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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (78323)	10/26/2025 2:08:05 PM
From: Madharry	1 Recommendation Recommended By sjemmeri Respond to of 78764

I am learning quite a bit from listening the Steve Eisman podcasts, much appreciated, according to various guests., hedge funds are now paying for and getting access to almost real time date on credit card transactions , that puts the rest of us at a disadvantage. they are also managing their risk exposured by having groups of pods each of whom may manage say $500mm. but if they experience a decline of 3-5% , they may be told that they now have only $250 mmm to manage which forces them immediately liquidate half of their portfolio that is one of the reason for seemingly over reactions in the market to unfavorable news or results. Eisman mentioned that unemployment among younger people( not sure exactly what that means ) is now 11%. and AI is already impacting advertising and media jobs, I suspect it may gut bank jobs and financial services as well. It seem pretty clear that almost all the growth in the economy is coming from ai spend and increases in stock market portfolios. Another of the guests on the show made the comment that the Trump policies will reduce the inflow of immigrants by 2 million and foreign student by at least 250k. that will further reduce growth. OT the Target I go to and the Costco are less than a mile from each other and the difference could not be more striking. You walk into Target and you are sure there is a recession, parking lot less than half full , few shoppers, at best one register being manned, few employees in sight, You go to costco and there is alway difficulty finding a parking place. lots of shoppers lots of employees.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (78323)	11/24/2025 4:59:46 PM
From: Sean Collett	1 Recommendation Recommended By E_K_S Respond to of 78764

RE: DECK They have been on my radar for a while and the price keeps dropping. Mr. Market seems to not like them very much. EBITDA has compounded at 34.89% since 2020 going to $1,248.45M. If they can maintain even a 12% compound growth in their earnings potential in five years that puts EBITDA around $2,200.19M. Current EV/EBITDA is at the low end for this retailer at ~8.8x and if they get back to a normalized level of 13x (low end in my view for a premium brand like this) then I have a share price around $127.71-139.75 with a 10-12% discount rate. This is a 53.63%-68.11% increase from where the price is today at around $83.13. This also assumes they keep up with the repurchase program and shares decline 2% a year in that time. Company has strong brands with UGG, Hoka, TEVA, and AHNU. The fear is weak consumers and tariffs are going to eat the brand, but they keep holding up. They're sitting on $1,414.48M in cash and equivalents and more impressive NO DEBT. Leases makeup the majority of their liabilities but there's no bonds, term loans, or banks involved here. FCF last year was $958.35M with core cash flow at $996.55M. Low CAPEX business with CAPEX/Sales being 1.5% in 2020 and 1.7% in 2024. D&A is only 5.56% of EBITDA leaving 94.44% for EBIT. They've been buying back stock for multiple years with $297M in 2023, $415M in 2024, and $567M in 2025. SBC is only 0.8% of sales in 2024 and was 0.7% of sales in 2020. I think the equity is undervalued today, but I don't see a clean entry for me just yet. Technicals (taboo!) are not setup for a clean entry and the consumer space may not see a proper valuation for a bit given the sentiment at the moment. I will try and wait for my price to appear and then make an entry. Happy investing, Sean