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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: posthumousone who wrote (14396)	2/25/1998 2:58:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Gary, last summer there was talk on this tread of an 'upward crash" IMHO it is happening now. A screw driver company like DELL takes off as a rocket,only as a result of marketing savy no technological improvements. Same applies to AOL in many ways marketing and "novel" accounting. No one will be able to spot the top in a calculated fashion but we are on borrowed time with regard to equities. The beginning of month effect already started and will continue next week, After that will see. Would admit that I indended to go long this mornig for a day trade, but missed the move due to my real job. Those are my 2 cents. All in cash Haim

To: posthumousone who wrote (14396)	2/25/1998 3:00:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

Gary ; Visit the mutual fund sector, that's a place I hang out some learn about mutual funds before getting to deep in stocks. I trade stocks a lot as I enjoy it , but when I get tired I go to mutual funds and stick with no load funds. You don't need the hottest runner..but a steady track record means a lot one that has very few down months is a good way to start. With any respectable fund you can wait out the bad times, it may take a while if the market tanks but they come back. Split it up some and look for funds that offer a web page Kaufmann, or Oakmark, or Fidelity are all good. The latter two you can go part bonds and part stocks. Steady gains add up, but get rich fast thingies often don't work. Don't play options or Shorts till you make profit playing longs then limit your risk on thoes other plays to your profit. Conservation of capital is number 1. Jim Jim

To: posthumousone who wrote (14396)	2/26/1998 1:36:00 AM
From: Bonnie Bear	Respond to of 94695

Gary: for the average investor the stock market is like eating hot dogs. He doesn't want to know what's in the hot dog, he'd never eat another one in his life if you told him the truth, and as long as 8 out of 10 hot dogs doesn't give him diarrhea he'll keep buying them at the game and he'll forget about the two bad ones he ate. I ran lots of numbers on risk/reward ratios and portfolio mix...it seems that with a very small combination of value microcap and/or brokerage stocks and the rest in money-market (75-80%) I can beat any of the recommended stock/bond portfolio mixes with virtually no downside risk, so that's where I'm at. It also seems that if you wait patiently to buy only on that inevitable one or two times a year when the russell 2000 falls below its moving average you do even better. Honor among thieves, the brokerage stocks are all very reasonably priced right now, if you MUST buy you might consider buying the vultures. If you don't mind holding in case the market dives before you can get out, Rydex funds has a OTC fund that mimics the Nas index, schwab has an international index fund swinx, and mdy for the S&P.

To: posthumousone who wrote (14396)	2/26/1998 4:46:00 AM
From: paulmcg0	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

[I'm 30 year old engineer] I'm a 33 year old engineer in a similar situation -- no debts and waiting for the market to decline. I know what you mean about people at work being fixated on the latest "hot" stocks and mutual funds, but then again I know fellow engineers who have already had stock losses in the tens of thousands of dollars each, who had tech stocks (bought on margin) that took a dive. Nobody seems to realize that the stock market is a form of gambling. So, let's review a few maxims of gambling: (1) There is no such item as an "absolute sure thing". (2) Understand the rules of the game you are playing -- don't bet money on games you don't understand. (3) Never gamble with money you can't afford to lose. (4) Never gamble with borrowed money (i.e. buying stocks on margin). (5) Cut your losses and walk away if you have to, instead of getting deeper in the hole. Paul McGinnis

To: posthumousone who wrote (14396)	2/26/1998 10:47:00 PM
From: Skipperr	Respond to of 94695

Hi Gary - I used to feel the way you do. I read a good piece about the psychology of investing that made the point that if I was scared to put my money in a rapidly-rising market, it was an indication that I didn't have a good exit strategy. That really made sense to me. As a result of that, I came up with my own exit strategy which got me to 100% cash if the indicator(s) were hit. I was in sector and diversified funds. If a little after 3:00PM Eastern Time, my indicator(s) were hit (that day!), I called and just got out - 100%! And, I did it! Since then, I've had the confidence to get in, no matter what. Of course you have to 1st have a good buying strategy, i. e., using relative strength on high momentum funds to select the fastest growing fund, for instance. I feel that if you have a good exit strategy, and you have confidence in it, and you are willing to execute it when your parameters are hit, come hell or high water, you should jump on this roaring bull with everything you've got. Just have a good plan, and be ready to jump off, when the time comes! It works for me! Best regards, Skipperr