair several times! This is by far the best quarterly report THQ has ever had, and not just because of the incredible numbers. THQ BEAT THE STREET ESTIMATE BY 75%!!! 75%! SORRY TO SHOUT, BUT I HAVE RARELY BEEN AS POSITIVELY SURPRISED BY AN EARNINGS REPORT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THQ'S return on equity is now in the mid-high 30% range, and their balance sheet looks very great. Farrell will say that it's a "thing of beauty." I suppose we should be happy that the secondary offering took place last year. The WCW comment will likely alarm some pessimists, but let's be honest: There's no reason to be pessimistic about the WCW negotiations. Furthermore, THQ has another 16 months of WCW publishing under the license agreement. My current estimates (which will be raised tomorrow) for 1998 figure that about 43% of total sales will be WCW-related (WCW Nitro for PSX and N64, and WCW NWO for N64). Besides, in a year, THQ will have a lot more cash and it will be bigger than now. The big thing in one year will be Rugrats, Quest 64, and several other new licenses that THQ hasn't yet announced. In addition, there is an excellent likelihood that THQ's 6 upcoming releases for the PC market will add substantially to the company's earnings, even if each title sells only 50 units. What will tomorrow's BUYING PANIC bring? Various valuation models I've been using to estimate the near-term price target indicate a minimum of $31 tomorrow, and a possible $46 in the next 3 months. It's not only important that THQ BEAT ESTIMATES BY 75%, but that THQ's 1997 results BEAT ESTIMATES FOR 1998 BY OVER 15%!!!!!! I wonder what the analysts' new estimate will be. Because I underestimated the Q4 numbers, there's a good chance that my present 1998 estimates are low, too. My 1998 estimate, which is in a high degree of flux right now, is about $1.75. I suspect that it will be closer to my high-end estimate of $2.15 (I mentioned this a few months ago). I hope for everyone's sake that they have been buying THQI shares like there's no tomorrow, because THERE IS NO TOMORROW (at least, not at $24!) Tomorrow, we could see more than 1.5 million shares change hand, as institutions take their first SUBSTANTIAL position in THQI. If THQI shares trade in the $30s tomorrow, as I believe they will, there will be a lot of profit-taking, which will inflate the volume figure for tomorrow. But the buying will likely persist for a few days, and we will have formed a substantial BREAKAWAY GAP (for all you TA fans out there). My present estimate for Q1 is $0.40, but that may increase after tomorrow's conference call. The current street estimate for Q1 is $0.17, I believe. (17 cents? As I've said for 2 years, "Gimme a break!) There are several near-term catalysts for THQI's predicted explosive move upwards: 1) FIRST CALL EARNINGS SURPRISES: THQI 75%...SURPRISE!!! 2) Weedbush Organ upgrading THQI to STRONG BUY from HOLD!?!?! (duh) 3) The other analysts increasing estimates and reiterating STRONG BUY! 4) New brokerage coverage, with higher 1998 estimates! 5) Momentum "investors." 6) TA traders, looking for a breakout as a buy signal. 7) WCW Nitro is selling well, and Q1 results will be reported in 2 months. 8) Quest 64 should be released in Q2! Isn't that enough?? Oh, I almost forgot... 9) All those shorts losing their asses (they should have covered their asses today)! I warned STAGGERLEE and his kind to GET IN WHILE YOU CAN! A few months ago (when I said that $2.15 was my high 1998 estimate), I said that THQI could trade as high as ~$65 in 1998. It still may happen, folks. 'Nuff said for now. My keyboard is damaged from excessive typing force. Looking forward to the sunrise! Lovin' being long! Todd

To: sandytoes who wrote (3424)	2/24/1998 11:49:00 PM
From: Wildman262	Respond to of 14266

What can I say...let me borrow THQ's thesaurus.. I am delighted, thrilled, pleased and fricking peeing in my pants happy!!! How's that? I am having the first solo beer in my home of 12 years, just kicking back and trying to 'drink' it all in. 84 cents...cowabunga. I had 60cents as my private EPS, and 70cents as my dream stars and moon lined up EPS...but 84 cents. Can you say.....Yippee Skippee? This is truly the best EPS report I have ever been a part of. Wow, Golly, Shazamm!! I hope many of us have learned that we CAN learn more than the street thru our collective knowledge. We had this baby figured out. And yes Runamuck, our baby is going to prom and today she was named PROM QUEEN!!!!!