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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Disabled Account who wrote (8910)	2/25/1998 4:11:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 152472

Forbes is an interesting case in magazine publishing. It is eclectic in its news articles but "old school wall street" in its columns. And the ASAP supplement which comes out every 3 months is a rich source of information in depth on a wide range of technologies. The ASAP is where I found George Gilder, for which I for one am grateful. Re Bear-ons and the WSJ - stone age (except for ultra liberal WSJ Washington reporting) would be putting it kindly. Barrons reflects a bearish bias of extraordinary strength - excellent contrarian indicator IMO. All this is just my probably totally wrong view based on some years of observation. Chaz

To: Disabled Account who wrote (8910)	2/25/1998 4:35:00 PM
From: Gregg Powers	Respond to of 152472

Art: The Forbes article not only contradicts QC's publicly-stated position, but additionally misrepresents the economics of the company's business in the region. As we have discussed previously in this thread, QC's Korean customers sell handsets into both domestic and export markets. The won's decline does not impact royalties deriving from export sales, and Samsung has publicly indicated that it intended to increase its export efforts. In addition, there continues to be confusion regarding the difference between "churn" and gross subscriber additions in the Korean market. Based on the metrics recently posted on this thread, SK Telecom has over 4mm subscribers and, prior to the financial crisis, was experiencing monthly churn of around 1.5% (i.e. 60,000 subscribers would fall of the system per month). This compares favorably to most U.S. carriers, whose monthly churn runs slighly less than 2%. Within this context, a 30,000 subscriber increase in churn (i.e. the number bandied about at the Robertson Stevens conference by some anonymous portfolio manager), would push SK's monthly churn to around 2.25%--just slightly higher than the average U.S. carrier. Viewed in the context, Korea's cellular industry hardly appears to be on its death bed. Total subscriber GROWTH may have slowed, but the market continues to expand at a rapid clip (i.e. Modoff, @BT Alex Brown, still expects 5mm net subscriber adds for the year). Finally, I spoke with the reporter (Woolley) directly, and he seemed open and honorable, if misinformed. He was clearly spoonfed the bear case by a short-seller and acknowledged that the topic was very difficult both to understand and to address give the column's size limitation. I offered to provide a balanced rebuttal if he planned a follow-up. Best Regards, Gregg