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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (66141)	9/27/2025 2:16:57 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 67661

I find that the DCF on Guru Focus is pretty good for Oil/NG perhaps the growth estimates are better/easier for these types of companies. CTRA and DVN are two recent Buys I have made. Been accumulating DVN at/below $33/share and they have DCF still +49% undervalued. I think Guru Focus has a more difficult time with Tech, cyclicals and even many REITs I follow. For Tech it could be due to growth rates, EPS estimates; also Cyclicals EPS estimates vary significally over actual when looking out 10 years; For REITs could be focus is FCF not EPS and many I see are over valued based on DCF using their EPS estimates. So it depends on the long term (10 year) assumptions. Oil/NG pretty easy but these estimates also in the out years depend on the commodity price. The big thing, DCF makes assumption on the EPS so far out that any error in their valuation results may/could be way off. When you drill down on EPS that depends on Revenues, Operating Expenses, Margins and even dividends. The DCF analysis on Guru Focus does allow you to change variables. EPS w/o NRI; FCF; Adjusted Div; Discount rate; tangible BV. I have not really tweaked any of these but use the defaults. Just be aware that the AI results can have similar error unless you specify what some of these variables are. I like the idea that you can have Guro Focus add in tangible BV to the Fair Value. This might be good to add for the REITs. They have a lot of real estate assets.