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Technology Stocks : Tesla EVs - TSLA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric who wrote (26237)	8/16/2025 12:01:39 AM
From: i-node	1 Recommendation Recommended By longz Respond to of 26717

One can easily forecast a significant drop in revenue this year, and perhaps a recover to 110B or so the following year. If that happens, for '25 they'll be okay because the credits last through about 2/3-3/4 of the year. But next year, if they recover -- which they will IMO (or I would not be a stockholder) and maybe earn 110B, they'd earn only around 9B after taxes. That's okay. That's why we have financial statements. The loss of these credits are no more of a disadvantage to other EV makers than to Tesla, and this is part of of living. But they are going to massive expenditures for capex and R&D expenditures over the coming couple years - notably on the plant expansions and software development costs (fully deductible as R&D). Basically, as 25-30% increase YoY. (They will also use accelerated "bonus" depreciation where possible on these assets). I think it is highly unlikely they will produce net losses in either '25 or '26. Tesla has not been reliant on these credits for its livelihood. It has a damned clean balance sheet, lacks most of the big problems faced by majors like dealerships, recalls, archaic systems (both within cars and within dealerships), so many problems. I think Tesla has a huge advantage in this respect. Five years from now I don't really know what things will look like but I would hesitate to get balled up about these credits. The credits are not the business model.

To: Eric who wrote (26237)	8/24/2025 12:28:32 PM
From: i-node	2 Recommendations Recommended By longz manning18 Respond to of 26717

Tesla Banked $11 Billion By Selling Regulatory Credits. Now The Party's Over. You keep going on about this. It is 11B over ~14 years. This is not going to be a problem for Tesla. You may recall not so long ago Musk publicly stating, take the credits. Just do it fairly. If you take them from Tesla take them from everyone. The effect will be to increase the prices on EVs. Government should not be subsidizing ANY business. That is a failing of government and should not be done other than the most rare circumstances (e.g., orphaned drug support). Tesla will adjust accordingly. The union shops, not-so-much.