To: Jim Mullens who wrote (196452 ) 11/8/2025 11:11:48 PM From: Jim Mullens 3 RecommendationsRecommended By Ken Carrillo matherandlowell techlvr
Respond to of 196772 Follow up to -QCOM v NVDA- video (revenue / share price projections)...................................... .. Came across an interesting Youtube video - Qualcomm vs Nvidia: A strategic entry into the AI data center market - YouTube Qualcomm vs Nvidia: A strategic entry into the AI data center market - YouTube Toward the end of the video they discuss QCOM’s “re-rating” , as the public/ analyst community/ institutions become more confident in QCOM AI business prospects the PE will begin to expand. Although no projections are provided in the video, I gave that task to Copilot . >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Below is the forecast of QCOM FY29 share price generated with Copilot’s assistance. The speakers in the video and others (Stacy Rasgon) suggest that when the “market” adjusts to the fact that QCOM is building a viable business in the inference data center market, it’s multiple with begin to “re-rate” (expand). The two tables below model that expansion by projecting QCOM revenue thru FY29 along with projecting gradual PE expansion in two scenarios- 1) growing to 25X as suggested in the video, and 2) 35X my forecast . FY29 revenue ties to QCOMs Nov’24 Analyst Day targets with the addition of $6.8B for new data center effort. Further, the iPhone modem revenue is backed out starting in FY26 and totally removed in FY 27 ($5.5B). I found it interesting in using QCOMs $22B target for handsets and adding back $5.5B for AAPL modems, the result is $27.5B, yielding only a 2% five year handset CAGR. This appears to understate global handset sales by several percentage points in my estimation. Cutting to the chase, QCOM’s FY29 share price would gradually increase to $368 at a 25X PE, and $515 at 35X. (worth another five year wait) Note, the model reflects share prices each year thru FY29. Comments / questions appreciated.