Market Snapshot
| Dow | 44946.12 | +34.86 | (0.08%) | | Nasdaq | 21621.59 | -87.69 | (-0.40%) | | SP 500 | 6449.80 | -18.74 | (-0.29%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1149 | Dec 1583 | Vol 1.15 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 1889 | Dec 2609 | Vol 8.21 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Health Care, Communication Services, Real Estate, Consumer Staples |
| | Weak: Information Technology, Industrials, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Utilities |
Moving the Market
DJIA eclipses new all-time high as UnitedHealth (UNF) surges on 13F disclosures
S&P 500 hits fresh record high before retreating, as chipmakers face pressure
Lingering inflation concerns slightly decreasing rate cut expectations
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Mixed finish despite new record highs
15-Aug-25 16:30 ET
Dow +34.86 at 44946.12, Nasdaq -87.69 at 21621.59, S&P -18.74 at 6449.80
[BRIEFING.COM] The DJIA (+0.1%) and S&P 500 (-0.3%) notched record highs today despite relative weakness across the stock market, which saw the major averages finish mixed for the day.
At its peak, the DJIA set a new all-time high of 45,203.52, though its modest gain was not enough to carry it to a record closing high. The S&P 500 captured a new record high of 6,481.34 today during a brief early stint in positive territory.
The DJIA's advance was underpinned by a strong rally in UnitedHealth (UNH 304.16, +32.67, +12.03%), which traded higher after it was reported that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B 477.20, -1.86, -0.4%) purchased over 5 million shares in UNH last quarter, worth around $1.6 billion.
The move helped a hot health care sector (+1.7%) finish as both the top-performing S&P 500 sector today and this week, with a week-to-date gain of 4.6%.
The communication services sector (+0.5%) also captured a nice gain due to strong leadership in Alphabet (GOOG 204.91, +1.09, +0.53%) and Meta Platforms (META 785.23, +3.10, +0.40%) amid an otherwise lackluster day for mega-cap names.
Elsewhere, the real estate (+0.7%) and consumer staples (+0.1%) sectors round out the four S&P 500 sectors that finished in positive territory, with the materials sector finishing flat.
The information technology sector (-0.8%) faced pressure out of the gate today, with its losses keeping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%) under their flatlines for the majority of the session.
The sector saw weakness in its chipmaker names following disappointing guidance from Applied Materials (AMAT 161.76, -26.48, -14.07%), despite a beat on EPS and revenues.
NVIDIA (NVDA 180.44, -1.58, -0.87%), among others, contributed to a 2.2% loss in the PHLX Semiconductor Index.
Weakness in large tech names saw the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finish with a loss of 0.4%, though the Russell 2000 (-0.6%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.6%) faced similar retreats.
Though today's slide was modest, it was relatively broad-based. Decliners outpaced advancers by a nearly 3-to-2 margin on the NYSE Nasdaq, and six S&P 500 sectors finished with a loss.
Lingering inflation concerns have slightly eroded expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, with the CME FedWatch tool now assigning an 84.9% probability, down from 92.1% the day before. While the drop is modest, it also dampens the odds of additional cuts later in the year.
Today's release of the July Import and Export Price Indexes sent some mixed signals, as the 0.4% increase in import prices clouds the inflation outlook in the sense that it is keeping the market guessing as to whether tariff inflation is going to ramp up in coming months or if this is just a one-time bump in the road.
In a CNBC interview, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (a voting FOMC member) noted that inflation readings have been mixed. He cautioned against overreacting to a single month's data, emphasizing the need to discern which price increases can be disregarded.
U.S. Treasuries ended Friday with losses across the curve, as the 2-year note returned to unchanged for the week while longer tenors extended this week's losses. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.76% (unchanged this week), and the 10-year note yield settled up four basis points to 4.33% (+4 basis points this week).
- Nasdaq Composite: +12.0% YTD
- S&P 500: +9.7% YTD
- DJIA: +5.7% YTD
- Russell 2000: +2.5% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +1.7 YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- July Retail Sales 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior was revised to 0.9% from 0.6%, July Retail Sales ex-auto 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.8% from 0.5%
- The key takeaway from the report, which isn't adjusted for inflation, is that it reflects a decent pace of consumer spending that isn't owed entirely to price increases; however, it does reveal a few points of spending caution, evidenced by the 0.6% decline in electronics and appliance stores, the 1.0% decline in building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers, and the 0.4% decline in food services and drinking places.
- August Empire State Manufacturing 11.9 (Briefing.com consensus 0.0); Prior 5.5
- July Import Prices 0.4%; Prior was revised to -0.1% from 0.1%
- July Import Prices ex-oil 0.3%; Prior was revised to -0.3% from 0.1%
- July Export Prices 0.1%; Prior 0.5%
- July Export Prices ex-ag. 0.1%; Prior 0.5%
- July Industrial Production -0.1% (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%); Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%, July Capacity Utilization 77.5% (Briefing.com consensus 77.5%); Prior was revised to 77.7% from 77.6%
- The key takeaway from the report is that industrial production activity was muted in July, with manufacturing output stalling due to output declining in all nondurable categories.
- June Business Inventories 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%); Prior 0.0%
- August Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim 58.6 (Briefing.com consensus 61.3); Prior 61.7
- The key takeaway from the report is that it marked the first downturn in consumer sentiment in four months, driven by rising worries about inflation.
Market little moved by Trump Putin summit
15-Aug-25 15:25 ET
Dow +81.67 at 44992.93, Nasdaq -78.99 at 21630.29, S&P -13.76 at 6454.78
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages are little changed from previous levels, currently sitting mixed for the day.
There is considerable news coverage surrounding the summit between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, with the two leaders greeting each other in Alaska.
Reports suggest that President Trump will be joined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and envoy Steve Witkoff in the discussions, presumably with their Russian counterparts.
Bloomberg reports that the U.S. is considering sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC if the Russian president does not agree to a ceasefire.
The market has largely ignored developments around this summit, with this week's action focused on economic data and FOMC monetary policy expectations.
Separately, crude oil settled 1.9% lower today at $62.73 per barrel. The energy sector (-0.1%) holds a modest loss for the day.
DJIA outperforms
15-Aug-25 15:00 ET
Dow +106.33 at 45017.59, Nasdaq -78.95 at 21630.33, S&P -9.43 at 6459.11
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.1%) is up from session lows, while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%) trails, and the DJIA (+0.2%) maintains its modest gain.
Six S&P 500 sectors trade in positive territory, with the health care (+1.9%), communication services (+0.9%), and real estate (+0.9%) sectors capturing nice gains.
Four sectors trade below their baselines, as the technology (-0.8%) and financials (-0.8%) sectors are the top laggards.
Meanwhile, the utilities sector trades flat, though a healthy advance in its largest component, NextEra Energy (NEE 76.32, +4.08, +5.64%), masks losses across the majority of its other components.
S&P 500 slips as 3M, Paramount Skydance, and COF lag; Enphase surges on solar tax credit boost
15-Aug-25 14:30 ET
Dow +122.60 at 45033.86, Nasdaq -73.62 at 21635.66, S&P -9.32 at 6459.22
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.14%) is in second place on Friday afternoon, down about 9 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents 3M (MMM 151.82, -4.83, -3.08%), Paramount Skydance (PSKY 14.02, -0.36, -2.50%), and Capital One (COF 215.18, -5.30, -2.40%) dot the bottom of the standings despite a dearth of corporate news.
Meanwhile, Enphase Energy (ENPH 36.98, +4.76, +14.77%) and other solar stocks are higher today as the sector rallies on Treasury guidance clarifying renewable energy tax credit eligibility, boosting sentiment for solar companies.
Gold ends flat but logs 3% weekly drop on strong U.S. data, rate-cut doubts
15-Aug-25 14:00 ET
Dow +163.76 at 45075.02, Nasdaq -47.64 at 21661.64, S&P -4.12 at 6464.42
[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (-0.22%) is today's worst-performing average, down about 48 points.
Gold futures settled less than $1 lower (flat) at $3,382.60/oz, down -3.1% on the week; the decline followed stronger-than-expected U.S. producer price data and lower jobless claims, which lifted Treasury yields and the dollar, reducing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset. The data also cooled expectations for a large Federal Reserve rate cut next month.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.4% to $97.85.
Intel and potential U.S. government stake: A strategic lifeline amid deep, ongoing challenges (INTC)
Beleaguered chip maker Intel (INTC) is trading sharply higher following a Bloomberg report that the Trump administration is exploring a potential equity stake in the chipmaker, possibly utilizing funds from the CHIPS and Science Act. Discussions are in early stages, with no finalized terms or guarantee of a deal, and may involve converting existing CHIPS Act grants -- INTC has already secured $7.86 bln from the Act and a $3 bln Pentagon contract for its Secure Enclave program -- or supplementing them with new funding.
Despite the stock’s rally, the speculative nature of the talks and INTC’s ongoing financial struggles warrant caution as participants assess the potential impact of this rare government intervention.
- The U.S. government’s interest in taking a stake in INTC, an unusual move toward state capitalism, is driven by national security imperatives and the strategic importance of domestic semiconductor production. Semiconductors are critical to everything from consumer electronics to defense systems, and INTC’s struggles to maintain leadership in advanced chip manufacturing -- coupled with delays in its $20 bln Ohio fab project -- pose risks to U.S. technological sovereignty, especially amid tensions with China.
- This development follows a White House meeting on August 11, 2025, between INTC CEO Lip-Bu Tan and President Trump, just days after Trump publicly demanded Tan’s resignation over alleged ties to Chinese companies. The shift from criticism to collaboration suggests that the meeting, which included Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, likely addressed INTC’s strategic role and the potential for a government stake to bolster its domestic manufacturing ambitions, aligning with Trump’s “America First” agenda.
- INTC’s financial and competitive challenges underscore the rationale for government intervention. The company has lost significant ground to competitors like NVIDIA (NVDA), which dominates the AI chip market, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which has gained CPU market share. INTC’s stock has declined 43% over the past two years, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500’s gains, reflecting years of technological missteps and heavy losses in its foundry business.
- Under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who assumed the role in March 2025, INTC has accelerated cost-cutting, including workforce reductions and asset divestitures, while canceling planned factory projects in Poland and Germany and further delaying its Ohio fab to 2030-2031 to preserve capital. A government stake could significantly strengthen INTC’s balance sheet, providing capital to advance its critical 18A process node, which underpins upcoming launches like Clearwater Forest CPUs, and to compete with TSMC (TSM) and Samsung.
- However, ceding equity to the government risks loss of corporate control, potential bureaucratic oversight, and misalignment with shareholder interests, particularly if strategic decisions prioritize national objectives over profitability.
A U.S. government stake in INTC could provide a vital financial lifeline to stabilize its balance sheet and bolster domestic chip production, reinforcing its role as a national security asset. However, the unprecedented move highlights INTC’s profound challenges and introduces risks of reduced corporate autonomy, placing the company’s turnaround efforts and strategic significance under intense scrutiny.
Applied Materials slides despite Q3 upside; Q4 guidance weighing on shares and dragging down peers
Applied Materials (AMAT -13%) is under pressure today after reporting its Q3 (Jul) results last night. This semicap company stayed true to form, delivering a solid EPS beat, with revenue also coming in a good bit above expectations. However, the negative reaction is from its Q4 (Oct) revenue guidance, which was below consensus estimates, reflecting particular weakness in its China business. Additionally, there were several downgrades from analysts (BofA, Summit Insights, DZ bank) this morning.
- In terms of why the guidance was weak, management pointed to three main factors. First, the digestion of capacity in China. In particular, AMAT had a large amount of shipments to China in FY23-24 and now sees its customers moderating their spend. As a result, it expects China to account for 29% of revenues in Q4, down from 35% this quarter. Second, AMAT is assuming its backlog of pending export licenses will not be issued in the next quarter. Finally, management noted uneven demand from leading-edge customers, driven mainly by market concentration and fab timing. This last point is worth pointing out as it differs from what AMAT has said in past quarters.
- Management had expected a steady ramp in leading-edge demand, accelerating through FY25-26, supported by 100% utilization on the leading-edge, increasing capex from cloud service providers, and strong pull from AI-related technologies, particularly in DRAM and HBM. However, the Q4 order pattern has not reflected this trajectory. Particularly, management suggested that companies have been a bit hesitant to make capital commitments given tariffs, trade, and other uncertainties. This is similar to what we heard from ASML (ASML) in its Q2 (Jun) report.
- Turning to Q3 segment performance, Semiconductor Systems, AMAT's largest revenue driver, reported a 10% yr/yr increase in revenue to $5.43 bln, with strength in foundry-logic from customer investments to ramp gate-all-around nodes, partially offset by softer demand in ICAPS nodes. Management noted that DRAM was better than expected, driven by customers investing in advanced DRAM to support AI, while NAND saw a significant increase. Its Applied Global Services (AGS) reported revenue of $1.6 bln, a 1% yr/yr increase, ahead of AMAT's expectations and driven by growth in core services.
- However, reflecting the factors outlined above, AMAT expects Semiconductor Systems revenue to be down 9% yr/yr to $4.7 bln in Q4. AGS is expected to be down 2% yr/yr to $1.6 bln.
- The weak guidance from AMAT has put pressure on others in the semicap space, with peers KLAC Corporation (KLAC -7%), Lam Research (LRCX -7%), and ASML (ASML -1%) all trading lower today, reflecting investor concerns that they may be experiencing similar headwinds.
Despite AMAT's strong Q3 performance, it's clear the company's Q4 guidance is weighing heavily on shares and dragging down the semicap space. What stands out is AMAT's shift in tone regarding demand from leading-edge customers, calling it uneven, with customers being a bit hesitant in their capital commitments. Additionally, the moderation in China spending, its largest revenue geography, is adding to investor caution.
Sandisk beats Q4 EPS and revenue expectations, but stock tumbles on weak Q1 margin outlook (SNDK)
Despite SanDisk (SNDK) delivering a solid Q4 performance, surpassing EPS and revenue consensus expectations, the stock is trading sharply lower. The sell-off is primarily driven by the company’s soft 1Q26 guidance, which projects non-GAAP EPS of $0.70-$0.90, with the midpoint falling below the consensus estimate. Additionally, Q1 gross margin guidance of 28.5%-29.5% disappointed investors expecting closer to 30%, reflecting pressures that are overshadowing an otherwise strong quarterly beat.
- SNDK’s gross margin miss is mainly due to underutilization charges and start-up costs associated with its manufacturing ramp. Underutilization stems from deliberate supply discipline in NAND production, as SNDK and its joint venture partner Kioxia reduce output to stabilize pricing in an undersupplied market. Start-up costs are tied to the transition to BiCS8 (218-layer) NAND technology, which involves higher initial expenses for fab retooling and process optimization. These factors, while temporary, are expected to compress margins in the near term, particularly as the company prioritizes long-term cost efficiencies over short-term profitability.
- In Q4, SNDK’s non-GAAP gross margin improved significantly to 26.4%, up 370 bps from 22.7% in the year-earlier quarter. This expansion was driven by favorable NAND pricing trends due to industry-wide supply cuts, higher mix of premium enterprise SSDs in the Cloud segment, and operational efficiencies from prior cost reductions. The stronger-than-expected gross margin underpinned the EPS beat, as SNDK capitalized on a tightening NAND market and growing demand for high-capacity storage solutions, particularly in AI-driven applications.
- The Cloud end market, though SNDK’s smallest segment at about 10% of total revenue, was the standout performer in Q4, with revenue surging 25% yr/yr to $170 mln. This growth was propelled by robust demand from hyperscalers and enterprise data centers, fueled by AI infrastructure build-outs and increasing storage needs for generative AI and inference workloads. The ramp of SNDK’s BiCS8 NAND technology, offering higher density and lower cost-per-gigabyte, has strengthened its competitive positioning in enterprise SSDs.
- Additionally, the introduction of High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) technology has enhanced performance for AI-driven applications, securing qualifications with Tier 1 hyperscalers, including NVIDIA’s (NVDA) GB300 platform, and driving SNDK’s outperformance in this high-margin segment.
- SNDK’s largest end market, Client, saw modest revenue growth of 3% yr/yr to $1.1 bln. Tailwinds included the ongoing PC refresh cycle, spurred by Windows 10’s end-of-life in 2025 and rising demand for AI-enabled devices requiring higher-capacity SSDs. However, headwinds such as macroeconomic uncertainty and weaker-than-expected smartphone demand partially offset gains, leading to a 10% sequential decline in client SSD revenue.
- The Consumer end market posted solid growth of 12% yr/yr to $585 mln. Key drivers included strong retail demand for external SSDs and flash drives, particularly in emerging markets, and increased storage capacities in consumer electronics like tablets and low-end smartphones. SNDK’s strategic focus on higher-margin branded products, coupled with disciplined inventory management, helped mitigate pricing pressures from low-cost competitors like YMTC. However, the Consumer segment remains the most commoditized, with margins constrained by cyclical demand and competitive dynamics.
SNDK’s Q4 results showcased strong execution, with gross margin expansion and exceptional Cloud segment growth highlighting its leadership in NAND-based storage solutions. However, the soft Q1 gross margin and EPS guidance, driven by underutilization and BiCS8 start-up costs, has overshadowed these achievements.
Twilio twirls higher following addition to S&P MidCap 400, but investors want better results (TWLO)
Twilio (TWLO +4%) is twirling higher following news last night it will join the S&P MidCap 400 prior to the open on August 19. There were also a lot of 13F filings last night. Viking Global (Andreas Halvorsen) disclosed that it sold 256K share in Q2, which closed out its position in TWLO. However, investors seem to be focusing more on the S&P addition.
- This was some needed good news for Twilio after the stock gapped lower last week following its Q2 earnings report. Twilio develops APIs that are used by its customers to plug communication abilities (phone calls, text messaging via SMS, video etc.) into their apps. When you are communicating with your Uber driver, you are using Twilio.
- Twilio beat handily on Q2 EPS with more modest upside revs. However, Twilio was able to notch its third consecutive double-digit top line growth at +13.5% year/year to a record $1.23 bln. That followed five consecutive quarters of growth below 10%, so that has been good to see.
- Revenue for its much larger Communications (messaging, voice) business grew 14% to $1.153 bln. Messaging revenue growth accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter, while Twilio was able to generate double-digit voice revenue growth for the first time in two years. Strong uptake among AI startups in its self-serve business contributed to the acceleration in voice revenue growth. The company also operates its Segment (customer data platform) business. Revenue in Q2 was flat yr/yr at $75 mln.
- Twilio's Q3 guidance spooked investors with downside EPS but upside revenue. Usually, when we see that combination, it means margins are a problem area. That seems to be the case with Twilio as Q2 non-GAAP gross margin fell to 50.7% from 53.3% a year ago although non-GAAP operating margin improved to 18.0% from 16.2%.
- While it was good to see Communications grow nicely in Q2, it carries a lower gross margin profile than Segment. Drilling down a bit, Communications growth was led by accelerating messaging and voice growth. However, messaging is lower margin and it was the primary driver of Twilio's overall gross margin decline in Q2 with FX playing a smaller role. Twilio is taking steps to stabilize and improve gross margins, including price increases in both messaging and voice in the US.
Clearly, investors are pleased to see Twilio make it into the S&P MidCap 400. This will require funds that track this index to buy shares. It is also a big milestone for the company and raises its profile. However, investors want to see better results from its operating business, especially in terms of margins. Also, sales for Segment have stagnated. Investors want to see that business on more of a growth trajectory as the goal has been to integrate Segment with its other offerings, but slowing growth is making some question if that will be a future driver of the business.
Birkenstock trades lower despite modest EPS beat as revenue was a bit on the soft side
Birkenstock (BIRK -4%) is trading lower today after reporting its Q3 (Jun) results last night. This German footwear company, known for its cork-footbed sandals, reported a slight EPS beat, continuing a trend seen over the past three quarters. Revenue was a bit shy of consensus estimates, growing 12.4% yr/yr to €635 mln on a reported basis. Additionally, revenue growth was its lowest in the last 7 quarters.
- Revenue was impacted by a significant FX-related headwind, which management noted was the largest it has seen since going public. FX caused a 330-bps drag on revenue growth, lowered gross margin by 60 bps, and adjusted EBITDA margin by 70 bps. That said, the company significantly improved its profitability despite the headwind. Gross margin was up 100 bps to 60.5%, and EBITDA margin was up 140 bps to 34.4%, its best third quarter margin, driven by better selling prices and cost absorption related to its facility.
- Management noted that it continues to see a shift towards in-person shopping, which is important as it benefits its B2B channels. B2B was up 15% yr/yr on a reported basis, and BIRK now expects B2B growth to outpace DTC in Q4 (Sep) and for FY25. Notably, within its B2B channel, over 90% of the growth came from existing doors.
- In the Americas, revenue was up 10% yr/yr on a reported basis. Management noted that B2B was particularly strong and, importantly, saw no pushbacks or cancellations following its July 1 price increases. In EMEA, revenue increased 13% yr/yr on a reported basis with its channels both having double digit growth. BIRK noted its online business was slower than planned in April and May, but in June saw a reacceleration. Notably, it saw healthy growth in its own retail, with same-store sales up in the mid-teens. Finally, APAC continues to be its fastest growing region, with 21% yr/yr revenue growth on a reported basis. China was particularly strong, accounting for 20% of APAC revenue. It is important to note that while double-digit growth is encouraging, revenue growth decelerated in every region compared to Q2.
- Regarding tariffs, management said it can manage the baseline 15% EU rate through price actions and other levers, particularly because of its vertical integration. Importantly, the demand in Q3 exceeded BIRK's expectations, and looking ahead, BIRK noted that demand accelerated through July and into the second week of August as back-to-school shopping picks up. This is important as it has not seen a slowdown in consumer demand and is not seeing an impact from its price increases. BIRK, however, does seem to have a capacity issue, noting that it is a current struggle and doesn't always have the capacity to meet demand.
Overall, there are plenty of positives in BIRK's report, including resilient demand despite price increases and encouraging early reads on back-to-school shopping. So why is the stock lower today? Revenue was a bit on the soft side, which is partly due to FX headwinds. Also, BIRK saw a deceleration in growth across the regions it serves. Additionally, while demand remains resilient, we think the capacity constraints could limit BIRK's ability to capitalize on the back-to-school season. Despite these negatives, we're a little surprised the stock is lower on this report because much of the revenue miss was FX-related and its customer held up pretty well considering the macro headwinds.
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