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To: E_K_S who wrote (66386)	10/3/2025 5:16:34 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68479

Grok: assume you are an economist. write a paper on the effects of commodity prices (oil and gas) assuming that most of the energy for data centers for the next 5 years is coming from conventional energy generation. Reports have indicate a glut of energy over the next few years. Will the demand from data centers offset the glut. Provide a chain of thought. Create the answer using narrative prose. Assume an academic tone. Answer: The Interplay of Supply Surpluses and Emerging Demands: Assessing the Impact of Data Center Growth on Oil and Natural Gas Prices, 2025–2030 Abstract This paper examines the projected effects of surging energy demand from data centers on commodity prices for oil and natural gas over the next five years, under the assumption that conventional energy generation—predominantly fossil fuels—will supply the majority of this incremental load. Drawing on recent forecasts from authoritative sources such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), we first delineate the anticipated glut in global oil and natural gas supplies, characterized by excess capacity and subdued demand growth. We then quantify the electricity consumption trajectories for data centers, driven largely by artificial intelligence (AI) applications, and evaluate their reliance on fossil fuel-based generation. Through a structured chain of reasoning, we assess whether this demand surge is sufficient to offset the supply overhang, mitigating downward pressure on prices. Our analysis concludes that while data center expansion will modestly bolster natural gas demand, particularly in electricity generation, it is unlikely to fully counteract the glut in either commodity, leading to sustained price volatility and subdued pricing dynamics through 2030. Introduction The global energy landscape in the mid-2020s is marked by a confluence of contradictory forces: an oversupply of fossil fuels juxtaposed against accelerating demand from digital infrastructure. Reports from the IEA and EIA underscore a looming glut in oil and natural gas production capacity, fueled by prior investments in upstream development and a deceleration in post-pandemic consumption growth. Concurrently, the proliferation of data centers, propelled by AI and cloud computing, is poised to reshape electricity demand patterns. Assuming, as posited, that conventional energy sources—namely natural gas and, to a lesser extent, oil-derived fuels—will dominate the energy mix for these facilities over the 2025–2030 horizon, this paper interrogates the net implications for commodity prices. Our inquiry proceeds in a logical sequence: first, elucidating the supply-side glut; second, profiling the demand-side escalation from data centers; third, scrutinizing the energy sourcing assumptions; and fourth, synthesizing these elements via a chain-of-thought analysis to forecast price trajectories. This framework not only illuminates the macroeconomic ramifications but also highlights the transitional tensions in the energy sector amid decarbonization imperatives. The Projected Glut in Oil and Natural Gas Supplies Contemporary projections paint a picture of structural oversupply in both oil and natural gas markets extending into the late 2020s. For crude oil, the IEA's Oil 2025 report anticipates total supply capacity expanding by 6 million barrels per day (b/d) to 113.8 million b/d by 2030, surpassing projected demand by a staggering 8 million b/d. This surplus stems from non-OPEC+ producers, particularly in the Americas, ramping up output amid high inventory builds—exceeding 2 million b/d globally from the third quarter of 2025 through the first quarter of 2026. The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook corroborates this, forecasting subdued prices in early 2026 due to these accumulations, with broader implications for a "massive oil glut" by decade's end as electric vehicle adoption and efficiency gains curb transportation fuel needs. Natural gas markets exhibit parallel dynamics, albeit with a liquefied natural gas (LNG) emphasis. Global LNG capacity is slated to surge 60% by 2030, with the United States contributing half of new additions, precipitating a period of heavy oversupply. The IEA's World Energy Outlook signals that this glut will endure into the 2030s under stated policies, obviating the need for fresh supply until 2040 at the earliest. Oxford Energy Institute analyses similarly warn of LNG prices reverting to $8 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) or below by the decade's close, as short-run pricing dynamics overwhelm demand. These surpluses, rooted in overinvestment during the 2022 energy crisis, threaten to depress spot and forward prices, exacerbating volatility for producers and fiscal strains on resource-dependent economies. The Surge in Data Center Energy Demand Data centers, the linchpin of the digital economy, are forecasted to drive unprecedented electricity consumption growth. The IEA projects global data center electricity use to more than double by 2030, reaching 945 terawatt-hours (TWh)—equivalent to Japan's annual total—expanding at 15% annually from 2024 onward, outpacing overall electricity demand fourfold. Goldman Sachs Research amplifies this, envisioning a 165% escalation by 2030, with a 50% interim rise by 2027, while McKinsey estimates peak at 1,400 TWh, or 4% of global electricity. U.S.-centric projections are equally stark: data center load could claim 6.7%–12% of national generation by 2030, doubling or tripling from current levels per the Department of Energy. This voracious appetite is inextricably linked to AI, which could account for 35%–50% of data center power by 2030, up from 5%–15% today. Yet, estimates vary due to modeling variances—ranging from 300–400 TWh globally by 2030 in conservative scenarios to over 1,000 TWh in aggressive ones—reflecting uncertainties in hyperscale expansions and edge computing. Irrespective, the incremental demand—potentially 500–1,000 TWh over five years—represents a seismic shift, comparable to adding the electricity needs of several mid-sized economies. Reliance on Conventional Energy Generation Under the paper's core assumption, the bulk of this augmented demand will be met by conventional sources, aligning with empirical trends and infrastructural realities. Currently, fossil fuels furnish nearly 60% of data center electricity worldwide, with renewables at 27%. In the U.S., where data center growth is concentrated, natural gas dominates baseload generation, and projections suggest it will absorb much of the load surge if renewable buildout lags. BloombergNEF forecasts an 84% jump in renewable generation over five years, yet this may insufficiently offset data center needs, prolonging fossil fuel plant lifespans. Reports indicate data centers are increasingly securing dedicated gas-fired capacity or co-locating with pipelines, with one analysis projecting a 3.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) uplift in U.S. natural gas demand by 2030—necessitating 6.1 bcf/d of new infrastructure. Oil's role is more peripheral, primarily in backup diesel generators rather than primary generation, rendering its direct exposure minimal. Nonetheless, systemic pressures—such as grid strains—could indirectly sustain oil demand if fossil backups proliferate. This fossil-heavy mix, while transitional, underscores the tension between digital acceleration and emission goals, potentially extending coal and gas assets beyond retirement schedules. Analytical Chain of Thought: Does Data Center Demand Offset the Glut? To ascertain whether data center expansion will neutralize the supply glut, we employ a stepwise chain of reasoning, integrating quantitative benchmarks and qualitative dynamics. First, calibrate the demand increment against total energy markets. Data centers' projected 500–1,000 TWh electricity addition by 2030 equates to roughly 1.5%–3% of global generation (from ~28,000 TWh in 2023). Assuming 60% fossil sourcing, this translates to 300–600 TWh of fossil fuel-derived power, predominantly natural gas (given coal's decline). For gas, 600 TWh approximates 20–25 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually—drawing on a heat rate of ~7,000 Btu/kWh and conversion factors—augmenting total demand by ~0.5%–0.6% yearly, aligned with the 3.3 bcf/d (~34 bcm/year) U.S.-focused estimate. Second, juxtapose this against supply projections. Oil's 8 million b/d glut (~1.2 billion tons/year) dwarfs the negligible data center pull (<0.1% impact), as electricity generation relies minimally on oil globally. Thus, oil prices face unmitigated downward pressure, potentially averaging $60–70 per barrel through 2026–2030, per EIA and IEA baselines. For natural gas, the offset is more substantive yet incomplete. The LNG capacity boom—adding ~200 million tons/year—outstrips demand growth, including data centers, yielding persistent oversupply. Even if data centers claim 30%–40% of U.S. incremental electricity (per industry views), global gas demand rises ~2%–3% annually under IEA scenarios, insufficient to absorb the 60% capacity surge. Prices may stabilize at $6–8/MMBtu but remain volatile, with regional divergences (e.g., U.S. Henry Hub buoyed by domestic loads). Third, incorporate externalities: Grid constraints and permitting delays could amplify fossil reliance, modestly enhancing the offset. Conversely, efficiency gains in AI hardware and accelerated renewables (e.g., 84% growth) might attenuate demand. Net, the chain yields a partial mitigation for gas—curbing glut severity by 10%–20%—but no reversal, preserving price suppression. Conclusion In sum, the data center boom, while transformative, will not fully offset the oil and natural gas gluts of the coming quinquennium. Natural gas benefits from a tangible demand tailwind, potentially softening price troughs and supporting midstream investments, yet the LNG deluge ensures oversupply dominance. Oil, insulated from direct electricity linkages, confronts unalloyed surplus risks. Policymakers must navigate this disequilibrium, balancing digital imperatives with energy security and climate objectives. Future research should monitor renewable penetration rates, as deviations could recalibrate these trajectories. Absent such shifts, commodity markets will endure a period of subdued pricing, underscoring the fossil fuel sector's transitional vulnerabilities.

To: E_K_S who wrote (66386)	10/3/2025 6:23:14 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68479

× Investor's Business DailyInvestor's Business DailyFREE - In Google Play VIEW AI SHOPPING: What An 'Agentic Commerce' Future Looks Like SubscribeSign In Sections My IBD Market Trend Stock Lists Research News Videos Learn Store Technology AI Shopping Is About To Upend E-Commerce. What It Means for Amazon, Walmart, Meta, Google. Tech and retail giants like Amazon and Walmart see a future where AI can make shopping decisions faster and with more precision. (© Dave Cutler) RYAN DEFFENBAUGH Updated 08:00 AM ET 10/03/2025 It sounds like science fiction, but AI shopping could soon become an e-commerce reality. You're looking to buy a gift for mom or dad, or for running shoes under $100. An AI chatbot familiar with who you are, your tastes, your family's tastes and even your finances helps in the quest. "How about a pair of Nikes on Walmart.com?" the bot asks. "It fits your budget right now." Welcome to the world of "agentic commerce," a buzzy term for shopping powered by AI. The trend offers big opportunities for gains in Amazon ( AMZN) stock and other big names in the e-commerce ecosystem like Google parent Alphabet ( GOOGL), Facebook owner Meta Platforms ( META), Walmart ( WMT), Shopify ( SHOP) and eBay ( EBAY). It's a potentially disruptive trend, underscored by OpenAI's Sept. 29 announcement that it will soon allow shoppers to buy items directly through ChatGPT, its blockbuster chatbot that helped unleash the AI revolution three years ago. 00:00 / 05:51 ?Why Amazon Is Expanding Into Everything From AI To Auto What AI Shopping Means For E-Commerce StocksTech-enabled shopping, where consumers get automated recommendations for what, where and when to buy, is not new. But retail and e-commerce giants are eyeing a future where AI can make shopping decisions faster and with more precision, based on detailed knowledge of products for sale, what you want or need, and even what you can afford. AI-powered shopping agents are now a major focus for the Big Tech stocks and retailers as they explore ways to embed AI tools into their operations. "Every retailer is at least dipping their toes and figuring out how can we implement AI," CFRA analyst Arun Sundaram told Investor's Business Daily. "It seems retailers are realizing this will likely apply to a lot more areas than initially thought." A lot is at stake. Americans alone spend more than $1 trillion annually in e-commerce transactions, according to eMarketer estimates. E-commerce companies are often among the top advertisers on Google's search engine and Meta's Instagram and Facebook. AI chatbots are carving a place in that shopping ecosystem. An Adobe report published this summer found that referrals to e-commerce product pages from AI bots, including ChatGPT, jumped 4,700% year over year in July. "We are finding customers are increasingly trusting the insights and responses they get from LLMs (large language models)," Adobe analyst Vivek Pandya told IBD. Growth Stocks To Buy For The Long Term Chatbots Play Bigger RoleChatGPT, with more than 700 million weekly active users, is at the center of the AI explosion. BofA Securities analysts estimate that ChatGPT will receive about 20 billion messages this year related to shopping. That number is based on a recent study from OpenAI's Economic Research team, which found that about 2% of the 2.5 billion daily prompts ChatGPT receives involve "judging the quality of objects, services or people." ChatGPT is still just one of the ways consumers shop. About 30% of shoppers typically start their search for products directly on a marketplace site such as Amazon, according to a recent poll by e-commerce software platform Coveo. ChatGPT and other large language models were the starting place for just 3%. But OpenAI's announcement could build on ChatGPT's momentum. The company will partner with Etsy ( ETSY) to allow users to buy items within ChatGPT from U.S. merchants. Merchants with Shopify ( SHOP) pages will soon also be able to offer direct sales through ChatGPT. OpenAI will collect a fee on the transactions. Details of the plan have not been disclosed. The plan could create a new revenue source for OpenAI, which has committed to spending hundreds of billions of dollars on data centers and other infrastructure to support its AI models. Investors appear excited about ChatGPT's potential to drive sales. Etsy stock jumped 16% following the news, while Shopify stock added 6%. OpenAI's Big AmbitionsOpenAI has bigger ambitions. The startup, which was recently valued at more than $500 billion by private investors, also launched an open-source tool for developers called the Agentic Commerce Protocol. The goal is to make it easier for other e-commerce platforms and sellers to offer product purchases directly through ChatGPT. "This launch is just the beginning," the company said in a blog post. "As AI becomes a key interface for how people discover, decide, and buy, the Agentic Commerce Protocol provides a foundation that connects people and businesses for the next era of commerce." The move could be a step toward "flipping the internet upside down," D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said in a client note. "We see this as an important milestone in changing the commercial structure of the internet away from human-targeted websites found through search, into chat-discoverable websites." OpenAI's move may add to fears about ChatGPT disrupting Google's massive search engine advertising business. Google stock fell 1% following OpenAI's announcement. "The deal suggests competition between OpenAI, Google and Amazon will likely ramp in the race to become the leading Agentic AI starting place," BofA Securities analyst Justin Post wrote in a client note. AI Shopping: The New Tech BrawlRetail's two biggest names have made big AI shopping moves of their own. Amazon unveiled Rufus, a shopping assistant that can help users narrow down choices and answer questions about individual products. Walmart introduced Sparky, an AI assistant with similar capabilities. Both companies are eyeing broader agentic capabilities. In April, Amazon started testing a "Buy For Me" button with "agents" that allow customers to purchase products from other websites without leaving the Amazon site or app. Walmart is promising that Sparky will soon power up agentic capabilities as well. In one example the company gave in a June blog post, telling Sparky "I need party ideas" will send the bot on a quest to find recommendations for themes, food and gifts all "highly personalized and coordinated within budget." Meanwhile, Google launched a series of shopping tools for its Gemini chatbot in July, including virtual try-ons and price tracking. Meta is pitching its Meta AI app as a place for recommendations and its AI-powered Ray-Ban smartglasses as a tool for identifying products. OpenAI's Operator agent — launched earlier this year — allows for purchases from eBay and other sites. Individual brands are getting in on the act too. Ralph Lauren worked with Microsoft ( MSFT) to launch Ask Ralph, which provides styling inspiration and full outfit suggestions based on user prompts. Eric Bellomo, e-commerce analyst with PitchBook, said AI and machine learning have long been integrated into digital commerce companies' operations, ranging from advertising to employee training. But ChatGPT ignited greater interest. Retail is often an area where companies test technologies, he added. "When we zoom out a little bit and think back to the internet and then onto cloud-based computing and mobile, commerce was a proving ground for a lot of these experiences," Bellomo told IBD. AI Shopping Turf WarFor now, agentic commerce is still small. Pinterest ( PINS) Chief Executive Bill Ready recently painted a picture of AI-powered shopping as a long game. He told analysts on the company's earnings call in July, "This notion of an agent just going and buying all the things for you without you doing anything, I think that's going to be a very, very long cycle for that to play out." For one thing, retailers must grapple with the expected risks shifting to AI-powered e-commerce. One of them is that retailers could lose direct relationships with customers. Bellomo sees a "turf war" brewing among the biggest names in tech and retail. Amazon has taken steps to limit the ability of AI bots from Google and others to crawl its website and scoop up data, The Information reported in late July. Shopify similarly set boundaries for agentic AI systems, according to a report from Modern Retail. E-commerce analyst Juozas Kaziukenas put it this way in a LinkedIn post: "No one wants to be where the AI agents are shopping at — everyone wants to build AI agents that do the shopping." Amazon may have enough firepower to go it alone. "If Amazon just wants to pull up the drawbridge on their moat, so to speak, they have an opportunity to do that," Bellomo said. "They have an enormous source of product reviews. People start their searches on Amazon." Asked for further comment on agentic commerce, an Amazon spokesperson referred IBD to its blog post on the "Buy For Me" feature. "We want to make it even easier for customers to find any product they want and need," the blog post says. AI Shopping Boosts EBay Stock Approaches to shopping agents vary. EBay has partnered with OpenAI on some initiatives, including a test of its Operator AI agent. "It's about meeting buyers where they are," eBay's Chief AI Officer Nitzan Mekel-Bobrov told IBD in an email. "Many shoppers now start on platforms like ChatGPT or Gemini." EBay also launched several other AI-powered tools. It has a generative AI assistant to help customers identify products on its site. A Magical Listing tool helps generate text and other information required from sellers to list products. Long overshadowed by Amazon, AI is helping eBay stock gain backers on Wall Street. Shares have rallied more than 40% over the past 12 months. The company believes AI can help it offer more ways for customers to interact with its more than 2 billion product listings. "Today, AI is streamlining listings, improving search and inspiring new ways to explore and shop," eBay's Mekel-Bobrov told IBD. "Looking ahead, we see agent-driven commerce as the next evolution in how people connect on eBay." Impact On FintechAI shopping could create headaches for another e-commerce segment: payments processors. Financial services consultancy Edgar, Dunn & Co. projects that the total market for agentic commerce — meaning transactions initiated by AI agents — will reach $136 billion this year and could grow to $1.7 trillion by 2030. That increase will bring new challenges in preventing fraud and unauthorized purchases, the consultancy said in a research note. Payments giants Mastercard ( MA) and Visa ( V) have already launched tools focused on agentic commerce. Financial technology firms like PayPal ( PYPL), Square parent Block ( XYZ) and Affirm ( AFRM) are all preparing for agent shoppers as well. Affirm CEO Max Levchin told IBD in a recent interview that he expects soon that an "AI companion will be with you every step of the way, all the way through checkout, as opposed to until you're ready to go to a checkout." Recently, Google launched a payments protocol for agents in collaboration with PayPal, Mastercard and others. OpenAI's Agentic Commerce Protocol appears to be a direct competitor. OpenAI has partnered with payments startup Stripe on its offering. Consumer Buy-In For AI ShoppingAs tech players build the infrastructure for agentic commerce, there is still one unsettled question: How often will consumers use agent shoppers? After all, shopping habits can be hard to break. E-commerce hasn't entirely disrupted in-store shopping. Online sales accounted for 16% of the $1.8 trillion that Americans spent on retail purchases in April, May and June, according to U.S. Census data. For AI, trust and privacy remain major hurdles. "Hallucinations," the publishing of incorrect information by models, are a serious concern. A survey of 1,500 U.S. consumers by KPMG earlier this year found that 43% were uncomfortable with the idea of companies using generative AI to analyze their personal data for shopping recommendations. Sucharita Kodali, a retail analyst with Forrester, said AI bots make the most sense for large retailers with millions of users and huge product catalogs to sort through. They may not make sense for smaller retailers with less inventory and fewer potential questions from shoppers. Tools that try to harness technology to make shopping easier have historically run into the issue of just not having the right data. Apparel styling is one example. "There have been so many companies that have tried to create fabulous styling solutions to mimic Alicia Silverstone's closet from the movie Clueless back in the 1990s," Kodali told IBD. "Nothing has worked. And a significant reason nothing has worked is because you need to really know the individual's closet. And no one has the time or resources to take a picture of everything in their darn closet." Is ChatGPT An Ad Challenger?CFRA's Sundaram said shoppers are still mostly looking for value and fast delivery when they shop online. "One of the biggest reasons people choose to buy on Amazon is the convenience," CFRA's Sundaram told IBD. "They also are competitive on price, but no one is going to beat Amazon in terms of delivery speed." AI agents could challenge another part of the shopping experience: Advertising. Wall Street is still debating the impact of generative AI bots on the search-based ad empire of Google and Meta's dominance in social media-driven ads. OpenAI's Instant Checkout " will be fantastically successful for OpenAI as the foundation of its advertising business," Eric Seufert, a media and marketing strategist, wrote in a blog post. "While Instant Checkout may only appeal to a specific swath of the e-commerce merchant base, the data it gleans from facilitating transactions — data which can be attached to individual, logged-in ChatGPT user profiles — is enormously valuable for ad targeting," he argued. So far, OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman has taken a skeptical stance toward advertising on ChatGPT in public comments — but he hasn't ruled it out. Other competitors are moving forward. Meta recently told customers it will begin targeting ads on Facebook and Instagram based on conversations with its AI bot later this year. Advertising Is Key To Amazon StockThe spotlight on advertising is critical for Amazon, which is a major player in that space as well. The tech giant is expected to collect $67.6 billion in advertising revenue this year, according to FactSet. It is leader in retail media advertising, which refers to ads sold within an online marketplace. The high-margin business is a key source of profit for Amazon's overall North American retail segment. Walmart, eBay, Etsy and app-based platforms like DoorDash ( DASH), Uber Technologies ( UBER) and Instacart parent Maplebear ( CART) also are competing for advertising spending. "We view the core businesses across our e-commerce coverage overall as largely immune to the rise of agents, though we do believe less traffic to e-commerce sites and apps may diminish the ability to garner retail media advertising budgets at a rate that would have occurred in the absence of agents," Stifel analysts wrote in a recent client note. Walmart's Chief Technology Officer Hari Vasudev told the Wall Street Journal in May that the company is preparing to welcome new agent shoppers and "advertising will have to evolve." What AI Shopping Means For E-Commerce StocksThe spotlight on AI-powered e-commerce is growing at a time of nervous Wall Street debate over the direction of AI. Speculation about an AI bubble has hit both AI and some e-commerce stocks recently. Amazon stock slumped in recent weeks as its Relative Strength Rating dropped to 53 from 75 three months ago, according to IBD MarketSurge. Walmart shares are still up more than 12% year to date, but have shed nearly 2% this quarter. Its Relative Strength Rating has fallen to 70 from 84 three months ago. But analysts remain upbeat about AI's momentum in e-commerce and beyond. Some are adamant that talk of a bubble doesn't make sense. "Are you calling Walmart's latest commitment to rewire its supply chain using AI a bubble?" Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes said in a client note this week. "How about JPMorgan rolling out LLMs to 140,000 employees?" The brawl is bound to become more heated in e-commerce where giants like Walmart, Amazon and Meta are sending strong signals that they don't want to be left behind. "This is still very, very early innings here," CFRA's Sundaram told IBD. "But everyone is thinking about how much they need to invest into this to stay relevant for the next 10-15 years because if they don't, they could certainly fall behind." YOU MAY ALSO LIKE: Amazon Stock Regains Some Ground. A New Grocery Line And AI Devices Are Coming. IBD Live: Learn And Analyze Growth Stocks With The Pros Get Timely Buy & Sell Alerts With IBD Leaderboard Find Top Growth Stocks To Buy And Watch Seagate, Western Digital Surge On Price Target Hikes. Why Hard Drives Are Getting An AI Boost. Related news Shopify Stock, TE Connectivity Hit New Highs As Appetite For AI Plays Rises8:06 AM ET Shopify stock, TE Connectivity hit new highs in renewed appetite... 'This Feels Different To Me,' Says Award-Winning Fund Manager AI Cloud Concerns Hover Over Amazon Stock. But Analyst Says Don't Forget This 'Crown Jewel.' AI Stocks Face 'Show Me' Test. Why Oracle, Salesforce Analyst Days Will Be Big Events. Will Agentic Shopping Be Good News For Affirm, Buy Now, Pay Later Firms? 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