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Strategies & Market Trends : World Outlook -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (47904)	9/23/2025 7:45:37 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 48940

War Signals, Quiet Channels, and Venezuela’s Discounted BarrelsBy Elias Ferrer - Sep 22, 2025, 11:00 AM CDT Trump threatened Venezuela and sent Navy, Air Force, and special forces to the Caribbean. Despite the hard line, both sides appear open to talks. Chevron’s waiver keeps some U.S. barrels flowing, but sanctions push ~85% of Venezuela’s oil to China at a discount. In a recent post on Truth Social, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened Venezuela to take back ‘prisoners and people from mental institutions,’ or else ‘the price you will pay will be incalculable.’ This was announced right when the U.S. military was deploying an array of Navy and Air Force units in the Eastern Caribbean, and even elite Special Operations forces, making the threat real. The deployment is accompanied by a key narrative element. Since late July, administration officials have been promoting the idea that Venezuela is ruled by a ‘criminal organisation’ known as the ‘Cartel de los Soles’, with Nicolás Maduro at its head. Many analysts are thus seeing through the ‘counter-narcotics’ rhetoric, concluding that this is a campaign to drive Maduro out of power. The U.S. military has since bombed and destroyed three boats, alleged to be carrying drugs from Venezuela—although the statement on the third strike shied away from mentioning the country, given rising questions over the legality of such actions. In any case, while the Navy surrounds Venezuela’s coasts, destroying speedboats could be equivalent to shooting in the air during a heist. At Guacamaya we recently published articles finding that the ‘Cartel de los Soles’ story is no more than a political narrative, ignoring the realities of drug trafficking, and that it is being promoted by certain political and economic interests to push for regime change in Venezuela. Others have also analysed how the use of the terms ‘Tren de Aragua’ and ‘Cartel de los Soles’ has risen and fallen based on their political convenience. President Trump’s messaging has consistently focused on fentanyl—which causes 70% of overdose deaths in the United States—instead of Colombian cocaine. And in any case, just 5% of the latter transits through Venezuela, according to none other than the DEA. What Venezuela does indeed have is 300 billion barrels of oil, 220 trillion cubic feet of gas, and significant deposits of gold, iron, tin, bauxite, coltan, and rare minerals. Meanwhile, Caracas has been a close ally of Havana, meaning it is in the sights of South Florida’s Cuban-American political community, with Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio at its head. Are we then to expect a further escalation of conflict between the United States and Venezuela? How likely is it that there will be an all-out war? Or are the two sides ready to negotiate? Then, what would either of these options mean for energy markets? Actually, there are some signals that both the White House and the Palace of Miraflores are open to talk. The Truth Social post creates a doubt. One can understand that it refers to President Trump’s claim that Maduro purposefully sent thousands of criminals into the United States. But if Venezuela accepts all deportees, would regime change plans be shelved? Soon after the publication, on the very same day, Reuters said that it had seen a letter in which Maduro offered Trump to engage in direct talks via Presidential Envoy for Special Missions Richard Grenell. The letter’s date was September 6, probably reflecting that some officials tried to hide it. more... oilprice.com