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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (66154)	9/27/2025 11:09:32 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 67518

U.S. Stock Market hits most expensive valuation in history, surpassing the Dot Com Bubble and the run-up to the Great Depression 🤯 pic.twitter.com/sK1V4IajHc — Barchart (@Barchart) September 27, 2025

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (66154)

9/28/2025 9:32:08 AM

From: E_K_S

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 67518

Here is the CAGR on my AMAT position. It is No. 11 in the taxable portfolio. I started a tracking position in 2021 and scaled into a 32% position in 2022. After seeing the DCF valuations for AMAT in 2025, I decided to increase my holding/exposure by 3x.

Here are the Buys over the period

The total number of shares across all purchases is 150.

Here is the table summarizing your stock purchases by year, showing the number of transactions, shares bought, average cost per share, and the percentage of your total shares from each year's buys.

Year	Number of Buys	Shares Bought	Avg Cost/Share	% of Total Shares
2021	1	5	$114.27	3.33%
2022	12	48	$91.70	32.00%
2023	1	5	$142.04	3.33%
2024	0	0	N/A	0.00%
2025	18	92	$142.87	61.33%
Total	32	150	$125.52	100.00%

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Here is the table showing the purchases, the weighted average cost per share, the weighted average years held, and the CAGR for each yearly cohort, assuming the entire position is sold today at $203.92.

Year	Shares Purchased	Cost Basis/Share	Weighted Avg. Years Held	CAGR
2021	5	$114.27	4.53	13.63%
2022	48	$91.70	3.23	28.05%
2023	5	$142.04	1.86	21.40%
2024	0	N/A	N/A	N/A
2025	92	$142.87	0.48	108.54%

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I scale my buys in lots of 5 shares and base it on my avg cost. Notice how the CAGR falls the longer you hold the shares.

CAGR Comparison: AMAT vs. S&P 500

Purchase Year Cohort	Weighted Avg. Years Held (NY?)	AMAT CAGR	SPX CAGR	AMAT Outperformed SPX
2021	4.5256	13.63%	11.97%	Yes
2022	3.2285	28.05%	18.30%	Yes
2023	1.8601	21.40%	22.17%	No
2025	0.4777	108.54%	59.71%	Yes

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Across the entire holding period, your investment in AMAT has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 benchmark.

Investment	Overall CAGR	Total Holding Period (Years)
AMAT	43.71%	1.7601
S&P 500 (SPX)	28.37%	1.7601

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I like to keep gains inside the portfolio. Trying to find a 'rule' when to scale out and/or take gains is difficult. I suppose one can use the DCF Value calculation to help one stay in the position as long as DCF is undervalued.

This is a taxable account so selling creates a taxable event. If you sell, when do you get back in and how do you scale those new Buys?

I have been using a 30% CAGR as an alert to start to peel off shares.

For now, Gemini AI helps create the CAGE results over time and can be a helpful tool on measuring individual stock portfolio results.