To: Thomas M. who wrote (348406 ) 9/15/2025 1:55:26 PM From: Thomas M. 1 RecommendationRecommended By longz
Respond to of 359689 How to prevent the Big War? Mobilization is war, as Soviet and German theorists discovered in the 1920s. The rolling back of mobilization amounts to capitulation, and nobody at the table plans to be the one who folds. A Russian victory so crushing that it demoralizes the entire hostile part of the European continent could probably stave off things, perhaps for a generation even, but not forever. The taboo against industrial mass warfare is gone and reintroducing it would be extremely costly. Russia's main strategic dilemma until 2030 is how to stop the adversary from stockpiling weapons for several years, impoverishing their populations to retool their economies to produce little but armaments, conscripting the entire male population of Moldova and the Baltic states, and bolstering them with regular Romanian and Polish army units and eventually assembling a military force that could credibly attack Russia in 3–5 years. (but not officially, of course - that entire force would operate without overt NATO air power as "Ukrainian Liberation Army" or whatever, they are retarded and suicidal but not THAT retarded and suicidal. For now) That is clearly the plan of at least a very strong faction of the adversary's ruling classes. Russia is not blind: the Special Military Operation was in part a response to ideological and economic mobilization precursors in the West, and Russia has its own large-scale strategic rearmament program that is independent of the SMO. The main factors necessary to avoid a huge, bloody, and destructive war against the EU are: 1) making an example out of their troops whenever they show up in Ukraine; 2) cutting off Ukraine from the Black Sea, complicating their logistics and manpower pool in case of invasion; 3) destroying as much of the AFU as possible before the negotiated end to the conflict, 4) engaging in diplomacy with the US. Interestingly, the Poles seem vaguely aware of the fate their masters have planned for them and are not nearly as eager for it, unlike the Baltics. Exploiting internal contradictions would be useful, too, but I'm afraid they're all too far gone for that, and it would only kick their repression machine into overdrive and accelerate the timeline. Every other strategic interest takes a step back in view of this existential threat: the Middle East, Africa, the Caucasus, Central Asia. Unless certain goals are achieved and certain things prevented from happening, there's going to be a war soon-ish that'll make the SMO look like foreplay.x.com Tom