Market Snapshot
| Dow | 47521.91 | -109.88 | (-0.23%) | | Nasdaq | 23581.17 | -377.33 | (-1.57%) | | SP 500 | 6822.33 | -68.25 | (-0.99%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 941 | Dec 1795 | Vol 1.26 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 1577 | Dec 3106 | Vol 10.69 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Financials, Health Care, Real Estate |
| | Weak: Communication Services, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, Industrials, Energy, Utilities |
Moving the Market
Weakness in mega-cap names after Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft's (MSFT) earnings reports
Broader market mixed, large slate of earnings reports driving some notable price action moves
Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) set to report earnings after the close
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Record-high rally halted as mega-caps pull back
30-Oct-25 16:30 ET
Dow -109.88 at 47521.91, Nasdaq -377.33 at 23581.17, S&P -68.25 at 6822.33
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market's mega-cap rally finally stalled today, sending the S&P 500 (-1.0%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.6%), and DJIA (-0.2%) lower and snapping this week's perfect streak of fresh record highs.
Meta Platforms (META 666.47, -85.20, -11.33%) was the focal point of weakness after its earnings report yesterday, in which it comfortably bested expectations but saw a substantial $15.9 billion non-cash income tax charge weigh on GAAP EPS and the stock post-earnings.
Perhaps more importantly, the company raised its FY25 spending plans and warned of even heftier AI spending next year, prompting concerns around the profitability, or more specifically, the timeline to profitability of massive AI expenditure.
That same sentiment did not seem to weigh on Alphabet (GOOG 281.90, +6.73, +2.45%), which traded higher after crushing Q3 earnings expectations.
The company also raised its FY25 capex guidance and expectations for even higher spending in 2026. Investors seemed less worried by Alphabet's spending spree, as Google Cloud revenue jumped 34% to $15.2 billion, with backlog up 46% to $155 billion as AI services drove growth. Management noted more billion-dollar deals in the first nine months of 2025 than the previous two years combined.
Torn between Meta's weakness and Alphabet's strength, the communication services sector (-2.1%) ultimately finished lower.
Microsoft (MSFT 525.78, -15.77, -2.91%) also moved lower despite an earnings beat of its own, though the company issued just in-line Q2 guidance and reported a smaller upside surprise in Azure revenues than previous quarters.
Elsewhere, the consumer discretionary sector (-2.6%) finished with the widest loss as Tesla's (TSLA 440.10, -21.41, -4.64%) slide pushed it to negative territory for the month, while Amazon (AMZN 222.86, -7.44, -3.23%) traded lower ahead of its earnings this afternoon. The sector faced additional pressure from post-earnings weakness in Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 32.52, -7.24, -18.22%) and eBay (EBAY 83.73, -15.81, -15.88%).
Apple (AAPL 271.40, +1.70, +0.63%) also reports this afternoon, though it consistently held a modest gain throughout the session, helping to limit losses in the information technology sector (-1.4%), which moved lower with Microsoft and other top components. NVIDIA (NVDA 202.81, -4.23, -2.04%) was among those names, pulling back from recent record highs and contributing to a 1.5% loss in the PHLX Semiconductor Index.
The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (-1.5%) finished with a similar loss, and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-0.4%) outperformed the market-weighted S&P 500 (-1.0%).
While the mega-caps lagged from the start, other recently overlooked pockets of the market held considerable gains throughout the day as investors rotated out of tech. The DJIA (-0.2%) held a nice gain for most of the day, nearly eclipsing yesterday's all-time high level before a broader retreat ensued late in the session.
Three S&P 500 sectors still managed to finish higher, all of which faced significant losses in yesterday's trade.
The real estate sector (+0.6%) finally caught some buying interest, though the sector still holds a 4.0% loss for the week, while the financials sector (+0.3%) was supported by strength in its major banking names after weakness across the board yesterday.
The health care sector (+0.2%) also escaped with a gain, supported by its largest component, Eli Lilly (LLY 844.79, +31.26, +3.84%), after an earnings beat, while Moderna (MRNA 28.14, +3.44, +13.93%) made a significant intraday move following speculation of a buyout. Dow component Merck (MRK 86.26, -0.32, -0.37%) faced a modest loss despite beating earnings estimates.
Outside of the S&P 500, the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.8%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.0%) widened their losses that came after Fed Chair Powell's commentary reduced the market's expectations of a December rate cut.
Despite the stock market retreating today as its largest names lagged, it was not a complete washout trade by any means. After a several-day rally past record highs, the mega-caps were due for a pullback, with any hint of weakness in earnings reports used as a reason to take some money off of the table.
U.S. Treasuries retreated on Thursday, adding to their post-FOMC losses, with longer tenors leading the weakness. The 2-year note yield settled up three basis points to 3.61%, and the 10-year note yield settled up four basis points to 4.09%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +22.1% YTD
- S&P 500: +16.0% YTD
- DJIA: +11.7% YTD
- Russell 2000: +10.6% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +3.4% YTD
Mega-caps under pressure ahead of Apple and Amazon earnings
30-Oct-25 15:35 ET
Dow -30.21 at 47601.58, Nasdaq -329.61 at 23628.89, S&P -53.21 at 6837.37
[BRIEFING.COM] The DJIA (-0.1%) now joins the S&P 500 (-0.8%) and Nasdaq Composite (-1.4%) in negative territory as the market enters the final half hour of the session.
The consumer discretionary (-2.2%) has widened its loss, with Tesla (TSLA 441.88, -19.63, -4.25%) and Amazon (AMZN 224.26, -6.04, -2.62%) charting session lows just before the close.
Amazon will report its earnings after the close, as will Apple (AAPL 271.36, +1.66, +0.62%), which has steadily held a gain throughout the session.
Airline stocks under pressure following November outlook
30-Oct-25 15:00 ET
Dow +3.31 at 47635.10, Nasdaq -286.45 at 23672.05, S&P -44.34 at 6846.24
[BRIEFING.COM] The DJIA has retreated to its flat line, while the S&P 500 (-0.6%) and Nasdaq Composite (-1.2%) are also near session lows.
Vice President JD Vance warned that airline travel could be a disaster if the government shutdown lasts until Thanksgiving. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy attributed minimal disruptions in October to good weather but added that disruptions will increase in November when more people are traveling if the government is not reopened.
Airline stocks such as United Airlines (UAL 93.31, -2.62, -2.73%), Delta Air Lines (DAL 57.46, -1.30, -2.21%), and Southwest Air (LUV 30.10, -0.56, -1.84%) moved lower in response.
CHRW jumps 19% on outlook, buyback; EME, CI, BAX sink post-earnings as S&P 500 falls 0.6%
30-Oct-25 14:30 ET
Dow +79.72 at 47711.51, Nasdaq -277.70 at 23680.80, S&P -39.89 at 6850.69
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.58%) is in second place on Thursday afternoon among the major averages, down about 40 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents EMCOR Group (EME 645.00, -132.00, -16.99%), Cigna (CI 256.67, -42.45, -14.19%), and Baxter (BAX 19.47, -2.95, -13.16%) pepper the bottom of the standings all following earnings.
Meanwhile, C.H. Robinson (CHRW 154.06, +24.68, +19.08%) is today's top performer after the company posted an earnings beat, raised its 2026 profit outlook above expectations, and announced a $2 billion share buyback—signaling strong execution, improving margins, and renewed confidence in its turnaround strategy.
Gold climbs as investors weigh Fed rate cut and renewed geopolitical risks
30-Oct-25 14:00 ET
Dow +155.23 at 47787.02, Nasdaq -210.30 at 23748.20, S&P -25.58 at 6865.00
[BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours to go on Thursday the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.88%) is today's worst-performing major average, down about 210 points.
Gold futures settled $15.20 higher (+0.4%) at $4,015.90/oz, as investors balanced the Fed's latest 25 bp rate cut with cautious comments from Chair Powell that tempered expectations for another move in December. Safe-haven demand also picked up amid uncertainty surrounding the new U.S./China trade accord and lingering geopolitical risks.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up about +0.4% to $99.54.
KLA Corporation Caps Off a Strong Q1; Geopolitical Clouds, but Growth Story Shines Through (KLAC)
KLA (KLAC) is trading modestly lower today after reporting its Q1 (Sep) results last night. The semicap equipment maker delivered another solid quarter, beating expectations on both the top and bottom line. EPS topped consensus by double digits, though the beat was narrower than in recent quarters. Revenue increased 13% yr/yr to $3.21 bln. The company's Q2 EPS and revenue guidance was in line with expectations at $7.92-9.48 and $3.075-3.375 bln, respectively.
- The company continues to benefit from the growing importance of process control and AI infrastructure investment, driving stronger customer engagement and higher process-control intensity.
- Foundry/logic and memory both contributed to growth, supported by leading-edge investment and strong HBM-related DRAM demand, which management said remains particularly robust with strength expected into CY26 as customers expand AI capacity.
- Advanced packaging is emerging as a bright spot, with CY25 revenue expected to exceed $925 mln, up about 70% yr/yr, supported by heterogeneous chip integration and a served market growing faster than core WFE, according to management.
- China is expected to normalize, consistent with peers, after running hot this quarter (39%). The company expects export controls to reduce revenue by about $300-350 mln through CY26, though sees an offset by leading edge and DRAM going up.
- Looking ahead, management reiterated CY26 as a growth year, not necessarily higher in magnitude but with rising confidence as customer visibility and slot activity improve.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
This report echoes what we've seen from others in the semi-cap space, with upside results fueled by AI tailwinds tied to infrastructure investments and rising process-control intensity. Geopolitical concerns remain, with China revenue taking a hit, similar to what peers Lam Research (LRCX) and Applied Materials (AMAT) have disclosed, though these pressures appear largely manageable. The stock is down slightly today after a strong move yesterday, suggesting a mild "sell-the-news" reaction, as fundamentals and the broader growth story remain intact.
Chipotle Burrito Blues: Chipotle’s Sales Wrap Falls Flat as Consumer Appetite Cools (CMG)
Chipotle (CMG -17%) is sharply lower after posting Q3 results that fell flat on nearly every front. The fast-casual chain reported in-line EPS and revenue, but same-store sales (comps) were disappointing, and the company cut FY25 comp guidance for the second consecutive quarter—to low-single digits from flat. The latest reduction underscores a difficult stretch for CMG, which saw comps soar +7.4% in 2024 but has since struggled to sustain momentum.
It's been nearly a year since Scott Boatwright took over as CEO in November 2024, succeeding Brian Niccol (now CEO of Starbucks), and investors are beginning to question the brand's direction.
- Q3 comps rose just +0.3%, marking a modest rebound from -4.0% in Q2, but the full-year guidance cut implies a likely weak Q4 ahead.
- CMG cited consumer headwinds across income segments, with low- to middle-income guests (households under $100K, ~40% of sales) showing the sharpest pullback.
- The 25-35 age group—a key demographic for CMG—is particularly pressured by unemployment, resumed student loan payments, and weak wage growth, leading to lower visit frequency.
- Management noted the promotional environment has intensified, with competitors emphasizing value offerings—something CMG refuses to pursue, maintaining that "value as a price point is not and will not be a Chipotle strategy."
Chipotle's brand strength and food quality remain intact, but its premium pricing strategy appears out of sync with current consumer trends. Without a value tier or innovative pricing tactics—such as smaller portions or bundled deals—recovery may remain elusive.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
Chipotle's once-sizzling growth story has cooled significantly, and management's reluctance to adapt its pricing or menu strategy could prolong the slump. With comps barely positive and consumer pressure mounting, CMG's premium-only approach looks increasingly risky. We think the company needs to re-engage value-conscious customers through creativity rather than price hikes. The lack of urgency from management is concerning, particularly given the demographic challenges of its core audience. CMG remains a best-in-class brand operationally, but near-term growth visibility is cloudy at best.
Meta Platforms' in-line revenue guidance and rising capex plans hit stock hard amid AI push (META)
Meta Platforms (META) comfortably beat Q3 EPS and revenue expectations, posting its strongest revenue growth since 2021. However, a substantial $15.9 bln non-cash income tax charge weighed on GAAP EPS and the stock post-earnings. The company maintained in-line Q4 guidance, projecting steady ad growth but slower Reality Labs revenue as Quest headset demand was pulled forward. META also raised FY25 spending plans and warned of even heavier investments in AI and infrastructure next year.
- The $15.9 bln tax charge, resulting from US tax law changes that reduced META’s deferred tax assets, cut GAAP EPS to $1.05 and weighed on post-earnings sentiment. Management expects the new law will provide substantial cash tax benefits going forward.
- Core Q3 results showed advertising revenue jump 25.5% to $50.1 bln, driven by a 14% increase in ad impressions and a 10% rise in price per ad. META’s advanced AI models and automation (e.g., Lattice, Andromeda, Advantage+) continue to bolster ad targeting, performance, and conversion rates.
- AI-powered recommendation systems are boosting time spent and engagement on Facebook, Instagram, and Threads, supporting sustained momentum in ad yields and advertiser demand.
- META issued in-line Q4 revenue guidance of $56–$59 bln, reflecting strong ad growth but lower Reality Labs revenue due to lapping last year's Quest 3S launch and pull-forward buying by retailers for the holidays.
- FY25 total expense guidance was raised to $116–$118 bln (prior: $114–$118 bln), with capex now seen at $70–$72 bln (prior: $66–$72 bln). META anticipates notably larger capex growth in 2026, with expense growth to accelerate further, mainly driven by infrastructure, cloud, and depreciation costs.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
META’s Q3 results reflect a powerful validation of its AI-driven strategy, with advertising revenue growth fueled by advanced AI ranking systems and strong user engagement. While the significant non-tax charge pressures GAAP EPS, the underlying business momentum remains robust, supported by rapid adoption of new AI tools like Vibes and continued strength across its Family of Apps. The company’s aggressive CapEx guidance increase underscores the commitment to scaling AI infrastructure but also raises questions about return on investment and margin pressure in the near term. The bottom line is that META's underwhelming in-line revenue guidance, coupled with expectations of significantly higher expenses and capex, is weighing heavily on the stock today.
Starbucks Gains Steam as Q4 Marks First Positive Comps Under Back-to-Starbucks Plan (SBUX)
Starbucks (SBUX) is moving higher today after showing clear progress in the first year of its "Back-to-Starbucks" plan in its Q4 (Sep) report. The company missed EPS expectations, as profitability is still being weighed down by restructuring costs, inflation (coffee/tariffs), and heavier labor investments. However, revenue beat estimates, increasing 5.5% yr/yr to $9.57 bln, its fastest growth in seven quarters.
- Notably, global comp sales grew +1%, its first positive comp in nearly two years, and a nice improvement from the -2% comp in Q3.
- North America comps were flat, with the US flat but improving sequentially, and Canada positive; US comp sales turned positive in September on transactions and have stayed positive through October.
- International delivered a comp of +3%, led by Japan (back to positive), China, the UK, and Mexico; China comps of +2% marked a second straight quarter of growth, and Starbucks continues to seek a local partner to support longer-term growth.
- Results reflect progress in the plan and the Green Apron Service rollout, which is driving better staffing, faster service times, and stronger value perception.
- EPS weakness was mainly tied to these investments, portfolio actions, tariffs, and higher coffee prices; operating margin fell 500 bps yr/yr to 9.6%.
- Looking ahead, Starbucks will provide more formal guidance at its January Investor Day, though management sounded encouraged about the upcoming holiday season and current comp trends.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
This quarter showed notable progress under Starbucks' "Back-to-Starbucks" plan. Comps finally turned positive for the first time in nearly two years, and results improved sequentially across key markets, especially in the US. Current trends also show continued momentum, with comps turning positive in September and remaining there into October. Profitability is still hurt by these turnaround investments, but it's good to see them producing visible results. Management noted that turnarounds can be difficult to forecast, yet remains encouraged by the progress, and investors are, too.
Microsoft Powers Up: Azure Shines Bright as FY26 Kicks Off in the Cloud (MSFT)
Microsoft (MSFT) is trading modestly lower despite an impressive start to FY26. The software titan posted its largest EPS beat in the past five years, with fiscal Q1 (Sep) revenue surging 18.4% yr/yr to $77.67 bln, topping the $77 bln mark for the first time ever. It was also Microsoft's strongest revenue growth since 3QFY22, showcasing broad-based strength across all segments — with Azure once again leading the charge. The only modest disappointment was management's in-line Q2 (Dec) revenue outlook, following an upside guide last quarter.
- Azure grew +39% CC (constant currency), surpassing prior guidance of +37% CC, fueled by robust demand from hyperscale and enterprise customers. Demand continued to exceed supply across AI and infrastructure workloads, even as Microsoft added more capacity. For Q2 (Dec), MSFT expects Azure growth of +37% CC, signaling still-strong momentum despite persistent capacity constraints.
- Productivity and Business Processes and More Personal Computing (MPC) segments also exceeded expectations. Within MPC, Windows OEM and Devices revenue jumped 6% yr/yr, far above internal expectations, driven by pre-upgrade demand ahead of Windows 10's end-of-support date.
- Cap-ex surged to $34.9 bln, up from prior guidance of "over $30 bln." Notably, MSFT now expects FY26 cap-ex growth to outpace FY25, a reversal from prior commentary that spending would moderate next year.
- Microsoft plans to increase spending on GPUs and CPUs sequentially in Q2 and will boost AI capacity by 80% this year while doubling its datacenter footprint over the next two years — underscoring soaring enterprise AI demand and backlog growth.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
Despite the stellar numbers, shares are slightly lower today. Investors appear to be reacting to the in-line Q2 guidance, a smaller Azure upside surprise than prior quarters, and a broader tech rotation following the sector's recent rally. The Azure metrics reinforce Microsoft's AI leadership and signal durable enterprise demand. However, the muted Q2 guide and decelerating magnitude of Azure beats could temper near-term enthusiasm. We view the pullback today as more technical than fundamental, driven by high expectations and sector rotation.
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