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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Senior who wrote (78329)10/25/2025 11:36:01 AM
From: FIFO_kid21 Recommendation

Recommended By
Spekulatius

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78450
 
I also have a long position in KSPI but the position is still conservative. I can say with regard to myself of all jurisdictions Kazakhstan has been the most generous to me over the years.

My concerns here pertains to the recent devils advocate seeking alpha article indicating there are banking regulation risks in place which is potentially going to impact it negatively and the jury is out if they can duplicate their success in Turkey with its HEPS investment. So far it looks like they overpaid for it.

I can say looking at all of the past financial metrics relative to growth the stock is dirt cheap hence why I made the initial investment.



To: Paul Senior who wrote (78329)10/25/2025 12:06:13 PM
From: OlafB  Respond to of 78450
 
For me, main purpose of research will be finding, analyzing and filtering investment opportunities

I won't write it to become member of VIC or any other forum.

It just so happened that after my exams i have 2-weeks window with time to spare and therefore i started to look into individual equities

Writing a complete and structured report about business, with intention to invest, is simply a way to organize thoughts, thesis, numbers and then, if the result is not a complete garbage, get an objective criticism

Becoming a member and possibly getting 5k on top of it is just bonus from my perspective

That said, about KASP and Kaz:


Main thesis is similar to what Buffet said about AmEx in his partnership years: "Through legal scandal, business became undervalued relative to it's cash-flows" *not precise wording of course

Stock took a beating due circumstances described in report, most of which aren't related to business nor management.

About your dividend and apparent disappointment ;) - Turkey is more competitive however larger(87m ppl) than Kaz(21m). Both countries have young and growing population. Unlike developed markets that went through painful phase of trial and error with digitalization, EM can and do copy and paste already tested solutions with improvements guided by management(if they are smart and lucky enough). Kaspi was pretty good at this so far, becoming a partial monopoly without issues with government(which used to hold a stake in enterprise)

*They plan to invest additional 300m into HEPS/Rabobank

Question about dividends for sure ll be asked during upcoming Q3, so i will keep you updated on that

% of portfolio:
I was born and raised in Eastern Europe(immigrated to Canada few years ago when i turned 17), fluent in Russian and familiar with folks from Kazakhstan. Your assumption about oil/gas/uranium country is right, however with years more and more GDP growth is coming from services rather than natural resources. I hold concentrated portfolio therefore 3-5% new position in something that I am more confident than usual will do

Bottom-up number - i just didn't want to write each metric related to user acquisition, tbh i was too lazy and it wouldn't provide much analytical value. If anyone was interested in precise % they could open a presentation and spare me

Finn



To: Paul Senior who wrote (78329)10/25/2025 12:13:33 PM
From: E_K_S  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78450
 
I do not use dcf, which many do

I use DCF valuation metric for those companies where I have a fairly reliable way/method/history of estimating their future cash flows over 5 years.

The sectors where this seems to work the best are those companies that have long term sales/service contracts, delivery contracts for oil/NG, real estate leases so I focus on Non-MLP midstream companies; REITs w/ 10-to-15 year lease income; and/or those w/ predictable long term FCF.

Here is a list my AI came up with and I own quite a few of these AND probably s/d look into the others I have no position in:

These I own:

1) Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI)
2) Enbridge Inc (ENB)
3) Williams Companies (WMB)
4) TC Energy Corp (TRP)
5) Northern Oil and Gas (NOG)
6) Crown Castle Inc (CCI)

Do not Own

1) American Tower Corp (AMT)
2) Equinix Inc (EQIX)
3) Digital Realty Trust (DLR)
4) Nextera Energy (NEE)

I am sure there are many other companies that fit this type of valuation analysis based on long term lease/royalty and/or delivery contracts.

Nextera Energy (NEE) looks interesting but would want this lower at/below $70/share. Totally missed this at $70/share last month (9/19/2025) now +20% on a break out.

NextEra Energy Inc. is a public utility holding company engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electric energy. The company has both regulated and non-regulated energy-related products and services, with operations in the U.S. and Canada. NextEra Energy's primary subsidiaries are Florida Power & Light Company (FPL), Gulf Power Company and NextEra Energy Resources LLC (NEER). NextEra Energy Capital Holdings, Inc. (NEECH) is a wholly owned subsidiary of NextEra, which owns and provides funds for NEER and other operating subsidiaries apart from FPL and its subsidiaries. In 2014, NextEra Energy formed NextEra Energy Partners, LP' to own, manage and acquire contracted clean energy projects.NextEra Energy produces a large volume of electricity from wind and solar energy. The company, through its subsidiaries, is advocating higher usage of clean fuel sources to generate electricity and aiming to reduce total carbon emissions by 67% within 2025 from 2005 base.