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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (67540)

11/3/2025 3:06:33 PM

From: Johnny Canuck

Respond to of 67862

If it’s in the press, it’s in the price.

Markets love climbing walls of worry and right now, we have plenty to worry about.

Over the last month we’ve seen:

A cluster of Hindenburg Omen triggers
Diverging breadth tech leading, non-tech looking tired
Momentum extremes & RSI divergences on higher timeframes (the Nikkei just closed up 14% in one month)
Continued strength in forward earnings revisions globally

So let’s cut through the noise and lay out what matters.

The Hindenburg Omen What It Really Means (and Doesn’t)There’s a lot of drama around the Hindenburg Omen, so let’s set the record straight.

What is it?
The Hindenburg Omen is a technical breadth signal designed to spot internal market breakdowns beneath rising prices.

It requires ALL of the following on the same day:

Rising 10-week moving average
New 52-week highs AND 52-week lows > 2.2% of issues
McClellan Oscillator negative
New highs = 2x new lows

Translation:
The market is making new highs…
while enough stocks are breaking down underneath to signal fragility.

One signal means little.
Clusters matter.

Every major drawdown in recent decades occurred after repeated triggers in a tight window. That’s what we have again today.

Historically (past 30 cases source @SubuTrade on X):

The takeaway?

Short-term risk rises. Long-term signal is inconclusive.
It's a condition, not a timing tool.

The Breadth Problem Tech vs. The WorldBreadth remains the market’s Achilles heel.

Mega-cap tech accelerating
Non-tech sectors struggling
% of stocks above long-term moving averages remains subdued

This dynamic looks eerily similar to 1999–2000:

Capital concentration
Momentum leadership narrow
“Everything-else” lagging

Does this guarantee a top?
No but historically, tops don’t form when tech is just starting another up-leg.

As painful as it is for many bears:

market tops form when earnings turn, not when charts look stretched. That's why we tend to follow the price action as our number one confluence read.

(Source : percentage of Stocks Above 200DMA: TradingView / FX EvolutionWe don’t have that yet.)

Earnings & Margins: The Real ClockOne of the most powerful and overlooked facts:

Margins typically peak 1 year before equities
Median: 5 quarters
Average: 9 quarters

And what do we currently see?

Forward earnings still rising

Global earnings revisions turning up

No clear profit margin rollover yet

That doesn’t cancel short-term risks but structurally, bull peaks require earnings deterioration.

We don't have that yet.

Source: Global Earnings Growth: Fidelity / Bloomberg / FMRCo @TimmerFidelity

The Message Right NowThis environment is classic late-cycle:

Froth?
Momentum?
Divergences?
Earnings breakdown?

That last one matters most.

So what do we do?

Respect momentum
Be aware of elevated correction risk
Don’t front-run a peak without the earnings confirmation
Prepare, don’t predict
Let price lead, not emotions

We're in a market where reaction beats prediction.

When the earnings data cracks and margins roll that’s when you pull forward the bigger bear thesis.

Until then, tactical caution ? structural doom.

SPY Hindenburg Signals Cluster: TradingView / FX Evolution

Final ThoughtMarkets love to humiliate the most confident participant.
They're designed to reward patience, not ego.

Study clusters, not single indicators (only 2 current hindenburg reads)

Respect divergences, but don’t anchor to them

Watch earnings like a hawk

Stay flexible — the strongest edge is adaptability

The crowd searches for certainty.
Professionals search for signals.

2026/7 remains a cycle climax window — but patience pays more than prediction.

Takeaway

Confidence fuels rallies.

Humility preserves capital.

Right now, markets have plenty of the first and could use a bit more of the second.

Follow FX Evolution for data-driven insights, not drama.

(General information only not financial advice.)

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