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Strategies & Market Trends : World Outlook -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (47946)	9/23/2025 7:54:44 PM
From: Qone0	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 48877

This is source co-pilot is using. msn.com

To: Les H who wrote (47946)	9/24/2025 7:10:58 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 48877

‘Red Queen Syndrome’ Hits Global Oil Production By Andrew Topf - Sep 17, 2025, 3:00 PM CDT Shale wells decline fast, forcing constant drilling—the “Red Queen” effect—with many losing 70–90% of output in three years. The IEA says global fields are depleting faster than thought, so most spending now just fights decline. The US oil-directed rig count has declined by approximately 60 rigs this year, including 59 rigs in the second quarter alone. Shale oil wells are gushers in their first year, then deplete rapidly. Shale companies therefore, have to keep ploughing more money into production just to keep output flat, a phenomenon known as the “Red Queen Syndrome,” named after Lewis Carroll’s ‘Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland’. Shale wells typically bleed off 70 to 90% in their first three years and drop by 20 to 40% a year without new drilling. A recent IEA Report confirms this, stating that the world’s oil and gas fields are declining at a faster rate than previously thought, leaving the energy sector facing a costly battle to maintain output. In fact, since 2019 oil and gas groups have spent $500,000 on oil and gas production, nearly 90 percent of annual investment, simply to arrest the decline in existing fields. “The situation means that the industry has to run much faster just to stand still,” IEA boss Faith Birol was quoted saying. It’s a 180-degree turn by the agency, which previously warned of a “staggering glut” of crude. The IEA analyzed data from 15,000 oil and gas fields and concluded that production is growing more precarious because of an increasing reliance on shale oil and gas, where fields need continuous new drilling to maintain their output. In its Tuesday report, the IEA also suggested that if oil companies stop spending altogether, global oil production will contract by 5.5 million barrels a day, around the combined output of Brazil and Norway. The decline for natural gas has risen to 270 billion cubic meters per year from 180 bcm/yr. US shale oil and gas would collapse by 35 per cent in the first year after drilling stopped, the FT said. Reuters reported that after reaching peak production, the average annual decline in output was 5.6% for conventional oil fields, and 6.8% for conventional gas fields. Declining output from oil and gas fields means that oil production will gradually become concentrated in the Middle East and Russia, where large fields decline more slowly. more... oilprice.com