Target has historically seen a significant sales boost during the November-December period, with total sales growing about 2.8% year-over-year in early 2025. The holiday quarter generally contributes a meaningful portion of the company’s annual revenue, with strong performance in discretionary categories like apparel, toys, beauty, and frequent purchase items. Despite the challenges Target faces in 2025, including sales declines and customer backlash, the holiday season typically acts as an important opportunity to recoup losses and stimulate traffic and sales growth.

Target is proactively preparing for the 2025 holidays with expanded product offerings—20,000 new products introduced, double last year’s count—and exclusive collaborations with popular brands such as Taylor Swift, Woolrich, and Champion. They are also enhancing the shopping experience through extended next-day delivery services in major metro areas and launching significant promotional events like the Target Circle Week with deep discounts and exclusive perks that aim to capture early and sustained holiday shopping momentum.

For a long-term, value-oriented investor, this creates a nuanced opportunity. The holiday sales period may provide a moderate but not dramatic uplift in revenues, helping to stabilize Target’s performance in what remains a challenging retail environment. The new CEO’s restructuring efforts, exclusive product launches, and improved delivery capabilities could contribute to gradual recovery and increased market confidence.

The credit facility Target secured offers liquidity to weather short-term volatility. However, the current market sentiment and company fundamentals suggest that the stock may still experience some pressure in the near term, with a rebound more likely as the company proves its turnaround success through the holidays and into 2026.

Therefore, a value investor looking for an early strategic entry might consider the near-term weakness and recent layoffs as part of necessary repositioning, with the holiday sales acting as a catalyst for stabilization. The best opportunity could be to start scaling in during or just after the holiday season when clearer signs of earnings and operational improvements emerge. Patience is advised given the company’s residual risks and competitive pressures, but the holiday period does provide a potential turning point for Target's revenue trajectory and investor confidence.