Market Snapshot
| Dow | 46247.08 | +299.97 | (0.65%) | | Nasdaq | 22484.07 | +99.37 | (0.44%) | | SP 500 | 6643.69 | +38.98 | (0.59%) | | 10-yr Note | -2/32 | 4.187 |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1830 | Dec 840 | Vol 1.10 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 2870 | Dec 1690 | Vol 8.54 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Financials, Industrials, Energy, Utilities, Health Care, Materials, Real Estate |
| | Weak: Consumer Staples, Technology, Communication Services |
Moving the Market
-- New tariffs scheduled for October 1: 100% tariff for imported branded and generic pharmaceuticals if no plant being built in U.S; a 25% tariff for heavy trucks; a 50% tariff for kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and associated products; and a 30% tariff for upholstered furniture
-- August Personal income growth beats expectations
-- Weakness in mega cap names
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Market overcomes mega cap weakness
26-Sep-25 16:20 ET
Dow +299.97 at 46247.08, Nasdaq +99.37 at 22484.07, S&P +38.98 at 6643.69
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended the week on an upbeat note, as the major averages snapped their three-day skid, helping the Dow (+0.7%) return to little changed for the week (-0.2%). The S&P 500 (+0.6%) and Nasdaq (+0.4%) lost a respective 0.3% and 0.7% for the week.
The higher finish did not come without a fight as continuation of recent weakness in mega cap names provided some early pressure that countered general strength in the broader market. That strength persisted into the afternoon while many of the early laggards like NVIDIA (NVDA 178.19, +0.50, +0.28%) and Microsoft (MSFT 511.46, +4.43, +0.87%) overcame their initial weakness.
Investors received a solid Personal Income/Spending report for August this morning, but expectations for two more rate cuts by the end of the year inched higher, nonetheless.
Ten sectors finished the day in positive territory with seven rising more than 0.8%. The heavily-weighted consumer discretionary sector (+1.5%) ended up among the leaders with help from a daylong rally in the shares of Tesla (TSLA 440.41, +17.02, +4.02%).
Utilities (+1.6%), materials (+1.1%), and real estate (+1.0%) also finished among the leaders while energy (+1.0%) met some late profit taking after this week's show of strength. Still, the sector gained 4.7% alongside a $3.28, or 5.3%, rise in the price of WTI crude.
The communication services sector (+0.1%) finished among the laggards, almost entirely due to weakness in its top component—Meta Platforms (META 743.75, -5.16, -0.69%). The stock fell to a three-week low, masking gains in nearly all other members of the sector. Video game publishers Electronic Arts (EA 193.35, +25.03, +14.87%) and Take-Two (TTWO 256.12, +11.01, +4.49%) both soared to fresh records in late trade after The Wall Street Journal reported that Electronic Arts is nearing a $50 billion deal to be taken private.
Top-weighted technology (+0.2%) also lagged throughout the day due to relative weakness in its largest components. Still, more than half of the sector's components finished in the green with Intel (INTC 35.50, +1.51, +4.44%) extending its recent run to a level not seen since mid-July 2024.
The consumer staples sector (-0.1%) was the lone decliner, and it too was dragged down by the weight of one of its top components. Costco (COST 915.95, -27.36, -2.90%) fell to its lowest level since early April despite a Q4 EPS beat while only seven other sector members finished in the red.
Longer-dated Treasuries recorded slim losses (10-yr yield +2 bps to 4.19%) while the short end edged higher (2-yr yield -1 bp to 3.65%), showing little concern over next week's likely government shutdown or newly announced tariffs that will be coming into effect on October 1. Imported branded and generic pharmaceuticals will be hit with a 100% tariff if the producer is not building a domestic presence, heavy truck imports will face a 25% tariff while kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and associated products will be hit with a 50% tariff. Upholstered furniture will come with a 30% tariff.
Reviewing today's data:
- Personal income increased 0.4% month-over-month in August (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) following a 0.4% increase in July. Personal spending jumped 0.6% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) following a 0.5% increase in July. The PCE Price Index was up 0.3% month-over-month, as expected, and the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2%, also as expected. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price Index was up 2.7%, versus 2.6% in July, and the core PCE Price Index was up 2.9%, unchanged from July.
- The key takeaway from the report is the lack of headline surprise for the inflation prints. That helped calm some of the market's angst about tariff pass-through being more demonstrable; therefore, it was better than feared, which qualifies in a relative sense as being good. The solid income and spending results were a bonus, befitting an economy that is still on a growth trajectory.
- The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for September checked in at 55.1 (Briefing.com consensus: 55.4) versus the preliminary reading of 55.4. The final reading for August was 58.2. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 70.1.
- The key takeaway from the report is that expectations for the macroeconomy, including the labor market and business conditions, and personal finances receded. Monday's data slate will be limited to the 10:00 ET release of August Pending Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior -0.4%).
- Nasdaq Composite +16.4 YTD
- S&P 500 +13.0% YTD
- Russell 2000 +9.2% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +8.7% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400 +4.7% YTD
Busy data week ahead
26-Sep-25 15:30 ET
Dow +328.01 at 46275.12, Nasdaq +95.88 at 22480.58, S&P +37.95 at 6642.66
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages trade near their best levels of the day going into the final 30 minutes of action. The S&P 500 (+0.6%) has narrowed this week's loss to 0.3% while the Dow (+0.7%) is almost back to unchanged for the week.
Today's release of the Personal Income/Outlays report for August has not done anything to upset the market's expectations for two more rate cuts this year, but next week's data slate could result in some changes on that front. September Consumer Confidence (Briefing.com consensus 96.0; prior 97.4) will be released on Tuesday, followed by the September ISM Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 49.2%; prior 48.7%) on Wednesday, but the report that will have the most influence over rate expectations--the Employment Situation report for September (Briefing.com consensus 39,000; prior 22,000)--will not be released until Friday morning.
Treasuries finished the day with modest losses in longer tenors, sending the 10-yr yield higher by two basis points to 4.19%.
Video game names receive late boost
26-Sep-25 14:55 ET
Dow +360.58 at 46307.69, Nasdaq +83.45 at 22468.15, S&P +37.50 at 6642.21
[BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the S&P 500 (+ 0.6%) return to its opening high while the Nasdaq (+0.4%) set a fresh session high just above its morning peak.
The communication services sector (+0.2%) has been among today's laggards since the start due to weakness in Meta Platforms (META 742.66, -6.24, -0.83%), but video game names saw a recent wave of buying after The Wall Street Journal reported that Electronic Arts (EA 194.16, +25.84, +15.35%) is nearing a $50 bln deal to be taken private.
Shares of Electronic Arts have reached a fresh record in reaction to the report while Take-Two (TTWO 256.32, +11.21, +4.57%) has rallied to a new record high of its own.
S&P 500 gains momentum, fueled by Caesars, CDW, and Domino's; eBay slumps
26-Sep-25 14:30 ET
Dow +353.29 at 46300.40, Nasdaq +84.97 at 22469.67, S&P +37.03 at 6641.74
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.56%) is in second place on Friday afternoon, up about 37 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Caesars Entertainment (CZR 27.22, +1.31, +5.06%), CDW (CDW 164.23, +7.26, +4.63%), and Domino's Pizza (DPZ 440.51, +17.76, +4.20%) pepper the top of the standings. CZR rises after this morning's Nevada gaming numbers came in better than expected.
Meanwhile, eBay (EBAY 90.25, -2.86, -3.07%) is the worst-performing constituent on Friday as the stock failed to hold the 50-day MA.
Gold climbs 1% to $3,809 as safe-haven demand rises, dollar slips
26-Sep-25 14:00 ET
Dow +328.83 at 46275.94, Nasdaq +50.29 at 22434.99, S&P +31.31 at 6636.02
[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (+0.22%) is in last place on Friday afternoon, up about 50 points with two hours to go.
Gold futures settled $37.90 higher (+1.0%) at $3,809/oz, extending weekly gains to about +2.8%, as investors sought safe havens amid tariff-driven inflation concerns and geopolitical unease. The move was also supported by shifting Fed rate expectations, with markets weighing stronger U.S. data against the potential inflationary impact of new trade measures.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.3% to $98.18.
Meta denies reliance on Google AI for ad targeting, characterizing work as "benchmarking" (META)
Meta Platforms (META) is reportedly in discussions with Google (GOOG) about potentially using its Gemini AI models to enhance ad targeting, according to The Information. Some META employees have even considered tweaking Gemini and Gemma models with META’s own ad data, which, if true, suggests internal concern that META may be lagging GOOG in the broader AI race.
- A META spokesperson quickly downplayed the report in a Threads post, saying, “No, what’s happening here is part of the work we regularly do to evaluate third-party tools for the purpose of benchmarking.”
- This response comes against the backdrop of META’s strong in-house AI momentum. In Q2, advertising revenue grew 22% yr/yr, driven by a 9% increase in average ad prices and an 11% gain in impressions across its Family of Apps.
- META’s proprietary AI innovations -- including Advantage+, Andromeda, and GEM (Global Engagement Model) -- have delivered meaningful improvements in ad targeting precision and return on ad spend, helping sustain advertiser demand.
- The company continues to double down on its own AI roadmap, with FY25 capital expenditures projected at $66–$72 bln, much of it earmarked for Meta Superintelligence Labs. The initiative, co-led by Scale AI’s Alexandr Wang, is focused on advancing personal superintelligence technologies.
- If META were truly leaning on GOOG for core ad-targeting AI, it would mark a sharp reversal from this aggressive internal investment trajectory and raise questions about confidence in its proprietary stack.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
While the headline of META testing Gemini models fuels speculation about competitive gaps, the company’s clarification makes sense: benchmarking rivals’ tools is standard practice. With ad growth accelerating and proprietary AI engines like Advantage+ and GEM powering returns, META has little incentive to cede ground to GOOG in its core business. Instead, the story underscores heightened scrutiny of META’s AI efforts as competition intensifies. Investors should view this episode less as evidence of dependency on GOOG and more as a reminder that the AI arms race is forcing even leaders like META to constantly stress-test their platforms.
Home furnishing retailers digest fresh tariff shocks, with impacts diverging across the sector (RH)
Home furnishing retailers are digesting a fresh round of tariff announcements from President Trump today. The measures include a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and related products, along with a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture. These come on top of existing tariffs on China, Vietnam, India, and other countries. While shares of domestic manufacturers are seeing a lift on the headlines, the sector overall faces renewed uncertainty given its heavy reliance on global supply chains.
- RH (RH -4.2%) had announced a growing impact of tariffs in its Q2 (Jul) report, including a $30 mln incremental tariff cost, leading to a reduction in its revenue guidance and operating margin. While the company is working on shifting upholstered production to NC, Italy, and Mexico, it had warned on its call that incremental tariffs would be an additional challenge.
- William Sanoma (WSM -1.3%) noted that topline growth would be offset by margin pressure from incremental tariff costs, as it reported on its Q2 (Jul) call that tariff rates had doubled from Q1. Some offstting measures include vendor concessions, resourcing initiatives, and selective pricing.
- Wayfair (W +0.9%) is up modestly on the headlines. The company has emphasized that its inventory-light model and broad supplier base provide flexibility, helping keep pricing relatively stable.
- Ethan Allen (ETD +1.7%) and La-Z-Boy (LZB +1.8%) are among the biggest winners today given their U.S.-centric manufacturing. ETD produces about 70% of its products in North America, while LZB makes roughly 90% of its upholstered units domestically.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
Tariffs remain a highly disruptive force for the home furnishing space. Retailers with globalized sourcing strategies are confronting higher costs, margin compression, and complex shifts in supply chain planning. While some are actively resourcing production to the U.S. or North America, the process is lengthy and expensive, and not all product categories can be easily transitioned. Combined with a still-sluggish housing market, the tariff landscape adds another layer of risk to near-term demand and profitability.
Concentrix Stock Drops After Q3 Miss; Margin Pressures Offset Strong AI-Driven Wins (CNXC)
Concentrix is trading sharply lower after a disappointing Q3 (Aug) earnings report, marking its second consecutive EPS miss — and this one was worse than Q2. Revenue rose 4.0% yr/yr to $2.48 bln, which was in line, but downside Q4 EPS guidance rattled investors.
- EPS fell short again, raising concerns after a second straight miss and weaker Q4 EPS outlook.
- Revenue growth was led by banking, financial services, and insurance, with continued traction in integrated, higher-complexity offerings.
- CNXC is actively reducing exposure to low-complexity transactions while expanding its tech-enabled, AI-driven services.
- Management says AI is proving to be a tailwind, not a threat, helping win major accounts and secure new business.
What went wrong?
Margins were the main issue. Non-GAAP operating income came in at $305 mln, below guidance, mainly due to excess capacity. CNXC overestimated volume recovery from clients affected by tariffs in Q2 and expected faster volume consolidation — which didn't materialize. A smaller margin hit came from accelerating tech transformation initiatives for clients. CNXC expects modest sequential margin improvement over the next few quarters as volume ramps or capacity is reduced.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
While Concentrix continues to position itself as a differentiated AI-powered CX provider, the back-to-back EPS misses and weak Q4 EPS outlook raise questions about operational execution. Margin headwinds — particularly excess capacity — suggest the business may take a few quarters to stabilize. With the stock already punished and AI traction promising long-term, patient investors might be intrigued, but near-term caution is warranted.
Costco delivers another EPS beat, but rising competition from Amazon creating some angst (COST)
Costco (COST) delivered another strong quarter in 4Q25, extending its streak of earnings beats (11 of the past 12 quarters) as its efficient model continues to shine in a difficult retail landscape. However, comp sales of +5.7% fell just shy of expectations, though on an adjusted basis (ex-gasoline and FX) comps were strong at +6.4%.
- EPS of $5.87 (+14% yr/yr) topped consensus, reflecting disciplined cost control and operating leverage.
- Total revenue grew 8% yr/yr to $84.4 bln, supported by 13.6% e-commerce growth.
- Headline comparable sales rose +5.7% but were +6.4% when excluding gas and FX headwinds. U.S. traffic was +3.7%, with ticket up 1.9%.
- Membership fee income jumped 14% to $1.72 bln, aided by last year’s fee increase and strong upgrades to Executive membership.
- Newly introduced Executive-only shopping hours added roughly 1% to weekly U.S. sales.
- Category performance was broad-based: fresh foods posted high-single-digit growth (meat leading with double-digit increases), non-food categories saw high-single-digit comps with standout strength in gold & jewelry, consumer electronics, toys, gift cards, and men’s apparel. Food and sundries delivered mid- to high-single-digit gains, led by cola and candy.
- COST continued to mitigate tariff pressures through flexible sourcing and shifting its assortment. The company leaned more heavily on categories like health & beauty, tires, and mattresses, while its Kirkland Signature brand further strengthened penetration and margins.
- Management acknowledged growing competitive pressure, particularly from Amazon’s (AMZN) launch of a same-day grocery delivery service during the quarter. Still, Instacart (CART) and Uber Eats (UBER) partnerships remain accretive, with digital traffic up 27% and big-ticket logistics deliveries up 13%.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
COST’s Q4 results underscore the company’s unique ability to blend value, traffic-driving categories, and membership economics into consistent earnings beats. The slight miss on headline comps is largely a function of gas price deflation and FX noise, not an underlying demand issue. More concerning is the competitive encroachment from AMZN’s new same-day service, which could pressure COST’s digital grocery share over time. However, COST’s tariff agility, category depth, and membership fee momentum create significant cushion. With 38.7 mln Executive members now representing nearly three-quarters of sales, COST’s model remains as resilient as ever.
Birkenstock's upgraded outlook reflects resilient demand, strong pricing power amid headwinds (BIRK)
Birkenstock (BIRK) provided upside guidance for Q4, forecasting revenue to at least €520 mln, implying growth of at least 14% (18% constant currency) despite ongoing FX headwinds. The German sandal and clog maker also reaffirmed its FY25 adjusted EBITDA margin range of 31.3–31.8%.
- Q4 revenue guide of €520 mln+ reflects resilient demand and full-price selling strategy, even amid a tough macro retail environment.
- FX headwinds remain a challenge, but constant currency growth of 18% highlights strong underlying demand trends.
- B2B sales rose 15% yr/yr in Q3, and management expects B2B to outpace DTC in Q4, aided by a consumer shift back toward in-store shopping.
- Higher-income customers continue gravitating toward the brand, supporting robust margins and EPS growth despite broader retail weakness.
- BIRK acquired a production facility near Dresden for €18 mln (€240/sqm due to seller bankruptcy), expected to be operational by end of FY27 -- securing future capacity to meet growing demand.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
BIRK’s update underscores its positioning as a premium lifestyle brand relatively insulated from consumer spending volatility. The reaffirmed margin outlook, coupled with upside revenue guidance, highlights pricing power and disciplined cost management. The strong B2B momentum -- set to outpace DTC in Q4 -- also speaks to the strategic benefit of shifting channel dynamics. The Dresden factory acquisition at distressed pricing is another example of opportunistic capital allocation that should expand capacity over time. That said, FX remains a headwind and broader retail sentiment fragile, meaning BRIK’s premium valuation demands continued flawless execution. For now, the brand’s resilience and ability to drive double-digit constant-currency growth make it one of the stronger operators in global footwear retail.
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