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Strategies & Market Trends : Bear! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sean Collett who wrote (267)	11/4/2025 11:19:37 AM
From: Sean Collett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 291

As QT gets ready to end in December I find it interesting that of the 502 tickers that makeup the S&P 500 that 308 (61%) are below the 50 SMA and 235 are below the 200 SMA. SOFR shot down to 4.04% after FOMC and now back on the rise with option adjusted B/CCC spreads too. Cost of borrowing going up. I went back in this morning on my TLT calls as I see some stability after FOMC. Got out in time and will see if this is a spot to reenter. I see a play here similar to what I saw in 2021/2022 except in reverse. Fed made transitory mistakes prior and likely making them again this time. Otherwise I am sitting in high cash. There is no clear catalyst for anything but if market was frothy last year it's not worth the chase now. Like I said in September, "not a call to go shorting/putting, but a call to manage your risk. Cash is a strategy too." I am taking the major cash strategy for now. My new TLT calls are Aug 2026 expiration and got in at $0.80 a contact. I run tight on my options strategies so if I don't like what I see I bolt, but I see a pitch here. Speaking of pitches, I read on PitchBook.com that roughly 30% of private credit loans with a PIK component are coming due in next two years. Oh my. Estimated that $170B of capital is going to be needed in this time. Bloomberg ran a story a few days ago that to cover the fact that these loans are turning bad they have resorted to using bad PIK to hide and kick the can. Our Emcee was blasted this morning because of his newly reported PUT position (which may or may not even still be on the table). I think when you see a company CEO publicly call this stuff out it's a toppy sign. What do I know. Interview was something..... I think of the below poem at times like these. “There's no earthly way of knowing Which direction we are going There's no knowing where we're rowing Or which way the river's flowing Is it raining, is it snowing? Is a hurricane a-blowing? - uh! Not a speck of light is showing So the danger must be growing Are the fires of Hell a-glowing? Is the grisly reaper mowing? Yes! The danger must be growing For the rowers keep on rowing And they're certainly not showing Any signs that they are slowing! A-aa-aaa-aaaah!” ? Roald Dahl -Sean