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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Serendipity who wrote (20315)	2/25/1998 5:17:00 PM
From: Ghassan I. Ghandour	Respond to of 42771

I only saw the kind of volume we had today on buyout rumors. Today's action looked like a big battle, and we won the round as we closed UP 1/4. For NOVL, a quarter up has been a rally since some time, now. And we did break a resistance as 8 and 7/8 has been for the last three months. In fact, today's support (8 7/8) was yesterday's resistance. We are in an up trend and however doesn't see that needs to take off his biased glasses. Indeed, tomorrow will tell us more, as will the day after tomorrow. With brainshare coming and the shareholder's meeting, and unless Asia's worry resurface again, we may see a short covering rally (I didn't say panic) and we may very well see the 12 to 13 that V.K. predicted on technical ground materialize. Go NOVL... Ghassan.

To: Serendipity who wrote (20315)	2/25/1998 6:40:00 PM
From: Don Earl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Hi Serendipity, From 11/26/97 you have resistance at 9 5/8. For confirmation of a reversal, that would have to break on volume. After that you have resistance again at 10 1/16, 10 1/2, 10 3/4 and 13. At every one of those points on the chart NOVL failed to break past the previous high. If Novell had reported 3-4 cents on revenue equal to or slightly better than last quarter, you probably would have seen the first 4 levels break before lunch. As it was, profit taking started right at the open. Take a look at a five year chart. That's one hell of a long down trend to break out of. It will take more than an upward move a few weeks old to reverse that kind of pattern. Novell HAS to produce increasing revenue for a break out. Until then it's a trading stock with current trend lines intact, not a growth stock. Cutting costs is fine, but it's still in the nature of a down sizing move in the face of consistently declining revenue. At the current rate next quarter will come in at around $235-$240 million. Until then I sincerely doubt you will see anything that even remotely resembles a reversal. The chart was set up with just about the prettiest double bottom you ever saw, but the company HAD to product revenue to make it work. There is something wrong with Novell at the executive level. The company is run by book keepers, techs, and folks that really don't care as long as they get a pay check. The kind of driving force of personality necessary to propel a company forward is absent. Maybe Eric Schmidt can break the inertia. So far he has just been forced into the same role as his predecessors. IMO he had the right idea when he was going to go for a major marketing push after Q2. He wasn't allowed to make the move. If he was the right man for the job he would have faced off with those against stepping up marketing and told them "I'm the CEO. You hired me to turn this thing around. Do it!". I really do believe that Schmidt wants to make it work, but he doesn't have what it takes to make the hard choices when his back is against the wall. Did you see the Rooters article on the NASDAQ site? They didn't even afford him the courtesy of spelling his name right. The company is still being run by committee, and a committee is the only know life form with 3 or more stomachs and no brain. If you plan to hold your stock through the next shareholders meeting and plan to vote those shares, I might suggest a Joe like campaign to: 1. Replace the BOD with as many past Novell CEOs as you can find. 2. Remove the poison pill that prevents a buy out. Good luck. Regards, Don