Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (216008)	8/18/2025 12:47:48 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 219835

we are simply, at the moment, waiting for catalyst current context, ... (1) according to orban of Hungary and others, - Russia won war, - China won trade, - US harvested the coalition of the willing, - EU, Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, India, ... got trumped, sideways, hard, and repeatedly - Ukraine disappearing (2) gold, silver, equities, bonds, all taking respite before doing whatever needs doing edition.cnn.com Trump tells Zelensky to give up Crimea and agree to never join NATO edition.cnn.com Trump relaxed restrictions on a key AI chip for China. Beijing isn’t saying thank you ft.com Crypto group backed by Trump sons hunts for bitcoin companies in Asia whilst we wait, we bore unless we speculate, always dangerous, especially now suggest just watch and brief and to end-summer

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (216008)	8/22/2025 6:37:23 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 219835

re <<boring shit>> did a study this day, and am feeling queasy, because given the uncertainties must only wait, grin, and hold through, across, to the other side should such a crash happen. Am only attaching the conclusions / summaries, and skipping all the thinking process and deliberative scripts and branches (1) Above are PDF files of my dialogue with DeepSeek. Following on, a series of questions to you, (1) Question, as of today, 2025 - 08 -22, are the kindling of the USA equity market crash in place, and if so, will the USA equity market crash 2025 Sept / Oct ? or more likely later crash, say 2026 Q1 / Q2 ? What about not-at-all ? What is the most likely play-out of the script ? ... (2) What are the historical precedents for a market crash in a high-inflation environment? (3) what happens to gold / GLD and gold mining (GDX / GDXJ) valuation during and through the envisioned crash should it happen ? (4) Re <<Historical precedents (gold in 2008 vs. 2020 crashes)>> - how different? and (2) Re <<How miners' debt levels impact their crisis response>> - which of my gold mining shares are at risk (I hold AEM, B, BTG, DRD, FNV, GDX, GDXJ, LUG, NEM, OR, PAAS, SA, and WPM) (5) Please simulate how each position might move +/- if gold swings ±$250? (6) In the coming general USA equity market crash will gold and gold mining behave closer to 2008 case and how? the macro would anticipate an almost ('almost') inevitable bail out? what about a bail in? blah blah blah ... about cash flow, debt level, etc etc (7) In such a crash, how might HK-listed China shares behave, specifically BYD 1211.hk, Hua Hong 1347.hk, Shanghai Fudan 1385.hk, Wuxi Biologics 2269.hk, concord Healthcare 2453.hk, GLD 2840.hk, Zijin Mining 2899.hk, Jiangxi Copper 0358.hk, CATL 3750.hk, HKEX 0388.hk, Tencent 0700.hk, CNOOC 0883.hk, China Mobile 0941.hk, SMIC 0981.hk, Alibaba 9988.hk (8) How might BTC and ETH behave during and through such a crash, and will USDT run into difficulties ? (9) So, better to park the crypto-portion of the capital in PAXG rather than in USDT ? (10) Any difference, as far as you are concerned, between USDT vs USDC ? (11) How might USD behave into, during, and through such a crash? (12) What if there is no crash before end-2025? or severely delayed crash, well into 2026 ? What might cause such play-out? (13) How bad for the overall equities market in % terms ? ... meaning we first get a drip-drip-drip down to ~5,500 as a prologue

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (216008)	8/22/2025 7:06:20 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 219835

following up, the implication of one script Message 35233302 must ride the tiger, then hold it by its tail Lyrics I want to ride the tiger I want to ride the tiger It will be black and white in the dead of night Eyes flashing in the clear moonlight I want to ride the tiger. It?s like a tear in the hands of a western man Tell you about salt, carbon and water But a tear to a chinese man He?ll tell you about sadness and sorrow or the love of a man and A woman. I want to ride the tiger I want to sail through the risin? sun for you and you We got something to learn from the other side Something to give, we got nothing to hide I want to ride the tiger. Black wants out of the streets Yellow wants the country Red wants the country back And white wants out of this world Sing - sing to the sky I want to ride the tiger I want to ride the tiger. Look to the summer of seventy-five All the world is gonna come alive Do you want to ride the tiger? It?s like a tear in the hands of a western man Tell you about salt, carbon and water But a tear to an oriental man He?ll tell you about sadness and sorrow or the love of a man and A woman.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (216008)	8/22/2025 10:05:42 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 219835

re <<boring shit>> ... tracking well, and so encouraging, per the 'big rise before bigger fall' ... following up Message 35233321

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (216008)	8/23/2025 2:46:25 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219835

from behind the curtain, in alignment with my current premise, that China shares and gold shares are the same-same even if not perfectly tracking zerohedge.com China Stocks Hit New 10 Year HIgh, On Verge Of Historic Breakout BY TYLER DURDEN SATURDAY, AUG 23, 2025 - 05:20 AM Just a few days after we discussed how China's Shanghai Composite had quietly made a fresh 10 year high when it breached the 3,700 level, overnight the SHCOMP made fresher 10 year highs now reclaiming 3800 level just days after breaching 3700. Or, as Goldman trader Fred Yin points out, "it took about 3 weeks from 3500 to 3600, another 3 weeks from 3600 to 3700" and then 3 days to go from 3700 to 3800. Clearly the move in China is accelerating. China's CSI300 index - the rough onshore Chinese stocks equivalent of the S&P - recorded its biggest weekly rise since November. Gains in local chipmakers provided an added tailwind Friday after a report that US rival Nvidia has instructed component makers to stop production related to its H20 AI chips. Most important, however, the chart below shows that the SHCOMP is now on the verge of a historic trendline breakout, one which could result in the next Chinese stock bubble in the coming weeks and months. [url=][/url] The Goldman trader then further details a few things that boosted sentiment for Chinese equities further today: DeepSeek launched the latest V3.1, and the company highlighted the fact the UE8M0 FP8 was designed with the next-gen domestic chips in mind, suggesting domestic AI industry is on the cusp of a new era of software/hardware collaboration. Nvidia reportedly is looking to halt H20 chips production after China started cracking down on purchases. Liquidity remains ample: PBOC injects a net 123.2BN yuan of short-term cash via reverse repo, bringing the weekly total to 1.37t yuan - the biggest weekly injection since Jan. Preference for risk assets: China’s 30y govt bond auction fetched the highest yield since Dec, while the bid-to-cover ratio dropped to the lowest since Oct. The SSE STAR50 (tech/innovation board also called the Chinese equivalent of the Nasdaq) surged 8.6% on the day, the 3rd largest daily gain since inception [url=][/url] Thematically, AI/Semis/Resilient Tech (e.g. domestic focused) names got lifted ... [url=][/url] ...at the cost of “old economy” plays [url=][/url] Similar to earlier this week, the momentum higher in China A was well-supported by trading activity in the market: turnover was above 2 tn yuan for the 8th day in a row, the longest such stretch on record [url=][/url] There was a rebound in momentum during Asia session so Korea/Japan inflows picked up today compared to earlier this week, but China A-shares still skewed net buyer on the Goldman cash desk. Long Onlies again drove the buy skew of 1.5x, making up a majority of the net inflow in A-shares on the GS high touch desk, however Healthcare dominated instead while Info Tech was ranked 2nd most net bought sector. Industrials / Consumer Disc / Energy were all net sold. HF flows were light, with only small buying in Industrials. [url=][/url] Outside of the Goldman client base, there is also increasing positioning by external institutions as well. Insurance funds have been flowing in: this week we see PingAn announced increased holding in China Pacific, China Life and Agri bank. Mutual funds equity positioning picked up in Aug too. [url=][/url] In addition to institutional flow, retail buying remains strong: Chinese brokerage firms reported dramatic new account opening surges this month, with some Shanghai brokerage branches seeing 200-300% MoM growth, though still below Sep/Oct rally peak levels. Tied to that, margin balances continue to surge and at a faster pace. Daily net margin buying reached 39bn yuan on Tuesday, 3rd highest on record. [url=][/url] Elsewhere, after a sharp spike last week, funding levels for CSI300/500/1000 are stabilizing: for CSI1000 1y tenor that’s just above 10% annualized (e.g. the outperformance you’d collect from going long on swap). [url=][/url] So, where do Chinese stocks go from here? According to Goldman's Yun, with the amount of dry powder still left on the sidelines, those looking to participate in the China rally should look at what retail flows have been and will likely be chasing. To help with that decision, the table is worth one's time if still deciding how to gain access to China: CSI1000 and CSI500 has 61% and 51% retail ownership vs 2.5% and 1.4% foreign ownership CSI1000 also stands out for being most exposed to margin trading at US$62b (3.5% of market cap) The higher retail ownership, higher turnover velocity, and higher exposure to margin trading make S/MID indices more sensitive to market performance, sentiment and liquidity conditions. [url=][/url] SMID cap indices also have more balanced sector weights, and higher exposure to high-tech manufacturing areas aligned with strategic policy directions (15th Five Year Plan coming out in Oct). CSI1000 has only ~10% weights in traditional sectors such as Financials, Real Estate, Energy and Utilities, while Tech Hardware & Software and Health Care account for 25% and 12% of CSI1000. [url=][/url] More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.