Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ccube who wrote (78418)

10/31/2025 4:47:08 PM

From: Ccube

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78462

Burry is giving warning on twitter (x)
" “Sometimes we see bubbles… sometimes the only winning move is not to play.”

only problem is the highest returns are at the end of the bubble formation.

when is the highest return on investment when bubble forms

ChatGPT said:

Excellent question — and a really insightful one.
Understanding when in a bubble cycle the highest returns occur can help you think strategically rather than emotionally.

Here’s a breakdown based on historical market bubbles (dot-com 1995-2000, housing 2003-2007, crypto 2016-2021, etc.) and behavioral finance research:

?? 1. The highest ROI typically occurs in the late stages of the bubble — right before it bursts. Why:

Early stages bring steady gains as fundamentals improve.
Mid-stage brings momentum — new investors join in, valuations expand.
Late-stage brings euphoria: everyone piles in, valuations detach from fundamentals, and returns go parabolic.

This is when you see the largest absolute gains over short periods — often 30–100% or more in just months — but also the highest risk of losing it all soon after.

Example:

BubblePhaseTypical ReturnsTimeframeComments

Dot-com (1995–2000)	Early (1995–1998)	~15–20% yearly	3 years	Strong fundamentals (internet adoption).
	Late (1999–Mar 2000)	+80–120% in <12 mo	1 year	Mania phase; collapsed by Oct 2000.
Bitcoin (2016–2021)	Early (2016–2019)	~5×	3 years	Gradual institutional adoption.
	Late (2020–Apr 2021)	+400% in 8 mo	8 months	Retail frenzy before crash.

?? The peak ROI period is the euphoric acceleration phase, usually 6–12 months before the crash.

To: Ccube who wrote (78418)	11/1/2025 10:58:44 AM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78462

Re. "Did you ever look at which is better..." I spent a couple of hours reviewing this, and I can't determine. Definition of "better" is confounding, because position size makes a huge difference. On most stocks, at least recently, I am buying more as they fall, but the positions are usually small. On stocks that have been winners, as I say if I sell, I am always trying to keep a stub position. If I've a stock that's doubled, I NEVER tell myself, "sell half and ride the rest, I then am riding on the house's money." My idea instead is, "What is fair value?" If I believe the stock value to be higher, I hold, maybe only sell a token few shares, so I do capture some gain should the stock fall back. It's very hard for me to add anything but a few shares to stocks at the point where they've already gone up a lot. I believe that's been a big mistake as I look at stocks that I hold that have gone up the most dollar-wise in my account. Usually those are stocks I've held several years. I shouda/coulda/dint add somewhere along the line. AAPL being an example. I am trying to adjust for this by being more aware of the good businesses/stocks that I hold (more set-and not forget), and add when share price drops. As an example I like moat stock ICE - Intercontinental Exchange. I've held shares since 2017. As the stock has fallen from Aug. highs, beginning in Sept. I started buying more. Persistent tiny buys - buying all though Oct. My intent is to just keep on holding shares. Fwiw, I've been doing similar with long-held CPAY. Looking at percentage gainers is difficult/misleading because of the way the brokerage calculates % gain on stocks, where I have dividends reinvested. For example, the largest % gainer in one portfolio is long-held ALLY Financial with over a 5000% gain. But this is because I sold almost all shares, the reinvested dividends are still there though, and the percent gain is calculated on a denominator of just 1 or 2 shares. Anyway, good question that you ask, and I'm sorry I really have no definitive answer for you.