Paul and all, Processor analyst sees an end to Pentium MMX .
TSMC has just received a large order form NSM to manufacture next generation Cyrix CPU ( a Pentium class CPU, but baseon on sock 7)
Is there life for socket 7 after 1998 ?
Here is an interesting article from analyst.
infoworld.com
Processor analyst sees an end to Pentium MMX
By Nancy Weil
InfoWorld Electric
Posted at 6:38 PM PT, Feb 24, 1998
BURLINGTON, Mass. -- Intel's Pentium MMX chip line has nearly run its course and will be supplanted by new microprocessors starting in the second quarter of this year, an analyst said here Monday during a Microprocessor Report seminar.
"We expect by the end of the year, Intel isn't going to be shipping many Pentium MMX chips -- maybe in a couple of notebooks," said Linley Gwennap, editor in chief of Microprocessor Report, an industry trade publication.
Gwennap's presentation, called "The Complete Intel: From x86 to IA-64," outlined what he and others at his publication believe will be the news from Intel in coming months, including extensions to the P6 chip family, which began with the Pentium Pro and also includes the Pentium II.
The MMX series was designed to boost performance for multimedia software applications, including those that use sound and graphics. Although the series has been popular, Gwennap said that Intel typically moves into its next generation of chips every couple of years, heavily marketing its latest line so that consumers and vendors demand the newest offering.
Gwennap's talk looked at how Intel, which dominates the microprocessor market, will make the transition from current x86 technology to IA-64, code-named Merced and expected out in the first quarter of 1999.
The highly publicized 64-bit Merced initially will target high-end workstations and servers, but, if Intel so desires, the chip line could make its way into desktop PCs. Key to that desire will be support from software makers, and Gwennap said that Microsoft already has pledged that it will offer products for machines running on Merced.
Hewlett-Packard is working with Intel on Merced. Gwennap said that unlike previous processor partnerships, the relationship is healthy. Intel retains chip design and licensing rights under the deal, and HP will roll out servers and workstations running on Merced.
"I think the Intel-HP [partnership] structure will work much more efficiently in getting product out the door" than do relationships that operate on a 50-50 basis and share design and licensing, Gwennap said.
Various major PC vendors also have committed to using the IA-64 architecture and will roll out hardware equipped with the new chip soon after its official release, Gwennap predicted. Right now, the only feasible competition for Merced is Digital's 64-bit Alpha chip, he said, and that is unlikely to change anytime soon.
Gwennap's forecast for likely future products was not based on confidential information from Intel but on details gathered from various other sources, he said as he outlined the following processors and product lines he expects from the company:
The Deschutes line will be extended and will include the first processor in the sixth generation of Pentiums (P6) for notebooks, although clock speeds are likely to lag behind desktops by one or two speed grades. As Deschutes volumes rise, Pentium II prices will drop quickly through the rest of this year.
Appeasing demands for Intel processors in the market for computing devices priced at less than $1,000, the company will release a chip with the same CPU as Deschutes, but lacking a Level 2 (L2) cache. Gwennap said that Intel is not likely to invest heavily in low-cost processors because the company derives only 10 percent of its revenue from those. Intel's main marketing strategy is to push products listed at more than $400, and that is likely to continue, he said.
The low-end chip Gwennap calls Covington -- a name he says Intel has not yet "owned up to" publicly -- will appeal to those who want an Intel processor for inexpensive desktops, but "from a performance standpoint, it's not going to be a very impressive product," he said.
Covington will drop to $100 by the third quarter of this year and squeeze the Pentium MMX out of the desktop market during the second half of the year.
Using a Deschutes CPU core with an on-chip L2 cache, a chip code-named Mendocino will offer performance similar to that of Deschutes, with its 512KB cache, but at a lower cost. The first of the Mendocino line could be out by the end of the year.
Katmai system shipments will take off in the first half of next year, and the chip will shrink to the 0.18-micron CMOS format in the second half, with an integrated L2 cache version possibly showing up for low-end desktops and mobile computers in the first quarter of 2000.
A chip code-named Willamette will be the conceptual Pentium III, but it will be "a true seventh generation" chip and not just a modification of the P6 family. Using the same basic pipeline as P6, the Willamette will offer more decoders and function units and have a larger reorder buffer.
It will offer what Gwennap refers to as MMX2, the same technology featured in Katmai, although Intel has avoided using the MMX2 tag.
Willamette will offer 30 percent to 50 percent faster core performance than Deschutes at the same clock speeds, as fast as 800 MHz in 0.18-micron CMOS and as fast as 1.2 GHz in 0.13-micron CMOS.
Gwennap also said that although Intel's production costs have been rising and the company experienced a dip in market share a couple of years ago with small growth in gross profits again last year, the situation is changing. The company will continue to make up any ground it lost and will again have 80 percent of the market.
"I see '98 as looking better," Gwennap said, "especially in the second half."
MicroDesign Resources, which publishes Microprocessor Report, in Sebastopol, Calif., can be reached at (707) 824-4001 or mdronline.com. |
