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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Yang who wrote (8794)	2/25/1998 4:41:00 PM
From: Linda Kaplan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 213185

They almost sold me a G3 this week, but I can't figure out if it's the right thing to buy. Is there an excellent Mac discussion area somewhere to chat about which models meet which needs? Linda

To: Eric Yang who wrote (8794)	2/25/1998 5:18:00 PM
From: rhet0ric	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213185

Eric, some more comments on your Q2 page. Analysts: You mention that analysts were way off in Q1--that's true historically as well. I compared EPS Surprises between AAPL, MSFT and DELL. It looks like this: AAPL MSFT DELL Jun96 +.50 +.01 +.07 Sep96 +.36 +.02 +.10 Dec96 -.21 +.06 +.09 Mar97 -.20 +.15 +.07 Jun97 +.17 +.01 +.05 Sep97 -.05 +.02 +.04 Dec97 -.02 +.03 +.05 The Dec97 AAPL EPS Surprise is the bogus one. I don't recall what the real figure should be. But you get the idea. Basically, analysts are completely clueless in predicting AAPL, and they screw up on both sides, positive and negative. Whether it's because AAPL has been very volatile, or they just don't follow it as closely as other companies such as DELL and MSFT, I don't know. (The funny thing about this is that my charts use bar graphs to show EPS, and when the bar goes off the graph they indicate it with a broken line. Until Sep97, ALL of AAPL's bars had a broken line). Margins I think AAPL's improved Q1 margins shouldn't be attributed so entirely to the G3s. I remember reading in several places that Steve has gone around and renegotiated a lot of OEM contracts, which would contribute to improved margins across the board. For instance, Hewlett-Packard supplies a lot of the innards for Apple's printers, and there was discussion that HP was so pissed off with Steve's negotiating stance that they considered dropping Apple; and, conversely, there was discussion that Apple was considering droppings its entire imaging line. Of course, neither happened, but it seems reasonable to guess that Steve's tough stance did endanger that OEM contract, and that he walked away with a deal that helped out the Q1 margins. rhet0ric