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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3552)	2/24/1998 11:57:00 PM
From: Yamakita	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

I just listened to ETEC's CC. Not exactly a show of confidence by the principals. CFO said that service margins will continue to decline. Operating expenses were signficantly higher than expected, cash decreased, R&D expenses way up, inventories up $9.7 million, liabilities increased, Japanese customers are "reassessing" their global strategies. Also said it would be prudent to exercise caution in growth projections over the next 12 months. CEO Cooper was stumbling and inarticulate. Doesn't sound like a bad short at all. I will probably take a position if it doesn't crash tomorrow.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3552)	2/24/1998 11:59:00 PM
From: JPM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

here's some #s on ATHM... most possible customers i can reasonably see paying $30/month for cable modem service... 10mm that's assuming all AOL users get ATHM... of the $30, ATHM gets $10 at most i believe... or $120/ yr that's $120 X 10MM = 1.2Bill in revs/yr... and that's max I think if all goes well... with current market cap of 4.7Bill... that's about 4x best rev. scenario... conclusion... way overpriced... i think it can go a bit higher in the short term, but its dead meat in the long run... and one more thought... the could after all run into competition