Market Snapshot
| Dow | 45479.39 | -878.82 | (-1.90%) | | Nasdaq | 22204.45 | -820.20 | (-3.56%) | | SP 500 | 6552.50 | -182.60 | (-2.71%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 398 | Dec 2391 | Vol 1.34 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 760 | Dec 3955 | Vol 11.70 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Consumer Staples |
| | Weak: Energy, Information Technology, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Real Estate, Materials, Industrials, Health Care |
Moving the Market
Major averages move lower after President Trump condemns China for becoming "very hostile"
Oil prices fall amid higher tariff concerns
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Tariff threat triggers broad selloff
10-Oct-25 16:25 ET
Dow -878.82 at 45479.39, Nasdaq -820.20 at 22204.45, S&P -182.60 at 6552.50
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market endured its sharpest pullback in months after President Trump reignited trade tensions with China, sparking a broad-based selloff that erased the week’s gains.
The S&P 500 (-2.7%) registered its worst session since April, while the Nasdaq Composite (-3.6%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.9%) also faced sharp retreats. The small-cap Russell 2000 (-3.0%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-2.8%) also underperformed as investors rotated out of risk assets in response to the renewed geopolitical uncertainty.
Stocks opened higher as traders attempted another buy-the-dip effort following yesterday’s retreat, but sentiment reversed after President Trump posted on Truth Social that China is “becoming very hostile,” that he saw “no reason” to meet with President Xi at the upcoming APEC Summit, and that the U.S. is weighing a “massive increase” of tariffs on Chinese imports.
The post, which followed Beijing’s decision to tighten export controls on rare earth materials, triggered an immediate wave of selling that persisted through the afternoon.
The ensuing sell-off touched nearly every corner of the market. The information technology (-4.0%), consumer discretionary (-3.3%), and communication services (-2.3%) sectors were among the worst performers, pressured by tariff-sensitive and high-beta names.
The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF slid 3.3%, as the market's largest names paced the decline throughout the session.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 6.3% as chipmakers, including NVIDIA (NVDA 183.04, -9.52, -4.95%) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 214.76, -18.13, -7.78%), faced additional pressure after Bloomberg reported that the Senate passed legislation to limit AI chip exports to China from the two companies.
Crude oil, meanwhile, extended its slide, falling $2.48 (-4.0%) to $58.94 per barrel on renewed global growth concerns, sending the energy sector (-2.8%) sharply lower.
On the upside, the rare earth and critical mineral space provided a rare pocket of strength. MP Materials (MP 78.51, +6.22, +8.60%) and related domestic producers rallied on expectations of U.S. countermeasures to China’s export restrictions.
The defensive consumer staples (+0.3%) also held firm, finishing the day as the only S&P 500 sector in positive territory. PepsiCo (PEP 150.08, +5.37, +3.71%) was the top advancing name in the S&P 500, as today's defensive sentiment combined with continued post-earnings strength.
After a long stretch of low-volatility sessions, the market finally encountered a meaningful macro shock, breaking the recent pattern of steady buy-the-dip advances. President Trump's comments reignited trade tension and prompted broad profit-taking across nearly every pocket of the market. Decliners outpaced advancers by a roughly 5-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and Nasdaq, sending the major averages into negative territory for the week.
U.S. Treasuries finished the week on a firmly higher note, sending yields toward their September lows, with the 30-year yield settling at a level not seen since early April. The 2-year note yield settled down eight basis points to 3.52%, the 10-year note yield settled down ten basis points to 4.05%, and the 30-year note yield settled down ten basis points to 4.63%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +15.0% YTD
- S&P 500: +11.4% YTD
- Russell 2000: +7.4% YTD
- DJIA: +6.9% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +1.3% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for October checked in at 55.0 (Briefing.com consensus: 54.5) versus the final reading of 55.1 for September. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 70.5.
- The key takeaway from the report is that consumers are not expecting any meaningful improvement in prices or job prospects, a view that could potentially crimp their discretionary spending activity.
Busy day of Fed speak overshadowed by China conerns
10-Oct-25 15:35 ET
Dow -741.29 at 45616.92, Nasdaq -693.85 at 22330.80, S&P -153.27 at 6581.83
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to hold sizable losses amid a broad market retreat.
While most of today's focus has centered around President Trump's comments towards China and the ensuing pullback in the market, it has actually been a rather busy day of Fedspeak.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller (FOMC voting member) stated that the Fed needs to cut rates with caution, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (FOMC voting member) said there is limited room for more easing.
The CME FedWatch tool now shows a 96.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut later this month (up from 94.1% yesterday) and a 92.2% probability of an additional cut in December (up from 81.0% yesterday).
The upward move in December cut rate expectations would have likely been a catalyst for equities today if not for the emerging trade concerns with China.
Oil prices fall
10-Oct-25 15:05 ET
Dow -665.39 at 45692.82, Nasdaq -618.46 at 22406.19, S&P -138.62 at 6596.48
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-2.1%), Nasdaq Composite (-2.8%), and DJIA (-1.5%) steadily chart new session lows in what has been the single worst day for the S&P 500 since the announcement of sweeping tariffs in early April.
Crude oil futures settled today's session $2.48 lower (-4.0%) at $58.94 per barrel as concerns around higher tariffs between the U.S. and China threaten the global growth outlook.
The major averages all hold losses of 1.5% or wider, and today's retreat wipes out the week-to-date gains of all but the consumer staples (+0.3% today, +0.6% WTD) and utilities (-0.1% today, +1.8% WTD) sectors.
S&P 500 falls 1.7% as Mosaic, Synopsys, and Block slide; PepsiCo gains on Wells Fargo target boost
10-Oct-25 14:30 ET
Dow -519.93 at 45838.28, Nasdaq -526.51 at 22498.14, S&P -112.82 at 6622.28
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.68%) is in second place on Friday afternoon, down about 112 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Mosaic (MOS 30.56, -2.88, -8.61%), Synopsys (SNPS 447.53, -36.88, -7.61%), and Block (XYZ 75.17, -5.68, -7.03%) pepper the bottom of the standings. MOS slips after announcing Q3 segment volumes followed by a downgrade to Sector Perform out of Scotiabank, SNPS falls after getting approval for its Optical Solutions Group and PowerArtist divestitures.
Meanwhile, PepsiCo (PEP 149.70, +4.99, +3.45%) is outperforming after Wells Fargo upped their target on the stock to $154 from $150 says profit debate remains key despite soft organic sales.
Gold tops $4,000 as safe-haven demand rises on geopolitical, fiscal jitters
10-Oct-25 14:00 ET
Dow -595.01 at 45763.20, Nasdaq -568.36 at 22456.29, S&P -122.92 at 6612.18
[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (-2.47%) is in last place on Friday afternoon, down about 569 points.
Gold futures settled $31.80 higher (+0.8%) at $4,000.40/oz, ultimately up +2.34% on the week, as investors sought safety amid global geopolitical tensions and U.S. fiscal uncertainty. The rally was further supported by renewed Fed rate-cut expectations, central bank buying, and a softer dollar.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down -0.4% to $99.03.
Applied Digital Soars to New Highs on Q1 Results; Bullish on Visibility and Long-Term Growth (APLD)
Applied Digital (APLD) is soaring to new highs today after reporting its Q1 (Aug) results last night. The AI data center infrastructure developer handily beat expectations on both the top and bottom line, with revenue rocketing 84.3% yr/yr (68% sequentially) to $64.21 mln. The stock continues to build on its impressive run from its April low, up over 1000%, as the bullish commentary from management seems to have satisfied high growth expectations.
- In addition to the underlying leases with CoreWeave (CRWV) at Polaris Forge 1, which total about $11 bln over 15 years, CRWV engaged to perform the first 100 MW fit-out.
- Management targets roughly $500 mln in annual NOI once PF1 is fully online.
- Also broke ground on new campus, Polaris Forge 2, with initial construction totaling 300 MW IT load and capacity to scale to 1 GW. First power is expected in late 2026 and full capacity by 2027.
- PF2 is expected to drive the next major NOI leg toward APLD's $1 bln run-rate goal within five years. The company is in advanced lease talks with an investment-grade hyperscaler for PF2 and negotiating with two more for new sites.
- Its investments are just beginning to generate returns, with the PF1 fit-out setting up lease revenue later this year. It contributed $26.3 mln in Q1 and is expected to ramp significantly next quarter.
- While power availability has been the key focus across the industry, APLD says its priority is shifting toward scaling, development, and construction, backed by its 4 GW active pipeline.
- As demand shifts from GPUs to AI-ready data centers, APLD believes it is well positioned to meet the growing infrastructure gap and help enable the roughly $350 bln in hyperscaler investments expected this year.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
This was an impressive start to FY26, underscored by expanding contracts, accelerating monetization, and a clear roadmap toward profitability. The $11 bln CoreWeave lease and PF2 build mark major visibility milestones, with management noting this is only the beginning. The company continues to execute well and maintain discipline on financing. Investors should monitor PF1 and PF2 construction timelines, project-finance progress, and APLD's ability to sustain its 12-14 month build cadence as it scales multiple campuses in parallel. The stock remains one to watch in the AI infrastructure buildout.
Levi Strauss Stock Slides Despite Strong Q3 as Q4 EPS Guidance Disappoints (LEVI)
Levi Strauss is trading sharply lower despite delivering strong Q3 (Aug) results, as investor optimism ahead of the report gave way to disappointment over downside Q4 (Nov) EPS guidance.
- LEVI posted broad-based Q3 strength across DTC (+9%), wholesale, and both domestic (+3%) and international markets (+9%). Asia stood out with double-digit growth in India, Japan, Korea, and Turkey.
- The company's DTC-first strategy continues to deliver, while the wholesale segment remains stable and growing.
- Women's business is up 12% YTD, helped by high-impact campaigns like REIIMAGINE with Beyoncé. The latest global campaign with Shaboozey aims to boost male engagement and brand authenticity.
- LEVI sees itself well-positioned for the holiday season, with the right product mix and marketing firepower.
- However, LEVI expects an 80 bps tariff-related headwind to gross margin in Q4, with a $0.03 impact on EPS.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
LEVI's Q3 was strong across nearly every dimension, but investor sentiment heading into the print was high following a bullish Q2 beat-and-raise and strong denim trends from peers like AEO. That raised the bar but the Q4 EPS guide fell short of consensus. With the stock trending nicely higher, we think downside Q4 guidance was a pretty big shock for investors. The company is executing well on its DTC pivot and marketing strategy, but the tariff cost uptick and cautious Q4 outlook take some shine off the story—at least near term.
Costco's comps shine again in September, fueled by traffic, ticket size, and digital sales (COST)
Costco (COST) reported another solid month of sales growth in September, underscoring the retailer’s continued momentum heading into the holiday season. Comparable sales rose +6.0% when excluding gasoline and foreign exchange impacts. While slightly below August’s +6.9% and July’s +7.0%, last September’s sales were boosted by roughly 2% in the U.S. and 1.5% worldwide due to hurricane-related buying and port strikes.
- Extended Executive hours and higher traffic/average spend supported sales.
- COST is seeing broad category strength. In Q4 (reported on September 25), fresh foods were up high-single digits, while standout non-foods included gold & jewelry, electronics, toys, gift cards, and men’s apparel.
- E-commerce surged +26.3% in September, driven by faster delivery, expanded online assortment, and improved digital integration.
- COST's strong September sales indicate that Amazon’s (AMZN) same-day delivery hasn’t impacted its market share yet.
- Strong momentum sets COST up well for the upcoming holiday season.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
COST’s September results reaffirm its position as one of the most reliable retail performers in a still-choppy consumer environment. While the month’s comps showed a mild sequential slowdown, the underlying trends -- strong traffic, healthy ticket growth, and robust e-commerce -- remain highly encouraging. The company’s blend of value, quality, and member loyalty continues to buffer it against macro and competitive pressures, including AMZN’s latest delivery push. With category strength broad-based and digital engagement accelerating, COST enters the holiday quarter with strong operating momentum and renewed pricing power.
PepsiCo moves higher on EPS beat and accelerating revenue growth; volumes still a watch point (PEP)
PepsiCo (PEP) is moving higher today after reporting its Q3 results this morning. The beverage and snack food giant beat EPS expectations, while reported revenue growth accelerated, increasing 2.6% yr/yr to $23.94 bln, which was in line with expectations. Organic revenues increased 1.3% compared to 2.1% in Q2.
- Revenue growth accelerated despite a 1% volume decline; PBNA delivered 2% organic growth with a 3% volume headwind from the Pack Water transition. Beverage volume grew excluding Pack Water.
- PFNA margin trends improved as cost cuts and tighter promotions gained traction; permissible snacks like Sun Chips, Simply, and Quaker rice cakes posted double-digit growth.
- International remained strong with 4% organic growth (18 straight quarters of mid-single-digit or better); International beverages led with 6% organic growth.
- Management noted away-from-home is growing about 2-3x than that of retail.
- Highlights included double-digit growth in Pepsi Zero Sugar, continued Mountain Dew strength, and strong momentum in Poppi and Propel.
- Margins expanded on pricing, mix, and productivity actions, including automation, logistics, and trade optimization, and expects to mitigate higher supply chain costs moving forward.
- Management called discussions with Elliott constructive, noting alignment on strategy and shared view that the stock is undervalued.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
PepsiCo's Q3 results showed resilience, with accelerating revenue and expanding margins despite ongoing volume pressure. Cost actions are gaining traction, and innovation in zero-sugar and functional beverages continues to perform well. Constructive engagement with Elliott and the addition of Walmart CFO Steve Schmitt should further strengthen PepsiCo's focus on efficiency and profitability. Overall, it was a solid quarter, encouraging in the longer-term, but with limited near-term upside as volume and input cost headwinds persist.
AZZ Misses Q2 Earnings but Reaffirms FY26 Guidance: A Warning Sign for Manufacturing Stocks? (AZZ)
AZZ Inc. (AZZ) came under pressure following a rare earnings miss for fiscal Q2 (Aug), its first in over two years. The company—known for its hot-dip galvanizing and coil coating services—offers early insights into the manufacturing sector ahead of peak earnings season. However, this report raises some concerns.
- Revenue rose just 2% yr/yr to $417.3 mln, well below expectations, while EPS also missed estimates—marking a sharp reversal from a strong $0.20 beat in Q1.
- Despite the shortfall, AZZ reaffirmed its FY26 EPS and revenue guidance, suggesting confidence in a stronger second half.
Segment performance was mixed:
- Metal Coatings (MC): Sales grew 10.8% yr/yr to $190 mln, driven by volume growth and solid infrastructure-related demand across construction, industrial, and electrical transmission markets. Adjusted EBITDA margin dipped 90 bps to 30.8% due to mix shift, but this segment was clearly the bright spot.
- Precoat Metals (PM): Sales declined 4% yr/yr to $227.3 mln as demand softened in construction, HVAC, and appliance markets. EBITDA margin also fell 90 bps to 20.2% on lower volume.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
This was a disappointing quarter for AZZ, especially following a strong Q1. The miss in both revenue and EPS makes us more cautious for manufacturing names as we head into the heart of Q3 earnings season. While the FY26 guidance reaffirm is a modest positive, the weakness in Precoat Metals and soft demand in key end markets suggest broader industrial headwinds. AZZ may be a canary in the coal mine—raising a yellow flag for the rest of the manufacturing space.
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