Jihadist Attacks Spread Across Africa's Sahel Region
By Valentin RAKOVSKY with AFP bureaux in Abidjan and Dakar
Oct 20, 2025, 1:57 am EDT
The various factions affiliated with Al-Qaeda -- notably the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) -- and the Islamic State (IS) group are now striking across almost all of Mali and Burkina Faso, from western Niger and Nigeria to the Senegal border.
This is according to an AFP study of six years of operations documented by ACLED, an independent organisation that records victims of conflicts around the world.
"The security crisis in the Sahel is complex and there are no quick fixes," warned Charlie Werb, an analyst with Aldebaran Threat Consultants.
The number of attacks in the region exploded from 1,900 in 2019 -- mainly concentrated on the border between Mali and Burkina Faso -- to more than 5,500 in 2024.
There have already been 3,800 attacks recorded in 2025, until October 10, bringing the total to 28,715 in almost six years.
Al-Qaeda's expansion into western Mali and southern Burkina Faso, and the Islamic State's into western Niger and Nigeria, means jihadist groups now operate in an area measuring more than one million square kilometres (386,000 square miles), twice the size of Spain.
There is a second hotbed of violence near Lake Chad in eastern Nigeria, where Islamic State-affiliated Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province group (ISWAP) operate.
The UN recently estimated that Al-Qaeda and Islamic State operate between 7,000 and 9,000 jihadists and that ISWAP operates between 8,000 and 12,000.
Each group exploits social and ethnic tensions to recruit members in the affected regions, which are among the poorest in the world.
They also use various means to finance themselves, such as kidnapping for ransom, cattle rustling and collecting an "Islamic tax".
"Some are recruited and paid for one-off operations, others for the promise of keeping the spoils of attacks, other than weapons," Aly Tounkara, executive director of the Centre for Security and Strategic Studies in the Sahel, told AFP.
Others are "indoctrinated" through religion, he added.
Groups affiliated with Islamic State and Al-Qaeda, armed largely with weapons looted during attacks, are each responsible for around half of the approximately 76,900 victims since 2019, including many from their own ranks.
Most deaths occurred during clashes with regular armies, while nearly 16,000 died in attacks against civilians.
More than 20,000 people have been killed in Nigeria, but Mali and Burkina Faso have borne the brunt, accounting for 56 percent of the region's victims.
Ruled by military juntas, both countries have ended the presence of Western troops, particularly French forces, over recent years.
The strategies of Mali and Burkina Faso are focused "on military force" but have yielded results that are "at best, limited and at worst, counterproductive", said Werb.
They have allowed jihadist influence to expand, notably due to a failure to "address the socio-economic causes of insecurity", he added.
The mapping of attacks shows that JNIM, the Sahelian branch of Al-Qaeda, is seeking to isolate the capitals of both countries by increasing operations on surrounding roads.
Since 2019, it has expanded its attacks from northern Burkina Faso and now encircles Ouagadougou, threatening links with neighbouring Ivory Coast, Togo and Mali.
Around the Malian capital Bamako, far from the conflict four years ago, jihadists have carried out 130 attacks on the road network in 2025, 10 times more than in 2021.
JNIM is also advancing westward and the Malian region of Kayes has suffered more attacks this year than in the previous five.
This region, which borders Senegal, Mauritania and Guinea, is crucial for the delivery of food and fuel to Mali, which has no direct access to the sea.
Since September, JNIM has targeted tanker trucks coming from the west to supply the Malian capital.
The country's fuel reserves are running dry after a month-long blockade, the National Office of Petroleum Products reported last week.
"Kayes is a strategic economic corridor for Mali, connecting it directly to the port of Dakar," said Bakary Sambe, director of the Timbuktu Institute think tank.
"Targeting Kayes is a way of undermining the current regime's ability to adequately supply Bamako," he added.
Sambe advised neighbouring Senegal and Mauritania "to fully assess the threat".
Coordinated attacks on July 1 targeted seven western towns, including Kayes and several cities along the highways connecting Bamako to neighbouring countries.
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The Barron's news department was not involved in the creation of the content above. This article was produced by AFP. For more information go to AFP.com.
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