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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (95998)	10/19/2025 8:30:55 PM
From: last2no2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 96672

It might be the roll of the contract. Natural Gas The front month US natural gas futures contract (NOV25) rose nearly 3% to above $3/MMBtu on Friday but were still set for a second straight weekly loss, near a three-week low of $2.927 hit in the previous session. > Prices were pressured by mild weather forecasts and ample storage, despite a drop in output and near-record LNG exports. > Data from LSEG showed average gas production in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.6 bcfd in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record 108 bcfd in August. > Earlier high output allowed companies to build inventories, leaving storage levels about 4% above the five-year average. < Rising LNG exports and one good cold wave will wipe out the storage surplus. In December 2024, during the four weeks that ended December 27th draws from storage exceed the 5-year average by 102 Bcf. During this coming December LNG exports will be ~4 Bcfpd higher than last December. > Forecasters expect warmer-than-normal weather through early November, which will cut heating demand more than it boosts cooling needs, keeping overall gas use low. > Meanwhile, gas flows to the eight major US LNG export terminals hit 16.4 bcfd, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and close to a record, highlighting strong global demand even as domestic consumption softens. On October 30th the DEC25 contract will be the front month. It closed at $3.72 today and JAN26 closed at $4.04. Bottomline:There is a lot of "Political Noise" putting pressure on the price of oil. I have no idea when the noise will stop, but if WTI does go down to $50/bbl the upstream companies will slam the breaks on their drilling programs and the seeds of the next oil price rebound will sprout and grow quickly. Load up on the Gassers. There is a good chance we see $4.00/MMBtu in December. Winter NGas price firming up today. NYMEX Futures contracts. DEC25 + $0.106 to close at $3.741 JAN26 + $0.107 to close at $4.054 FEB26 + $0.101 to close at $3.868 MAR26 + $0.089 to close at $3.555 The winter of 2024/2025 was considered a mild winter. Yet from 11/30/2024 through 3/7/2025 the draws from storage were 481 Bcf higher than the 5-year average. With LNG exports much higher this year, if we have about the same winter draws you will see the entire 2026 strip go over $4.00. Dan Steffens Energy Prospectus Group