Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (206485)	10/18/2025 2:49:06 PM
From: #Breeze	6 Recommendations Recommended By DD™ Goldilocks longz misu_byk robert b furman and 1 more member Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206685

Harry Dent is also another one whose predications are sensational and don't have a poor track record. Here's Gemini AI findings: "Harry Dent's long-term predictions have a poor track record, with many of his sensationalized, doomsday forecasts failing to materialize as predicted. While he has correctly identified a few downturns, his timing has often been wrong and his extreme calls have been inaccurate. Notable misses and inaccuracies 1999: "The Roaring 2000s" Prediction: Dent predicted a roaring market with the Dow reaching 35,000. Reality: The decade was marked by the dot-com bubble crash, and the Dow peaked at 12,000. 2009: "The Great Depression Ahead" Prediction: He published a book forecasting a depression, but it came out just after the market bottomed in March 2009. Reality: The stock market began a massive, multi-year bull run that his book completely missed. 2017: Major crash within 3 years Prediction: He forecast a major crash in the stock market, economy, and real estate. In his book, Zero Hour, he predicted a crash that would dwarf the Great Recession. Reality: While a brief, sharp drop occurred in early 2020 due to the pandemic, the market went on to post significant gains in 2019 and 2020. 2021: "Crash of 45% to 80%" Prediction: He called for a 45% crash by June, which he later revised to an 80% drop by Thanksgiving. Reality: The market instead hit new highs that year. 2024: "Crash of a Lifetime" Prediction: He forecast a major market crash for 2024. Reality: As of early 2025, the market had posted significant gains in 2024, directly contradicting his prediction. What he got right Dent has correctly identified a few downturns, but his accuracy is often overstated and his timing has been off. Japan's 1989 collapse: He accurately predicted the bursting of Japan's asset bubble. 2000 dot-com bust: He correctly predicted the bursting of the dot-com bubble. 2006–2007 housing bust: He also foresaw the subprime mortgage meltdown and subsequent housing bust. Criticism of his methodology and motivations Critics point out several issues with Dent's approach and incentives. "Fear sells": His dire, attention-grabbing predictions are effective at selling books, newsletters, and other products, regardless of their accuracy. Flawed demographics-based theory: He relies heavily on a "spending wave" theory, which posits that consumer spending is driven by the number of people in their mid-40s. Critics argue this view is overly simplistic, and the 70% of the economy made up by consumer spending does not solely determine boom-and-bust cycles. Exaggeration and ambiguity: His books and commentary often use vague, hyperbolic language, and he has a habit of shifting his timelines or revising predictions that don't come true. Confirmation bias: He has been criticized for being a "perma-bear," consistently forecasting crashes and ignoring periods of sustained growth. Conclusion: While Harry Dent has made some correct general predictions about market downturns, his accuracy on specific timing and severity is poor. Most financial experts advise against following his advice, as his track record shows he has been wrong far more often than right. "