Market Snapshot
| Dow | 45636.90 | +71.67 | (0.16%) | | Nasdaq | 21703.77 | +115.02 | (0.53%) | | SP 500 | 6501.86 | +20.46 | (0.32%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1401 | Dec 1299 | Vol 949.37 mln | | Nasdaq | Adv 2410 | Dec 2041 | Vol 7.85 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Communication Services, Information Technology, Energy |
| | Weak: Health Care, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Real Estate |
Moving the Market
Steady improvement in NVIDIA after an early slide following the company's earnings report
Strong performances across other mega-cap names
Q2 GDP was revised up, aided by an upward revision to consumer spending
Initial jobless claims remain at low levels that refute the notion that the labor market is weak
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S&P 500 captures record highs following NVIDIA's earnings
28-Aug-25 16:30 ET
Dow +71.67 at 45636.90, Nasdaq +115.02 at 21703.77, S&P +20.46 at 6501.86
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market's advance pushed the S&P 500 (+0.3%) to record intraday (6,508.23) and closing (6,501.90) highs for the second consecutive day, while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) came up just shy of its own closing high, and the DJIA (+0.2%) finished with a more modest gain.
Stocks saw a decent opening push that followed an upbeat Q2 GDP revision and another low initial jobless claims report, but an early 2.5% slide in NVIDIA (NVDA 180.17, -1.43, -0.79%) made for a bumpy morning that seated the major averages in negative territory.
NVIDIA's Q2 results, which were reported yesterday after the close, were a mixed bag. While both earnings and revenue exceeded expectations, the upside relative to consensus estimates was relatively modest. The company's guidance for Q3 matched analysts' forecasts, breaking from its usual pattern of beating and raising targets. Data Center revenue jumped 56% year-over-year to $41.1 billion but fell short of Street estimates due to a $4 billion sequential decline in H20 revenue, which was impacted by export restrictions. No H20 sales to China occurred in Q2, and none are anticipated for Q3.
The stock would ultimately close much improved from its session lows, bolstering an otherwise strong day from chipmakers that saw the PHLX Semiconductor Index finish with a 0.5% gain. The broader information technology sector advanced 0.7% as well.
The communication services sector (+0.9%) finished as the best-performing S&P 500 sector, with strength in its mega-cap components Alphabet (GOOG 212.37, +4.16, +2.00%) and Meta Platforms (META 751.11, +3.73, +0.50%) underpinning the gain.
Mega-cap strength played a key role in today's record-setting advance, as the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.3%) outperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-0.1%). The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished with a 0.6% gain.
Outside of the mega-cap space, the energy sector (+0.7%) rounded out the top three S&P 500 sectors, benefitting from crude oil futures settling today's session $0.48 higher (+0.8%) at $64.62 per barrel.
The consumer discretionary (+0.3%), financials (+0.2%), and industrials (+0.2%) sectors also captured modest gains. The materials sector finished flat.
Losses in declining sectors were relatively modest today. The defensive-oriented utilities (-0.9%), consumer staples (-0.6%), and health care (-0.5%) sectors were the biggest losers, while the real estate sector (-0.3%) also retreated.
Retailer stocks were another point of relative weakness after a slate of household names, such as Best Buy (BBY 72.66, -2.79, -3.70%), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS 215.08, -10.93, -4.84%), Dollar General (DG 111.71, +0.51, +0.46%), and Five Below (FIVE 150.03, +5.62, +3.89%), reported earnings. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (-0.9%) improved throughout the session with the broader market, closing 0.4 percentage points above its session lows.
With the market successfully navigating NVIDIA's earnings, attention now turns to tomorrow's PCE report, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting remained steady at 87.2%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Speaking of the next FOMC meeting, Bloomberg reported that Fed Governor nominee Stephen Miran's confirmation process may be fast-tracked to appoint him before the gathering. In related news, Fed Governor Lisa Cook filed a suit challenging her dismissal by President Trump, with Bloomberg reporting that Ms. Cook's lawyers suggest a "clerical error" is behind the mortgage issues. An initial hearing is scheduled for tomorrow morning.
U.S. Treasuries of most tenors climbed on Thursday while the 2-year note underperformed after yesterday's show of relative strength. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.64%, and the 10-year note yield settled down three basis points to 4.21%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +12.4% YTD
- S&P 500: +10.6% YTD
- DJIA: +7.3% YTD
- Russell 2000: +6.7% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +4.8% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- Q2 GDP - Second Estimate 3.3% (Briefing.com consensus 3.0%); Prior 3.0%, Q2 GDP Deflator - Second Estimate 2.0% (Briefing.com consensus 2.0%); Prior 2.0%
- The key takeaway from the report is that the Q2 strength revolved around the decrease in imports (-29.8%), which is a subtraction in the calculation of GDP. The next exports component contributed 4.95 percentage points to Q2 GDP growth versus 4.99 points with the advance estimate.
- Weekly Initial Claims 229K (Briefing.com consensus 236K); Prior was revised to 234K from 235K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.954 mln; Prior was revised to 1.961 mln from 1.972 mln
- The key takeaway from the report is that initial jobless claims—a leading indicator-- continue to run at low levels, refuting the notion that the labor market is weak. Granted, the labor market has softened a bit, but it is not weak.
- July Pending Home Sales -0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior -0.8%
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite seek record closing highs
28-Aug-25 15:25 ET
Dow +70.80 at 45636.03, Nasdaq +127.17 at 21715.92, S&P +22.15 at 6503.55
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.4%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%) both trade above their record closing levels as the market enters the final half hour of trading.
An early slide in NVIDIA (NVDA 180.64, -0.96, -0.53%) following the company's earnings report made for a bumpy morning in the stock market, but strong performances in other mega-cap names, encouraging economic data, and a lack of headwind headlines have the major averages plotting new session highs just before the close.
Investor focus now turns to tomorrow's PCE report as expectations for a rate cut at the ever-closer September FOMC meeting have held steady throughout the week.
In other Fed news, Bloomberg reports that Fed Governor Lisa Cook's lawyers suggest that a "clerical error" is behind the mortgage issues that prompted her firing by President Trump.
S&P 500 pushing further into record territory
28-Aug-25 15:00 ET
Dow +39.51 at 45604.74, Nasdaq +141.28 at 21730.03, S&P +21.71 at 6503.11
[BRIEFING.COM] Widening gains across today's top-performing sectors have the S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%), and DJIA (+0.1%) charting new session highs.
At this point, new session highs for the S&P 500 equate to new record high intraday levels, with the index crossing the 6,500 level for the first time in history as it looks to surpass yesterday's record closing high of 6,481.40.
The information technology sector (+0.9%) now challenges the communication services sector (+0.9%) as the best-performing S&P 500 sector today, as NVIDIA (NVDA 181.09, -0.51, -0.28%) climbs closer to its baseline after a 2.5% slide this morning.
Elsewhere in the technology sector, The Financial Times reports that the Trump administration's stake in Intel (INTC 24.90, +0.04, +0.18%) was designed to block the company from selling its manufacturing unit.
S&P 500 +0.3% as ServiceNow, Trade Desk, Agilent rise; Brown-Forman slides on guidance cut
28-Aug-25 14:30 ET
Dow +7.32 at 45572.55, Nasdaq +123.57 at 21712.32, S&P +17.68 at 6499.08
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.27%) is in second place on Thursday afternoon, up about 18 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents ServiceNow (NOW 931.71, +43.73, +4.92%), Trade Desk (TTD 54.90, +2.25, +4.27%), and Agilent (A 123.08, +4.39, +3.70%) pepper the top of the standings. Agilent advances as investors welcomed its Q3 revenue beat, strong FY25 revenue guidance, and broad-based growth across all segments and regions, signaling sustained momentum and operational excellence.
Meanwhile, Brown-Forman (BF.B 28.93, -1.52, -4.99%) is one of today's worst performers as Q1 EPS missed last year's level and the company cut FY26 organic net sales guidance, citing macroeconomic uncertainty, potential tariffs, and weaker non-branded barrel sales despite a slight revenue beat.
Gold futures rally to $3,474 as Fed rate-cut bets surge, dollar weakens
28-Aug-25 14:00 ET
Dow +18.19 at 45583.42, Nasdaq +118.99 at 21707.74, S&P +16.76 at 6498.16
[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (+0.55%) is in first place on Thursday afternoon, up just shy of 120 points.
Gold futures settled $25.70 higher (+0.8%) at $3,474.30/oz, driven by growing market conviction that the Fed will initiate rate cuts as early as September. Investors are bracing for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key inflation indicator, that may further cement dovish expectations. With the probability of a 25-basis-point cut now above 85%-90%, and gold holding near the critical $3,400 threshold, sentiment remains firmly bullish. Additionally, residual safe-haven demand, stemming from recent policy uncertainties, continues to bolster gold's allure in our low-rate, risk-skittish environment.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.4% to $97.80.
Best Buy posts best comp growth in three years, yet cautious FY26 outlook weighs on stock (BBY)
Best Buy (BBY) delivered a solid performance in 2Q26, surpassing analyst expectations for EPS, revenue, and comparable sales in a macroeconomic environment that continues to pressure discretionary retailers with elevated interest rates, uneven consumer confidence, and tariff-induced cost volatility. CEO Corie Barry highlighted the +1.6% enterprise comparable sales growth as the strongest in three years, attributing it to strategic merchandising around innovation cycles and value-oriented promotions that resonated with budget-conscious shoppers.
Yet, despite this upside, the company opted to reaffirm rather than raise its FY26 guidance -- EPS of $6.15-$6.30, revenue of $41.1-$41.9 billion, and comparable sales of -1.0% to +1.0% -- a decision that disappointed investors anticipating a more optimistic revision and triggered a sharp selloff in the stock.
- The conservative FY26 outlook stems primarily from escalating tariff pressures, which are anticipated to weigh on both consumer spending power and BBY's cost structure, exacerbating the already cautious backdrop of subdued big-ticket purchases and delayed home-related expenditures.
- On the business side, tariffs could inflate COGS for imported electronics and appliances, with retaliatory measures from trading partners like China further complicating supply chains. That said, Barry noted the company is currently trending toward the higher end of its sales range, buoyed by early back-to-school momentum and Q2's outperformance, suggesting underlying demand resilience if macro conditions stabilize.
- BBY has proactively mitigated exposure by collaborating with vendors to diversify manufacturing away from China, reducing the share of product costs tied to Chinese imports from approximately 55% in March 2025 to 30-35% today; this shift incorporates more sourcing from tariff-exempt regions like the U.S. and Mexico and lower-duty alternatives such as Vietnam, India, South Korea, and Taiwan, alongside strategies like accelerated shipments, supplier cost absorption, and selective price adjustments implemented as a last resort by mid-May.
- Enterprise comparable sales marked a meaningful inflection point in Q2, flipping to positive territory with a 1.6% gain after Q1's -0.7% decline, signaling early signs of stabilization in the consumer electronics cycle as replacement demand for aging tech picks up amid innovation launches. This improvement was notably influenced by modest price increases across select categories to offset tariff-related costs, which helped bolster the topline without materially deterring volume in high-demand areas, though elasticity remains a monitored risk heading into holiday seasonality.
- Strength was evident in several key segments: gaming posted robust growth, fueled by the Nintendo (NTDOY) Switch 2 launch in early June, which drove preorders, midnight store openings, and ancillary sales in handheld devices and augmented reality glasses; computing achieved another quarter of expansion that spanned across broad price points and upgrade cycles; and mobile phones delivered comparable sales growth for the first time in three years. Conversely, softness persisted in appliances, where high interest rates continue to suppress home improvement spending, and home theater, impacted by lapping prior-year strength and tariff-driven pricing hesitancy.
BBY's Q2 performance stands out as a testament to operational resilience, with the strongest comparable sales growth in three years highlighting the company's ability to capitalize on innovation-driven demand in categories like gaming and computing amid a tough retail climate. However, the reaffirmation of cautious FY26 guidance -- despite positive trends -- effectively tempers enthusiasm, as tariff uncertainties and potential consumer pullback overshadow the quarter's achievements.
Burlington Stores beat-and-raise Q2 results fueled by 2.0 initiatives; a bit cautious on 2H26 (BURL)
Burlington Stores (BURL +7%) is trading sharply higher today after reporting its Q2 (Jul) results this morning, hitting a new 3-year high. This off-price retailer delivered its largest EPS beat in over 4 years, while Revenue increased 9.7% yr/yr to $2.7 bln, accelerating from 6% growth in Q1 (Apr) and topping expectations. Comp store sales jumped +5%, well above prior guidance of flat to +2%. Adding to the positive move, the company raised its guidance for EPS, revenue, and comps, underscoring how its strategic initiatives and value are resonating with consumers in the current macro environment.
- BURL attributed its strong Q2 results directly to its Burlington 2.0 initiatives. Merchandising 2.0 gave buyers the tools to pivot assortment and margins in response to tariff shocks, while Stores 2.0 upgrades delivered a noticeable sales lift. Additionally, recently opened stores, many of which are now entering the comp base, also contributed. Management emphasized these initiatives are still in the early stages and expected to drive further gains over time.
- BURL's comp of +5% was a bright spot, accelerating nicely from the flat comp in Q1 (Apr). Its comp was driven by higher transaction size, while traffic was "flattish." Management noted that the trend in Q2 started out slowly, mostly related to cooler weather in the Midwest and Northeast. Its trend picked up in June and July as weather normalized. BURL's strong heritage in outwear means that it is a bit more sensitive to seasonal weather variations than other retailers. Another impressive metric was its operating margin, which expanded 120 bps yr/yr, driven by stronger merchandising margins and expense efficiencies across P&L.
- What stands out about the nice comp lift is that management noted that its newer stores are ramping ahead of chain averages, which it expects to create a comp tailwind that should build over the next few years.
- The company is a bit cautious heading into the second half of the year. Management is holding comp guidance at +0-2% for Q3 and Q4, noting uncertainty, sensitivity to weather, and a tough +6% comp in Q4 (Jan) of last year. Additionally, BURL is not passing the full Q2 EPS beat into FY26 guidance due to incremental tariff pressure. Still, this reflects its standard playbook of planning conservatively and chasing sales when trends strengthen.
Overall, this was a great quarter for BURL, as comp sales accelerated nicely. Investors are not really responding to the cautious Q3 outlook, as the company is typically conservative and has delivered substantial EPS upside in recent quarters. On a final note, it was nice to see the stock push above the $300 level for the first time since 2021, with investors now looking ahead to continued comp tailwinds from younger stores and Burlington 2.0 initiatives.
NVIDIA Q2 Earnings: Data Center Miss Overshadowed Strong Underlying AI Growth (NVDA)
NVIDIA (NVDA -1.5%) posted mixed Q2 (Jul) results, with EPS and revenue topping estimates, though the upside was modest. Q3 guidance came in-line, a departure from its usual beat-and-raise pattern.
- Data Center revenue rose 56% yr/yr to $41.1 bln, but missed Street estimates due to a $4 bln sequential drop in H20 revenue tied to export restrictions. No H20 sales to China occurred in Q2, and none are assumed in Q3 guidance.
- The Blackwell platform grew 17% sequentially, with a smooth transition to GB300 among cloud providers. Production is expected to ramp further in Q3.
- NVIDIA expects broad availability of GB300 in H2, with its 10x token-per-watt efficiency positioning it as a key AI driver.
- The company reiterated bullish AI demand trends, estimating $3-4 trn in AI infrastructure spend by 2030.
- Gaming and AI PC revenue rose 49% yr/yr to a record $4.3 bln, fueled by Blackwell GeForce GPUs.
- Professional Visualization grew 32% to $601 mln; Automotive rose 69% to $586 mln.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
While the Data Center shortfall disappointed, it stemmed from geopolitical hurdles—not weak demand. Investors appear to be giving NVIDIA a pass, focusing instead on strong Blackwell adoption and robust long-term AI trends. Guidance was conservative, but the AI growth story remains intact. Given high expectations and valuation, near-term upside may be limited, but the long-term setup still looks favorable.
CrowdStrike beats Q2 expectations with record Net New ARR, but cautious Q3 outlook weighs (CRWD)
CrowdStrike (CRWD) delivered a solid performance in 2Q26, surpassing analyst expectations for both EPS and revenue while posting a record net new annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $221 mln -- a notable reacceleration that exceeded the company's own projections. This marked a rebound from the softer $194 mln in net new ARR reported in Q1, which had dipped from the $224 mln achieved in 4Q25 amid lingering effects from the prior year's Falcon sensor disruption.
Complementing these results, the company also unveiled a $290 mln acquisition of Onum Technology Inc., a Madrid-based innovator in real-time telemetry pipeline management, signaling strategic intent to bolster its data ingestion and analysis capabilities within the Falcon platform.
- The quarter's momentum, however, gave way to tempered optimism with mixed guidance for 3Q26, which triggered an initial sell-off in after-hours trading. While the EPS outlook of $0.93 to $0.95 beat consensus estimates, the revenue guidance of $1.208-$1.218 bln was just shy of expectations, underscoring a cautious stance on near-term top-line expansion. For FY26, CRWD reaffirmed in-line revenue expectations of $4.750-$4.806 bln, aligning with prior projections despite heightened scrutiny.
- This conservative tone is largely attributable to the persistent drag from Customer Commitment Packages (CCPs), introduced in the wake of the July 2024 Falcon sensor outage to retain clients through incentives like extended terms and credits; management had previously quantified a $10-$15 mln quarterly revenue headwind from these measures through the balance of FY26, with abatement anticipated in 1Q27 as the programs wind down and customer confidence stabilizes.
- A pivotal bright spot in the results remains net new ARR, the quintessential demand signal for SaaS-driven cybersecurity firms like CRWD, which surged 14% sequentially to $221 mln and propelled ending ARR to $4.66 bln, up 20% yr/yr. Management's forward-looking commentary is particularly encouraging, projecting approximately 40% yr/yr net new ARR growth in 2H26, which bodes well for sustained reacceleration as macro headwinds ease and enterprise spending rebounds.
- This trajectory is underpinned by several tailwinds: robust adoption of the Falcon Flex consumption-based licensing model, which has attracted over 1,000 customers and facilitated larger, multi-module deals; accelerating growth in high-margin segments like cloud security, next-gen identity protection, and next-gen SIEM; and the Falcon platform's AI-native enhancements, including Charlotte AI for threat triage and integrations with NVIDIA and OpenAI.
- Enterprises' ongoing consolidation of disparate IT security tools onto unified platforms continues to favor CRWD's Falcon ecosystem, as organizations seek to streamline operations, reduce complexity, and lower total cost of ownership. This trend is evidenced by deepening module adoption rates, with 48% of customers deploying six or more modules and 33% utilizing seven or more as of July 31, 2025 -- metrics that highlight the platform's stickiness and cross-sell efficacy.
- The $290 mln acquisition of Onum represents a shrewd bolt-on to CRWD's portfolio, targeting the critical need for efficient, real-time data pipeline management in an age where telemetry volume from endpoints, cloud environments, and IoT devices is exploding. Onum's proprietary stateless in-memory architecture excels at ingesting and processing third-party data at scale with minimal latency and cost, enabling in-pipeline threat detection that accelerates incident response without overwhelming storage demands -- a pain point for traditional SIEM systems burdened by data ingestion fees.
While CRWD's Q3 revenue guidance introduces a note of caution amid the CCP-related headwinds, the record net new ARR and anticipated 40% growth in the back half signal resilient underlying demand and a return to pre-outage momentum. The impending fade of these impacts in 1Q27, coupled with strategic moves like the Onum acquisition, should catalyze a more robust revenue trajectory.
J.M. Smucker's Q1 results and outlook pressured by rising coffee prices, weak snack category (SJM)
J.M. Smucker's (SJM) 1Q26 earnings report revealed a modest EPS miss amid a challenging consumer environment marked by persistent inflation and selective consumer spending. While the company reaffirmed its FY26 adjusted EPS guidance at $8.50-$9.50, the midpoint of $9.00 still falls below the Street's expectations, signaling potential margin compression from elevated input costs and tariff-related headwinds. This conservative outlook, coupled with a 1% decline in net sales to $2.11 bln, has sparked investor disappointment, triggering a sharp selloff in the stock.
- A pressing concern weighing on profitability is the escalation in coffee prices, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs on imports from key suppliers like Brazil and Vietnam, which represent the bulk of Smucker's green coffee sourcing. The U.S. Retail Coffee segment, encompassing Folgers and Dunkin' brands, posted 15% net sales growth to $717.2 mln, propelled by an 18-percentage-point uplift from net price realization as the company implemented multiple hikes to offset record-high commodity costs. However, segment profit plummeted by $38.4 mln to $134.2 mln, reflecting the pass-through nature of coffee pricing and unfavorable volume/mix dynamics, where consumers are trading down amid broader inflationary strains.
- Management had previously noted that tariffs alone are embedding a $0.25 per share drag on FY26 EPS, prompting further pricing actions in May and August, though elasticity has been more favorable than historical norms. This dynamic highlights the vulnerability of SJM's largest segment -- accounting for about 34% of total revenue -- to external shocks, yet also its pricing power in a resilient at-home coffee category.
- Compounding these pressures, a broader pullback in discretionary spending has prompted consumers to favor value-oriented private-label alternatives, hammering the snack category and mirroring challenges faced by peers like PepsiCo (PEP). This headwind persisted into Q1, with the Sweet Baked Snacks segment -- while bolstered by the Hostess acquisition -- still experiencing a 10% decline in net sales to approximately $251 mln, even excluding the impact of the Voortman divestiture in December 2024.
- Volume/mix eroded net sales by 8 percentage points, largely attributable to weakness in snack cakes as households prioritize essentials over indulgent treats. SJM's SKU rationalization efforts, targeting underperforming long-tail items, are expected to yield $30 mln in savings starting in 4Q26, but near-term stabilization remains elusive amid elevated marketing investments to rebuild share.
- Amid these headwinds, momentum in the Uncrustables frozen sandwich brand provided a notable bright spot, though it failed to fully counteract softness elsewhere in the U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads segment, where net sales dipped 2% to $449.8 mln. Uncrustables delivered double-digit growth, fueled by national advertising, distribution expansions into over 30,000 convenience stores, and innovations like the peanut butter and raspberry variety. Management also reaffirmed its trajectory toward $1 bln in annual net sales by FY26 end.
- However, weakness in fruit spreads and Jif peanut butter -- hit by pricing pressures and a shift in promotional timing -- exacerbated the segment's challenges, with volume/mix declines and lapping prior-year innovations contributing to the downturn. Segment operating income fell by $4.7 mln, reflecting higher costs and pre-production expenses from capacity expansions, including the new Alabama facility.
SJM's Q1 results and FY26 guidance underscore the dual pressures of surging coffee and peanut butter prices -- amplified by tariffs and commodity inflation -- as well as sluggish demand in the snack category, which collectively drove the EPS miss and a midpoint below consensus. While strategic pricing and Uncrustables' robust trajectory offer defensive qualities, stronger results may not materialize until tariff resolutions unfold and as consumer spending recovers.
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