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To: Les H who wrote (48196)10/9/2025 4:25:49 PM
From: Les H  Respond to of 48833
 



To: Les H who wrote (48196)10/9/2025 4:43:58 PM
From: Don Green  Respond to of 48833
 
Donald Trump’s Current Odds for Winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize



Nobel Pick: Donald Trump To Win 2025 Nobel Peace Prize (+450) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
While US President Donald Trump was Time’s 2024 Person of the Year, an award he also won in 2016, you could see him add the Nobel Peace Prize to his list of accomplishments in 2025 if the latest sportsbooks odds are accurate.

At Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), Trump has +500 odds to win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, which only trails Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (+300). Others near the top of the Bovada odds include the award-winning documentary filmmaker David Attenborough (+800), young climate activist Greta Thunberg (+800), and the richest man in the world, Elon Musk (+900).

However, BetOnline offers a very different list of odds for the award, but the consistent factor is that Trump has the 2nd-best odds of anyone at the moment.

  • Yulia Navalnaya (-200): Chairperson of the Human Rights Foundation and the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died in a Russian prison in 2024.
  • Donald Trump (+450): The 47th President of the United States.
  • David Attenborough (+1000): A 99-year-old English documentary filmmaker known for the Planet Earth franchise, The Blue Planet, and many more.
  • Antonio Guterres (+1000): Portuguese secretary-general of the United Nations (since 2017) and the former prime minister of Portugal (1995-2002).
  • Julian Assange (+1000): Australian founder of WikiLeaks.
Given the fact that Navalnaya’s odds are not even listed at Bovada, it is a rare sight to see these two respected offshore sportsbooks this far apart on the odds of a betting market. This could mean great value for bettors as it’s a real toss-up at the moment.

Keep in mind that the winner will be announced on October 10, 2025.

Here’s a snapshot of Donald Trump’s current odds for winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, based on multiple betting platforms and prediction markets as of October 9, 2025:

?? Betting Odds Summary Platform / SourceOdds FormatImplied ProbabilityNotes
Oddspedia+10050%Lists Trump as the favorite, citing his Gaza peace plan 1.
Star Sports (UK)3/125%Trump is second favorite behind Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms 2.
PolymarketMarket price6.5% ? 2.7% declineTrump’s odds dropped recently; sixth favorite overall 3 4.
FanDuel Canada+380~20.8%Behind Navalnaya and Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms 5.
BetOnline (Offshore)+20033.3%Trump is second favorite, behind Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms 6.
Kalshi (Prediction Market)Market price~4%Indicates skepticism despite media buzz 5.
?? What’s Driving the Odds?
  • Gaza Peace Plan: Trump announced a U.S.-brokered deal involving troop withdrawals and hostage releases, which boosted his odds temporarily 3 6.
  • Public Endorsements: Figures like Benjamin Netanyahu and Eric Trump have publicly supported his candidacy 3 6.
  • Timing Issues: The Nobel Committee reportedly finalized its decision before the Gaza deal was announced, which may affect Trump’s eligibility this year 7.
?? Interpretation While Trump’s odds surged after the Gaza announcement, they vary widely depending on the platform. Traditional sportsbooks show him as a strong contender, while prediction markets—where users trade based on expected outcomes—are more skeptical. This divergence reflects both political sentiment and the speculative nature of betting markets.

If you’d like, I can break down how these odds compare to past U.S. presidents or explore the Nobel nomination process itself.

Legacy of PeaceFor reference, hundreds of people and organizations are nominated (often in secret) for this award each year. The 2024 Nobel Peace Prize winner was Nihon Hidankyo (the Japan Confederation of A- and H-Bomb Sufferers Organizations), an organization that represents survivors of the nuclear bombs that hit Japan (Hiroshima and Nagasaki) in 1945.

Also, a US president has only won the award 4 times in history, and it wasn’t always for achievement during their term in office:

  • Theodore Roosevelt won in 1906 for negotiating peace in the Russo-Japanese War and other international conflicts.
  • Woodrow Wilson won in 1919 for establishing the League of Nations and working towards peace after World War I.
  • Jimmy Carter was president in the late 1970s, but he won the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize for his decades of work in diplomacy and with the Carter Center.
  • Barack Obama controversially won the award in 2009 during his first year in office for his efforts to improve international diplomacy.
Can Trump become the 5th to win it? That likely depends on what happens with Ukraine.

Donald Trump’s Path to VictoryThe Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded since 1901 to the people who have “done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.”

While Donald Trump has been criticized for seeking retribution in his 2nd term as president, this award is more interested in how you are handling peace around the world with other nations.

For all of his criticisms, Trump is a very anti-war president who believes he can negotiate peace deals with anyone. He ran his 2024 campaign on the idea that he would end the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestine, and he said he would end the Ukraine-Russian war within 24 hours of stepping back in office.

That obviously hasn’t happened yet, but Trump has called for a ceasefire and release of hostages in Gaza. He has publicly criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin and asked him to stop killing people and end the war with Ukraine. He also pushed for the 2020 Abraham Accords to foster peace between Israel and Arab nations.

Being a key part of the resolution to end the war in Ukraine would be Trump’s best argument for winning the award. Him taking on a larger role in that than Zelensky, who vows his people will continue defending their home, would also help Trump’s case.

However, that’s a tall task. Voters may also be turned off by Trump’s treatment of US allies like Canada by trying to make them the 51st state, and his tariff plans have caused chaos on the global markets. Still, despite being too controversial to get such an award, there is at least a path (via Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas) for him to have a solid argument.

Nobel Pick: Donald Trump To Win 2025 Nobel Peace Prize (+450) at BetOnline


Donald Trump To Win 2025 Nobel Peace Prize (+450)


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