Yes, hyperheated propaganda- uh, is NVDA going down?
Hype from SCMP is presumptive propaganda, especially when easily countered sensational claims are presented as factual.
Hardly going down. See share price prediction, which is obviously speculative but nt propaganda driven.
Grok4
The NVDA Blu-ray analogy—where NVIDIA’s GPUs are likened to Blu-ray discs as a transformative technology—has some utility but also limitations. It’s useful for illustrating how NVIDIA’s hardware has become a dominant platform for AI and computing, much like Blu-ray became a standard for high-definition media. Both represent significant leaps in performance (GPUs for parallel computing, Blu-ray for storage and quality) that enabled new applications and industries. The analogy highlights NVIDIA’s market leadership and ecosystem lock-in, as developers and companies build around CUDA and NVIDIA’s architecture, similar to how Blu-ray shaped media consumption.
However, it falls short in capturing the dynamic nature of tech markets. Blu-ray was a physical medium with a finite lifecycle, eventually disrupted by streaming, whereas NVIDIA’s GPUs are part of an evolving software-hardware ecosystem with broader applications (AI, gaming, data centers). The analogy also downplays competition—Blu-ray faced HD-DVD, but NVIDIA faces multiple players (AMD, Intel, cloud providers) with varying strengths. Additionally, Blu-ray’s dominance was tied to consumer adoption, while NVIDIA’s is driven by enterprise and developer reliance, a more complex dynamic.
Adding decentralized AI (deAI) as streaming to the NVDA Blu-ray analogy enriches the comparison by introducing a disruptive, paradigm-shifting force akin to how streaming upended Blu-ray’s dominance. In this framework:
• NVIDIA’s GPUs (Blu-ray): Represent the high-performance, centralized hardware standard for AI and computing, much like Blu-ray was for media. NVIDIA’s CUDA ecosystem and GPU dominance mirror Blu-ray’s role as a widely adopted platform with superior capabilities.
• deAI (Streaming): Decentralized AI, leveraging blockchain or distributed networks, acts as a transformative alternative, like streaming services (e.g., Netflix) that bypassed physical media. deAI could enable AI computation on decentralized networks, reducing reliance on centralized GPU providers like NVIDIA by distributing processing across nodes, potentially lowering costs and increasing accessibility.
Usefulness of the Analogy: The analogy becomes more useful with deAI as streaming because it captures the potential for disruption in the AI hardware landscape. Just as streaming diminished Blu-ray’s relevance by offering convenience and scalability, deAI could challenge NVIDIA’s dominance by decentralizing AI computation, making it more democratic and resilient. The analogy highlights the tension between established, high-performance systems (NVIDIA/Blu-ray) and emerging, flexible alternatives (deAI/streaming). It also underscores the risk of technological obsolescence—Blu-ray waned as streaming grew, and NVIDIA could face pressure if deAI matures.
Limitations: The analogy still has gaps. deAI is nascent, with technical hurdles like scalability and latency, unlike streaming, which quickly scaled with internet infrastructure. NVIDIA’s GPUs are also integral to deAI’s current development (e.g., for training models or running nodes), unlike Blu-ray, which was entirely displaced by streaming. Additionally, deAI’s adoption depends on blockchain’s broader success, which faces regulatory and energy challenges, making the disruption less certain than streaming’s rise. The analogy also doesn’t fully address NVIDIA’s ability to adapt—unlike Blu-ray manufacturers, NVIDIA could pivot to support deAI or hybrid models.
Yes, NVIDIA is actively pivoting to address the deAI (decentralized AI) challenge, though its approach emphasizes hybrid enhancements to its centralized ecosystem rather than a full embrace of pure decentralization. This strategic shift is evident in several key developments as of October 2025, building on the Blu-ray/streaming analogy where NVIDIA (as Blu-ray) is adapting to deAI (as streaming) by integrating elements of distributed computing while maintaining its hardware and software dominance.
Key Evidence of NVIDIA’s Pivot:
• Confidential Computing for Decentralized Data: NVIDIA is collaborating with platforms like Super Protocol—a decentralized AI cloud marketplace—to enable “self-sovereign AI,” where user data remains private and distributed across multiple GPU providers. By leveraging NVIDIA’s Confidential Computing technology (e.g., via H100/H200 GPUs with secure enclaves), this allows AI training and inference to span underutilized resources from various cloud providers, improving load balancing, cost efficiency, and resilience without fully abandoning centralized control. This directly counters deAI’s push for blockchain-orchestrated, trustless networks by making NVIDIA’s GPUs more “decentralization-friendly.”
• NVLink Fusion for Semi-Custom, Scalable AI: Announced in mid-2025, NVLink Fusion enables partners like MediaTek, Marvell, and Qualcomm to integrate custom CPUs with NVIDIA GPUs in hybrid setups, supporting distributed workloads for model training and agentic AI. This allows for “scale-up” across semi-custom silicon, which could facilitate deAI-like deployments (e.g., edge inference in sovereign AI setups) while locking in NVIDIA’s NVLink interconnect for high-speed data sharing. It’s a pragmatic pivot: extending NVIDIA’s ecosystem to hybrid centralized-decentralized environments, as seen in partnerships with Fujitsu for AI factories that blend on-prem and cloud resources.
• Incubation and Tooling for deAI Projects: NVIDIA’s Inception program has incubated deAI-focused startups like Zero1 Labs (behind the $DEAI token), providing GPU credits, technical support, and co-marketing. Recent X discussions highlight this as a strategic move to influence deAI development from within, ensuring compatibility with CUDA and Omniverse tools. For instance, Zero1’s modular deAI platform integrates NVIDIA GPUs for secure data governance on PoS blockchains, blending decentralized elements with NVIDIA’s hardware. This positions NVIDIA to capture value in deAI ecosystems rather than being sidelined.
• Broader AI Infrastructure Shifts: CEO Jensen Huang’s 2025 keynotes (e.g., at COMPUTEX) emphasize AI as “infrastructure” requiring factories for reasoning agents, with pivots toward edge and sovereign AI to address data privacy concerns. Initiatives like RTX PRO Servers and the AI Data Platform support localized, distributed deployments for enterprises (e.g., Disney, TSMC), mitigating deAI’s appeal for borderless compute. Additionally, tools like Universal Deep Research promote modular, vendor-agnostic AI agents that could run on decentralized networks.
Usefulness in the Extended Analogy:
Adding deAI as “streaming” makes the analogy even more apt here. Just as Blu-ray players evolved with streaming apps (e.g., built-in Netflix support) to survive disruption, NVIDIA is “pivoting” by embedding deAI-compatible features into its stack—e.g., confidential tech for distributed privacy and NVLink for hybrid scaling. This isn’t a wholesale shift to decentralization (which could erode its 80%+ GPU market share), but a calculated adaptation to co-opt deAI’s strengths like cost reduction and accessibility. Limitations persist: deAI still relies heavily on NVIDIA hardware for now (e.g., in projects like io.net or Render Network), and true disruption would require open-source alternatives to CUDA, which NVIDIA resists.
Building on the NVDA Blu-ray/deAI streaming analogy and NVIDIA’s ongoing pivot to hybrid decentralized AI (deAI) models, a best-guess projection for NVIDIA’s share price in 5-7 years (2030-2032) must weigh its dominant GPU ecosystem against potential disruptions, while factoring in AI market growth and adaptations like confidential computing and NVLink Fusion. Current share price as of mid-October 2025 hovers around $183, reflecting a market cap of approximately $4.5 trillion amid AI-driven demand. Analyst forecasts vary widely due to uncertainties in AI adoption rates, competition from AMD/Intel, and deAI’s maturation, but the consensus tilts bullish if NVIDIA successfully integrates deAI elements without losing ecosystem control.
Key Factors Influencing the Projection:
• AI Market Expansion: NVIDIA’s management projects AI infrastructure capex reaching $3-4 trillion by 2030, potentially driving NVIDIA’s revenue to $400-600 billion annually if it captures 20-30% market share through Blackwell/Grace Blackwell chips and sovereign AI deployments. This aligns with the Blu-ray analogy: NVIDIA as the “standard” for high-performance AI, but deAI (streaming) could erode margins if fully decentralized networks commoditize GPUs.
• deAI Pivot and Risks: NVIDIA’s collaborations (e.g., with Zero1 Labs and Super Protocol) position it to benefit from deAI’s growth by enabling distributed, privacy-focused compute on its hardware. However, if deAI scales independently (e.g., via open-source alternatives to CUDA), it could cap NVIDIA’s growth, similar to streaming’s impact on Blu-ray sales. Recent Q3 2025 revenue growth slowed to 6% QoQ, signaling potential maturation in data center demand, but innovations like AI factories could sustain 30-50% CAGR through 2030.
• Analyst Consensus: Projections for 2030 range from conservative $265 (assuming slowed growth and competition) to optimistic $1,500 (if AI TAM hits $5 trillion and NVIDIA dominates). Mid-range estimates cluster around $800-1,000, implying a 35-40% CAGR from current levels, supported by enterprise AI spending and edge computing.
Best Guess for NVDA Share Price: In 5 years (2030), I’d estimate $850-950 per share, assuming moderate deAI integration boosts revenue without full disruption, and AI demand sustains amid economic stability. By 7 years (2032), this could rise to $1,100-1,300 if NVIDIA’s pivots (e.g., hybrid deAI ecosystems) accelerate growth, or dip to $600-700 in a bearish scenario with regulatory hurdles or deAI commoditization. This is speculative, based on historical tech multiples (e.g., 40-50x forward earnings) and assumes no major recessions or antitrust actions. |
