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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Madharry who wrote (78121)9/17/2025 11:30:38 AM
From: E_K_S  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78471
 
The DCF $/share from Gemini is $231.25/share; From the link I provided $204.26

($27.08/share is from the cash on hand) -

Alibaba Group Holding ADR (BABA) 165.94 +3.73 (+2.30%)

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Only excess cash—the cash on the balance sheet that is not required for day-to-day operations—is typically added back in the final step of the DCF to determine Equity Value.


Metric/DetailDescription
Required Operating CashThis is the minimum cash balance a company needs to run its normal operations (e.g., to cover near-term expenses). This portion of cash is generally embedded in Net Working Capital and is therefore implicitly included in the FCFF projections.
Excess CashThis is any cash balance above and beyond the required operating cash. It is considered a non-operating asset because it's available for non-operational uses (like dividends, share buybacks, or acquisitions) without impacting the projected operational cash flows.
DCF TreatmentThe entire balance of Excess Cash is added directly to the Enterprise Value to arrive at the Equity Value. This is because it belongs to the shareholders but wasn't included in the core cash flow projections.
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The Cash on the Balance Sheet Detail:

The full cash and marketable securities balance might be, for example, $70 Billion.
  • Required Operating Cash ($5 Billion): This is considered part of Net Working Capital (a key input in FCFF) and is therefore already valued in the Enterprise Value of $500 Billion.

  • Excess Cash ($65 Billion): This is the non-operating portion and is explicitly added back in Step 2, directly increasing the value available to shareholders.

Step 3: Calculate Value Per Share

The final step is to divide the total Equity Value by the number of outstanding shares to arrive at the intrinsic value per share.

ComponentMetric/DetailValue (Illustrative)
Total Equity ValueFrom Step 2.$555 Billion
Shares OutstandingCurrent number of shares (based on recent filings/estimates).2.4 Billion
Intrinsic Price Per ShareEquity Value/Shares Outstanding.$231.25

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Summary of Results and Interpretation

The result of this illustrative DCF analysis is that Alibaba's intrinsic value is approximately $231.25 per share.

  • If the market price of BABA stock were, for instance, $90.00, the DCF would suggest the stock is significantly Undervalued.

  • Crucially, $65 Billion of the Equity Value is directly attributable to the cash the company holds in excess of its operating needs. This non-operating cash is highly certain and directly increases the shareholders' total value.

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Based on the illustrative DCF analysis for Alibaba (BABA) where the excess cash was estimated at $65 Billion and the total Shares Outstanding were 2.4 Billion, the value per share directly attributable to that excess cash is:

Cash per Share=2.4 Billion Shares$65 Billion?˜$27.08 per share

This $27.08 per share represents the portion of the company's total intrinsic value that is backed by the highly liquid, non-operating cash balance