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To: E_K_S who wrote (67198)10/25/2025 11:26:26 PM
From: Johnny Canuck  Respond to of 67640
 
I will look at them,though the explaination of how their technology saves power makes no sense.

At best the power savings should be marginal.

I am still trying to catch up on news and charts. I am just finishing off a major project at work.



To: E_K_S who wrote (67198)10/27/2025 2:57:03 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Respond to of 67640
 
From GROK:

Chain of Thought for DCF Valuation of GSIT To estimate the DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) value for GSI Technology, Inc. (GSIT), I followed a standard two-stage DCF model: projecting explicit free cash flows (FCF) for 5 years, calculating a terminal value, discounting everything back to present value using the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), and dividing by shares outstanding to get a per-share equity value. This approach accounts for the company's current unprofitability but incorporates optimistic growth assumptions based on recent performance (e.g., 35% YoY revenue growth in Q1 FY2026 driven by AI/SRAM demand) and market momentum (stock up ~150% over the past year).

Step 1: Gather Key Inputs from Financial Data
  • Recent Financials (FY2025 ended June 30, 2025): Revenue = $20.52M, Net Loss = -$10.64M, FCF = -$13.02M (Operating Cash Flow -$12.98M minus Capex -$0.05M). TTM Revenue = $22.13M.
  • Q1 FY2026 (ended Sep 30, 2025): Revenue = $6.3M (up 35% YoY), indicating accelerating demand for AI-associative processing units (APUs).
  • Shares Outstanding: 29.09M (diluted average).
  • WACC: 7.1% (cost of equity 9.3%, low debt impact). Beta = 1.19.
  • Current Stock Price: ~$9.41 (as of Oct 24, 2025 close).
GSIT currently has negative FCF due to R&D investments in AI tech, so projections assume a turnaround with improving margins as revenue scales.

Step 2: Project Future FCF (5-Year Explicit Period: FY2026–2030) I assumed aggressive but plausible growth based on GSIT's pivot to high-margin AI/SRAM products (e.g., recent Cornell validation driving 133% stock surge) and industry tailwinds in semiconductors. Revenue growth tapers from 50% (reflecting Q1 momentum and "major breakout" expectations) to 15%. FCF margins start negative (investing phase) and improve to 15% by FY2030 as operating leverage kicks in (current gross margins ~58%).



Fiscal YearProjected Revenue ($M)Assumed FCF MarginProjected FCF ($M)
202630.8 (50% growth)-6.5%-2.0
202743.1 (40% growth)7%3.0
202856.0 (30% growth)14%8.0
202967.2 (20% growth)18%12.0
203077.3 (15% growth)21%16.0


Step 3: Calculate Terminal Value and Discount
  • Terminal FCF (FY2031) = $16.0M × (1 + 3% perpetual growth) = $16.48M.
  • Terminal Value (at end of FY2030) = $16.48M / (7.1% WACC - 3% growth) = $402M.
  • Discount all FCFs and TV back to present using WACC = 7.1%.
Step 4: Compute Present Values Using numerical computation:

  • PV of Explicit FCFs (Years 1–5): -$1.87M + $2.62M + $6.51M + $9.12M + $11.35M = $27.73M.
  • PV of Terminal Value: $285.25M.
  • Enterprise Value (EV) = $27.73M + $285.25M = $312.99M.
  • Equity Value (no significant net debt) = $312.99M.
  • Per-Share DCF Value = $312.99M / 29.09M shares = $10.76.
Step 5: Sensitivity and Comparison
  • This implies GSIT is fairly valued at current prices (~$9.41), with ~14% upside. If growth is higher (e.g., 60% in FY2026 from APU adoption), value could reach $13–15 (aligning with one model). Conservative flat revenue (per some forecasts) yields ~$5/share.
  • Other Models: GuruFocus Projected FCF = -$3.69 (uses historical negative avg FCF); Community estimates $0.84–$0.99 (bearish on profitability).
Final DCF Stock Price Estimate: $10.76. This is sensitive to growth realization—monitor Q2 FY2026 earnings on Oct 30 for updates.



To: E_K_S who wrote (67198)10/27/2025 2:58:58 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Respond to of 67640
 
Revenue and EPS Trends for GSI Technology (GSIT) GSI Technology's fiscal year ends on June 30. Below is a summary of annual revenue (in millions of USD) and diluted EPS (in USD) for the last 5 fiscal years (FY2021–FY2025), based on historical financial data. The trends show revenue peaking in FY2022 before a consistent decline amid challenging semiconductor market conditions, while EPS reflects ongoing losses that have narrowed overall, with a notable improvement in FY2025 due to cost controls and gross margin expansion to ~49%.



Fiscal YearRevenue ($M)YoY Revenue GrowthDiluted EPS ($)
2021 (ended 6/30/2021)27.73--0.91
2022 (ended 6/30/2022)33.38+20.4%-0.67
2023 (ended 6/30/2023)29.69-11.1%-0.65
2024 (ended 6/30/2024)21.77-26.7%-0.80
2025 (ended 6/30/2025)20.52-5.7%-0.42


Key Trends:

  • Revenue: Grew strongly in FY2022 driven by demand for SRAM products, but has since trended downward (~38% decline from peak) due to inventory corrections and softer rad-hard markets. TTM revenue as of Q1 FY2026 shows slight recovery to $22.13M.
  • EPS: Losses have fluctuated but trended toward improvement (from -$0.91 to -$0.42), reflecting R&D efficiencies and higher gross margins in recent years, despite revenue pressure. The company remains unprofitable but is reducing losses at ~6.9% annually over 5 years.


15 web pages



To: E_K_S who wrote (67198)10/27/2025 3:01:07 AM
From: Johnny Canuck1 Recommendation

Recommended By
E_K_S

  Respond to of 67640
 
Chain of Thought for GSIT EPS Break-Even Projection To determine when GSI Technology (GSIT) is projected to achieve break-even EPS (i.e., diluted EPS = $0.00), I analyzed available data, including historical trends, recent quarterly results, company guidance, and limited analyst input. GSIT has no robust consensus EPS forecasts due to sparse analyst coverage (4 analysts total, but 0 providing full-year earnings inputs per Simply Wall St). MarketWatch shows a lone FY2026 estimate of -$0.61 (likely outdated, as Q1 actual was better at -$0.08), with no FY2027 data. Thus, I built a bottom-up projection using a simplified income statement model, calibrated to the aggressive growth assumptions from the prior DCF analysis (50% revenue growth in FY2026 driven by AI/APU demand) and historical margins/expenses. This assumes operating leverage from scaling revenue while R&D investments taper relatively.

Step 1: Review Historical and Recent EPS Trends
  • FY2021–FY2025 EPS: Trended from -$0.91 to -$0.42, showing narrowing losses (53% improvement over 5 years) via cost controls and gross margin expansion (from ~40% to 49%).
  • Q1 FY2026 (ended Sep 30, 2025): Actual EPS -$0.08 (vs. FY2025 Q1 -$0.15), on revenue of $6.3M (up 35% YoY) and gross margin 58.1%. Net loss $2.2M, driven by high OpEx ($5.8M: R&D $3.1M, SG&A $2.7M).
  • Implication: Losses are shrinking, but R&D for AI products (e.g., Gemini-II APU) keeps EPS negative short-term.
Step 2: Incorporate Company Guidance and Market Context
  • Q2 FY2026 Guidance (ended Dec 31, 2025): Revenue $5.9M–$6.7M (midpoint $6.3M, flat QoQ), gross margin 56%–58% (midpoint 57%). No full-year guidance, but commentary highlights AI tailwinds (e.g., edge LLM potential in drones/satellites) and production-ready Gemini-II, suggesting H2 acceleration.
  • No explicit profitability timeline, but management focuses on "innovation and market expansion" amid 150%+ YTD stock gains from AI validation (e.g., Cornell benchmarks).
  • External Context: Semiconductor peers project profitability amid AI boom; GSIT's pivot supports 30–50% near-term growth per DCF inputs.
Step 3: Project Income Statement and EPS (FY2026–FY2028) I modeled quarterly-to-annual roll-up, assuming:

  • Revenue: FY2026 +50% to $30.8M (H1 ~$12.6M per actual/guidance; H2 ramps to $18.2M via 20–30% QoQ growth from APU orders).
  • Gross Margin: 57% average (stable from Q1/Q2 guidance, improving slightly on mix shift to high-margin AI SRAM).
  • OpEx: FY2026 $23.2M (flat QoQ at $5.8M, R&D-heavy); grows 5% annually thereafter as % of revenue declines (historical trend: OpEx/revenue fell from 75% in FY2021 to 65% in FY2025).
  • Other: Negligible interest/tax impact; shares outstanding 29.09M (diluted).
  • Net Income ˜ Operating Income (low capex/debt).


Fiscal YearProjected Revenue ($M)Gross Profit ($M)OpEx ($M)Net Income ($M)Diluted EPS ($)
202630.817.6 (57%)23.2-5.6-0.19
202743.1 (+40%)25.9 (60%)24.41.5+0.05
202856.0 (+30%)35.6 (64%)25.610.0+0.34


  • Calculations:
    • FY2026: Gross $17.6M – OpEx $23.2M = -$5.6M operating loss ? EPS -$0.19 (better than MarketWatch's -$0.61, reflecting Q1 beat and growth momentum).
    • FY2027: Gross $25.9M – OpEx $24.4M = +$1.5M ? EPS +$0.05 (break-even achieved).
  • Sensitivity: If revenue growth is 30% in FY2027 (conservative), EPS ~-$0.08 (delayed to FY2028). Bull case (60% growth on APU adoption) yields +$0.15 in FY2027.
Step 4: Validate and Risks
  • Alignment with DCF: Matches prior FCF turnaround in FY2027 (7% margin implies ~5–7% net margin post-D&A adjustments).
  • Risks: Delayed AI revenue (e.g., if supply chain issues persist) could push break-even to FY2028; conversely, Q2 earnings (Oct 30, 2025) could confirm upside if revenue beats guidance.
  • Conclusion: GSIT is projected to reach break-even EPS in FY2027 (year ending June 30, 2027), driven by revenue scaling to $43M+ and OpEx leverage. Monitor Q2 results for confirmation.
Projected Break-Even Year: FY2027.



To: E_K_S who wrote (67198)10/27/2025 3:05:27 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Respond to of 67640
 
Johnny Caution, this stock only did $30 mil in revenue. It does not raise confidence they have the capacity to make actual chips at scale. It sounds more like a licensing play than a actual chip company -fabless or not. That means NVDA, AMD, AGO, GOOGL, AMZN, IBM or META has to license it technology.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Drivers Behind GSIT's Projected Break-Even in FY2027 GSI Technology (GSIT) has endured years of losses (e.g., EPS from -$0.91 in FY2021 to -$0.42 in FY2025) due to revenue declines in legacy SRAM markets and heavy R&D spending on AI innovations. However, my bottom-up projection—based on accelerating AI demand and operational leverage—anticipates break-even diluted EPS (~$0.05) in FY2027 (ending June 30, 2027), with revenue reaching ~$43M (up 40% YoY). This turnaround hinges on a pivot to high-margin AI products, recent validations, and disciplined costs. Below, I outline the primary drivers, supported by recent developments as of October 27, 2025.

Key Drivers

DriverDescriptionImpact on Profitability
AI SRAM and APU Demand SurgeGSIT's SRAM chips are gaining traction in AI workloads (e.g., generative AI training), with three straight quarters of SRAM sales growth. Partnerships like KYEC and Cadence Design Systems are fueling orders, while the Associative Processing Unit (APU) targets edge AI for drones and satellites. Q1 FY2026 revenue hit $6.3M (up 35% YoY), signaling momentum.Drives 40–50% revenue growth in FY2026–2027, scaling from $30.8M to $43.1M and overwhelming fixed costs for positive net income.
Gemini-II APU BreakthroughThe production-ready Gemini-II chip (shipped for proof-of-concept to a defense contractor) supports YOLO vision algorithms and large LLMs with GPU-level performance but far lower energy use. This positions GSIT in high-margin defense/edge computing (19.1% of Q1 shipments).Enables premium pricing and recurring revenue; software investments accelerate customer adoption, boosting gross margins to 60%+ by FY2027.
Cornell Validation CatalystA October 20, 2025, Cornell University study confirmed the APU matches NVIDIA GPU performance using significantly less energy, sparking a 130–200% stock surge and industry buzz as a "disruptor" in efficient AI hardware.Enhances credibility, unlocking orders and partnerships; recent $50M capital raise supports scaling production for commercial viability.
Gross Margin ExpansionShift to AI/APU mix lifts margins from 49% (FY2025) to 57–60% (FY2026 guidance), with Q1 FY2026 at 58.1%.Converts revenue growth into profits: Projected gross profit rises from $17.6M (FY2026) to $25.9M (FY2027), covering OpEx.
OpEx Leverage and Financial StabilityOpEx held flat at ~$23M in FY2026 (R&D-focused), growing only 5% annually thereafter, while revenue scales. $22.7M cash and $37.4M equity provide runway for R&D without dilution risks.Reduces OpEx/revenue ratio from 75% (historical) to ~57% by FY2027, flipping operating losses ($-5.6M in FY2026) to gains ($1.5M in FY2027).


These factors align with semiconductor AI tailwinds, where peers are capitalizing on efficiency demands. Absent robust analyst forecasts (only 4 analysts, no consensus EPS/revenue estimates for 2026–2027 due to limited coverage), this projection assumes H2 FY2026 acceleration post-Q2 earnings (October 30, 2025).

Caveats: Risks include production scaling delays, supply chain issues, or hype fade (e.g., one analysis calls the stock overvalued at $4.67 target). If growth moderates to 20–30%, break-even could slip to FY2028. Monitor upcoming results for validation.