Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (216009)	8/20/2025 11:10:15 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217561

Never cared for Michael. Do listen to what he has to say, particularly about passive-flows and how it opens up the gate to not-good place. Recommend a view.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (216009)	8/21/2025 11:20:48 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217561

quite funny, and shows that Team Trump very pragmatically flexible, meaning NOT-actually-insane watch & brief, re ai / predictions, per hmmmnnnn, might be and suspect important (get past the bit about Pelosi)

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (216009)	8/22/2025 12:05:31 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217561

pay no attention, just the Armstrong, totally boring, and as we are about to enter September to experience October also, do not stay home but do tourism Message 35233232 The September Crash? THURSDAY, AUGUST 21, 2025 BY: MARTIN ARMSTRONG The stock market often peaks at the beginning of September, as in 1929 and 1987, which gets to the heart of market psychology, historical trends, and perhaps the repeating of history. The joke always was that after spending the summer with the wife and kids and finding out how much the August vacation cost, they start selling after Labor Day to pay the bills. Of course, markets have peaked many times other than August/September, and not all crashes are confined to October. In 1998, the market peaked intraday precisely on the ECM date of July 20th. The market was backing off into August, and then the crash started in September and continued into October. Historical data shows that the third quarter (July, August, September) is often the weakest period of the year for the stock market. There are notable exceptions where Q3 did contain a significant peak, and these events are seared into financial memory: The Infamous 1929 Peak: The Dow peaked on September 3, 1929, right in the heart of Q3, before the catastrophic crash that began in October. This is a huge, historical outlier that shapes perception. The 1987 Peak: Before the Black Monday crash, the market peaked in late August 1987. The 1998 Peak: Long-Term Capital Management Crisis, Russian Default. The COVID Peak (2020): After the crash in March 2020, the market bottomed and then soared, reclaiming its pre-pandemic high in August 2020 (a Q3 peak before continuing its rally). The 2023 Peak: The market rally peaked in late July 2023 before a significant sell-off in August and September. Our Timing Array has a target for August every year for a possible temporary high. Yet look closely at this array. September is NOT a Directional Change, but it is a singleton with higher volatility. This suggests that we can see a correction, but there is a higher probability that this may be just a singleton or a Knee-Jerk Reaction that unfolds as a bear trap. It looks like we should start to see some shifting in the trend next week into the first week of September. The rumor running around is that France has $71 billion of frozen Russian assets. The deficits in France bring it close to breaking every rule of the EU. The suddle-but is that Macron has done everything to block any peace deal in part because he has had his hand in the Russian cookie jar. EuroClear has $300 billion+. The EU fights against peace so they can also keep that money. Macron has rejected any limitation on the Ukrainian army, when my sources have confirmed that Ukraine has lost approaching 2 million dead soldiers and untold numbers of wounded. There are so many markets all showing August as a key target. This tends to suggest that we are not dealing with a simple fundamental of a single market. We are still caught up in this geopolitical parade with the Western Press, so hateful it is nuts. All they are preaching is war. Even Foreign Policy, which I expected to be more professional, wrote: "The combination of that weird summit in Alaska with Vladimir Putin and the only slightly less bizarre gathering of NATO leaders in Washington, was the latest reminder that U.S. President Donald Trump is a terrible negotiator, a true master of the “art of the giveaway.” He doesn’t prepare, doesn’t have subordinates lay the groundwork beforehand, and arrives at each meeting not knowing what he wants or where his red lines are. He has no strategy and isn’t interested in the details, so he just wings it." NEVER in my entire life have I read such jibberish from a magazine that was once head and shoulders above everyone else. This is what I would expect from CNN or The Economist. When you enter a high-stakes game with all the parties stabbing you in the back, you have to wing it. There is NOT a single EU member that wanted peace, and Zelensky was saying his constitution forbids surrendering any territory, so either Russia exists and surrenders everything, or there is no peace. All the world leaders coming to Washington and secretly meeting with Zelensky at the Ukrainian Embassy in advance has NEVER happened in history. They would get together ONLY for a G20 meeting - NEVER a summit like this. They fly here to try to persuade Trump to back Zelensky and wage war against Russia. I could not believe the nonsense the Foreign Policy wrote. They are clearly getting their orders from the Neocons and NATO. We have a few rough weeks ahead. Be mindful that the computer has not changed its forecast. The EU is jockeying for position. Beware of November. We will look more closely into that.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (216009)	8/22/2025 12:28:55 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217561

btw, re man-made gold talked about by Green Message 35231938 , I am not even remotely concerned, because should such made-gold make economic sense, our gold would be valued at $50M per troy oz, and should such be so, perhaps all for the best DeepSeek study

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (216009)	8/26/2025 7:17:56 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217561

Btw, Sony PlayStations prices rise range between 7-15% depending on model Inflation diffusion happening in USA, and no, Sony unlikely to make PlayStations in USA, a best-guess

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (216009)	8/27/2025 12:55:01 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217561

… and so starts

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (216009)	8/27/2025 1:10:52 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217561

Uk, France and Germany all put-a-fork-in-it done Uk might have to be IMF-ed as once did in the ‘70s The disease is chronic and progressive The cure is not-good Japan going same way And as U.S.A. going trade-restrictive, domestics shall have to fund the Treasury Since China dropped to #3 on t-bill list, UK and Japan plugged void But the two, uk and Japan are weaklings Euro, GBP, CHF, and JPY are shortable Together with what Armstrong had to say, the next few months might turn bloodcurdling

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (216009)	8/27/2025 1:33:49 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217561

Tempo picking up, suspect not all noise

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (216009)	8/28/2025 4:23:20 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217561

flickering candles bloomberg.com Former UK Premier Liz Truss Warns of Central Bank Reckoning Ahead Liz Truss, the former UK premier who has blamed the Bank of England for her historically short tenure, praised US President Donald Trump for bringing the world’s central banks closer to what she said was a needed reckoning. Truss said during an appearance on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast that she was sympathetic to Trump’s criticism of the US Federal Reserve. Monetary policy was too important to be left to unelected bureaucrats, said the former Conservative prime minister, who was forced to leave Downing Street after just 49 days in 2022, due largely to a calamitous market reaction to her so-called mini-budget. “The Bank of England needs to be accountable to politicians — the current system doesn’t work,” she said. “There is a reckoning coming for the central banks, not just in Britain, but also in the United States, also the ECB,” she said referring to the European Central Bank. Her comments show how Trump’s efforts to roll back the decades-old consensus on the value of independent monetary policy has an eager audience in some of the world’s largest economies. Trump has heaped criticism on Fed Chair Jerome Powell for his perceived reluctance to slash interest rates and this week announced that he had fired Fed board member Lisa Cook, despite her argument that he lacks clear authority to do so. In the UK, officials for the populist Reform UK, which has led public opinion polls for months, have suggested they might be willing to rein in some of the BOE’s powers. And Reform’s leader, Nigel Farage— a long-time Trump supporter — has privately discussed the possibility of taking back independence from the central bank, Bloomberg reported in June, citing people familiar with the discussions. In her interview, Truss again blamed the BOE, the Treasury and the Office for Budget Responsibility for forcing her from office after the shortest-ever tenure for a British prime minister. She said central banks have amassed too much power and need to be more accountable for what they’ve done to widen inequality and make it harder for young Britons to buy a house. “As a democrat — somebody that believes in democracy — I just think it’s wrong that people should be making those decisions and not be accountable to the electorate,” Truss told Odd Lots. “It’s also very difficult, as I found as prime minister, to combine fiscal and monetary policy if you don’t hold one of the levers. I think it’s got to change.” The BOE’s role in the mini-budget debacle is complicated. While Truss has criticized them for failing to properly regulate pension funds, fueling the gilt selloff that precipitated her ouster, the BOE also came to her government’s aid with a support package worth as much as £100 billion ($130 billion). Truss — a strong supporter of Trump’s populism and an advocate of low taxes — has persistently argued she was brought down by an immovable, conspiratorial establishment. In the interview, she cited “the IMF, the World Bank, the central banks meeting regularly” among the network of institutions that she was concerned about. Liz TrussPhotographer: Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg “You are operating in a stormy sea where there are people out there who want you to fail, not just your political opponents, but also the institutional opponents,” she said. “In the case of the Bank of England, or the people sitting on the Federal Reserve, or civil servants within the Treasury, these people are out there creating their own waves.” Truss was damning about Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and expressed skepticism about Farage. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is “essentially taking dictation from the Bank of England and the Treasury about what she should do,” Truss said, without offering evidence. “We are in an economic doom loop of higher taxes, lower growth, higher debt, and it’s very difficult now to see the political way out,” she said. “Even if Nigel Farage gets elected in 2029 — and currently he’s the bookies’ favorite — if the bureaucracy isn’t changed, if there isn’t fundamental change to the way Britain is run, nothing will alter.” Asked whether she would join Reform, she said she was “not really thinking about party politics at the moment because my whole experience of being in government was that the power was not in the hands of the politicians.”