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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ajtj99 who wrote (95037)9/16/2025 1:37:13 PM
From: Sun Tzu2 Recommendations

Recommended By
ajtj99
JSD

  Respond to of 97535
 
I don't get many false signals. This system is the best that I know of, but I am biased since I created it.

The key is cross validation of the signals.

First of all, trend is the king. This means respect the black trend line and the supertrend indicator within the main chart.

Second is the color guards. They act as support/resistance levels with some fuzziness around them. If have simplified it as saying buy on strength near the green guardrail and sell on weakness near the red one. But in actuality, both red and green are support/resistance levels. It's just that you are more likely to bounce off of a green (ie. it becomes a support) than the red (which is typically a resistance).

Finally it is the lower indicators that momentum indicators analogous to stochastic, RSI, TSI, etc with a bit of ADX thinking thrown in.

With the lower indicators, it is important to respect the levels. A good simplification is to treat them as above midline is a buy and below midline is a sell. But of course the crossovers and how oversold/overbought the signal is matter.

A more intelligent assessment of the lower signals is that above midline is buy and below it is a sell, BUT, if they become oversold/overbought and you see divergence, then act on the divergence, especially if the main chart guardrails and trend confirm your reading.

If a person or algo is able to keep all this in mind and cross validate with the above weighing, then false signals become very rare. They still happen, but a lot less often than you'd expect.

There are fair analogues between this system and the harmonic trading system from Scott.



To: ajtj99 who wrote (95037)9/16/2025 1:43:37 PM
From: Sun Tzu1 Recommendation

Recommended By
ajtj99

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97535
 
If you give me a non-commodity chart of something you'd like to read, I will run it through the system.



To: ajtj99 who wrote (95037)9/16/2025 1:49:27 PM
From: Sun Tzu  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97535
 
BTW, I flipflopped on my BTC position.
I bought it, then sold it with a 0.5% loss, then bought it again.
Overall I lost 1.x% if I had kept my original position (including the lost profits).

BTC is still a buy (hence no red or even grey markers after the last green one) and I expect it to go to 120ish. How it acts around 119 - 123 should tell me more.