Market Snapshot
| Dow | 46986.89 | +74.80 | (0.16%) | | Nasdaq | 23004.55 | -49.46 | (-0.21%) | | SP 500 | 6728.79 | +8.48 | (0.13%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1672 | Dec 1082 | Vol 1.31 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 2430 | Dec 2205 | Vol 10.18 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Financials |
| | Weak: Information Technology, Communication Services |
Moving the Market
--Continued weakness in mega-cap stocks and growth stocks
--S&P 500 tests support at 50-day moving average (6669.00) and holds on a closing basis
--Rebalancing effort
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Closing Stock Market Summary
07-Nov-25 16:25 ET
Dow +74.80 at 46986.89, Nasdaq -49.46 at 23004.55, S&P +8.48 at 6728.79
[BRIEFING.COM] You might not think it looking at the final standing of the major indices, but today was quite a win for the bulls, technically speaking. The S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average (6,669.00) but once again found support and managed to close above that key technical level, just as it has time and again since this remarkable rally began in April.
It was looking dicey during the morning session, with session lows reached just after 12:00 p.m. ET. At that point, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 were down 0.9%, 2.1%, and 1.3%, respectively, undercut yet again by losses in the mega-cap stocks and the growth stocks and some concerns about an economic slowdown.
The latter was pinned on one of the lowest readings ever for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and copious reports about hundreds of flight cancellations due to the government shutdown.
The buy-the-dip crowd started to re-emerge early in the afternoon session, however, and retook control of the tape, helping many stocks pare larger losses and other stocks extend their gains.
Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the day higher, led by the energy (+1.6%), utilities (+1.4%), materials (+1.3%), real estate (+1.3%), and consumer staples (+1.3%) sectors. The communication services (-0.8%) and information technology (-0.3%) sectors were the two losers, but both finished well off their lows.
The S&P 500 eventually reclaimed a posture above the 6,669.00 level and got an added boost on reports that the Democrats will vote to reopen the government if Republicans agree to a one-year extension of the Obamacare subsidies.
The positive buzz around that possibility didn't last long. CNBC soon reported that the Democrats' offer is likely to be rejected by the Republicans, who want the government reopened first before talks on extending the Obamacare subsidies are held.
Strikingly, this report didn't unnerve the market, which not only finished higher after the report but, in fact, finished at its highs for the day. We're not sure if that means participants are thinking there could be some kind of deal struck over the weekend or if the positive finish was just a continuation of the exciting technical rebound effort.
Whatever the case may have been, it was an uplifting finish for the bulls at the end of an arduous week that was highlighted by a number of outsized losses in the growth stock and AI universe following earnings reports. Stocks like Take-Two (TTWO 232.00, -20.40, -8.08%), The Trade Desk (TTD 43.00, -2.90, -6.31%), and Microchip (MCHP 56.28, -3.07, -5.17%) felt that pinch today. Tesla (TSLA 429.52, -16.39, -3.68%) did, too, after 75% of shareholders approved a pay package for Elon Musk that could be worth possibly as much as $1 trillion if various benchmarks are met.
To be sure, there were outsized gains registered in some corners as well, yet there was a clear leadership void among the mega-cap stocks and growth stocks that weighed on the indices and investor sentiment. NVIDIA (NVDA 188.15, +0.07, +0.04%), which battled back from a near 5.0% decline today that briefly took it below its 50-day moving average (183.43), declined 7.1% this week. Microsoft (MSFT 496.82, -0.28, -0.06%) declined 4.1% this week and has an eight-session losing streak.
The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF declined 3.1% this week, while the Russell 3000 Growth Index dropped 2.9%. In comparison, the Russell 3000 Value Index fell just 0.1% this week, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 shed just 0.2%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +19.1% YTD
- S&P 500: +14.4% YTD
- DJIA: +10.5% YTD
- Russell 2000: +9.1% YTD
Reviewing today's economic data:
- The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for November fell to 50.3 (Briefing.com consensus: 54.0) from the final reading of 53.6 for October. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 71.8.
- The key takeaway from the report is that the decline in sentiment was widespread across the population, with one notable exception: consumers within the largest tercile of stock holdings.
- Consumer credit increased by $13.1 billion in September (Briefing.com consensus: $8.0 billion) following an upwardly revised $3.1 billion increase (from $0.4 billion) in August.
- The key takeaway from the report is that the expansion in consumer credit in September was driven largely by nonrevolving credit.
No deal yet to end shutdown
07-Nov-25 15:30 ET
Dow -23.12 at 46888.97, Nasdaq -145.89 at 22908.12, S&P -13.34 at 6706.97
[BRIEFING.COM] Our last update discussed the market's budding optimism that a deal to end the government shutdown could be in the making. CNBC has subsequently reported that the Democrats' offer will be rejected by the Republicans, who want the government reopened first before holding talks on extending the Obamacare subsidies.
The rebound effort has cooled off in the wake of this reporting. The bogey into the close now will be 6,669.00--the key support level (50-day moving average) we have been highlighting all day.
A close above that key level, even if it means a loss for the day in the S&P 500, is presumably an important component for breathing some life into the buy-the-dip crowd, as that key support level has held repeatedly in the run off the April lows.
Buy-the-dip trade gets resuscitated
07-Nov-25 15:00 ET
Dow +42.83 at 46954.92, Nasdaq -115.30 at 22938.71, S&P -6.07 at 6714.24
[BRIEFING.COM] Earlier, we noted that the S&P 500 was testing key support at its 50-day moving average (6,669.00), which has held on multiple occasions during the rally off the April lows. Our contention was that, if the buy-the-dip trade was going to be resuscitated, it should be happening there.
Well, it has taken some time to unfold (the S&P 500 ultimately traded down to 6,631.44), but the buy-the-dip crowd is back and has been doing the driving in the afternoon session. The S&P 500 is back above 6,700.00, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, down 416 points at its low today, is back in positive territory.
The afternoon rebound has been a broad-based and indiscriminate affair. Just about everything has been pulled higher, helped in part by a bubbling of optimism that the government shutdown could be close to ending.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Democrats will vote to reopen the government if Republicans agree to a one-year extension of COVID-era Obamacare subsidies. Axios reporter Stef Kight has reported that GOP senators will have a meeting at 3:30 PM today to discuss the Democrats' offer. They could reject it, but for now at least, the market is heartened that it isn't a flat-out "no."
While the rebound has been broad-based, that doesn't mean gains in every case, but it means reduced losses. The S&P 500 information technology sector, down 2.4% at its worst level of the day, is now down just 0.8%.
The equal-weighted S&P 500, meanwhile, is up 0.8%.
S&P 500 slips 0.6% as Dexcom and Franklin Resources lag; AKAM jumps on strong Q3 and upbeat outlook
07-Nov-25 14:30 ET
Dow -153.70 at 46758.39, Nasdaq -252.07 at 22801.94, S&P -38.28 at 6682.03
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.57%) is in second place on Friday afternoon, down 38 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Dexcom (DXCM 54.97, -3.05, -5.26%), Franklin Resources (BEN 22.14, -1.11, -4.77%), and onsemi (ON 46.86, -1.94, -3.98%) pepper the bottom of the standings. DXCM falls despite strength in peer Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM 16.18, +2.85, +21.38%) after earnings, while BEN slides despite topping Q4 earnings and revenue estimates, as investors focused on continued net outflows and lingering pressure from its Western Asset unit.
Meanwhile, Akamai Tech (AKAM 85.59, +12.59, +17.25%) is one of today's better performers after posting a Q3 earnings beat, raising its FY25 outlook, and highlighting rapid growth in its cloud and AI-driven edge infrastructure businesses.
Gold tops $4,000 as dollar weakens and Fed rate-cut bets lift safe-haven demand
07-Nov-25 14:00 ET
Dow -228.73 at 46683.36, Nasdaq -319.29 at 22734.72, S&P -53.94 at 6666.37
[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (-1.38%) is in last place on Friday afternoon, down more than 319 points.
Gold futures settled $18.80 higher (+0.5%) at $4,009.80/oz, and are up roughly +0.3% on the week. The move appears to be driven primarily by a combination of a weakening U.S. dollar and renewed expectations of an interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve. In addition, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and uncertainties around U.S. trade/tariff policy have revived safe-haven demand for bullion, supporting the advance.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.2% to $99.51.
Tesla shareholders back Musk pay plan, clearing path for bold AI and robotics pivot (TSLA)
Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk secured shareholder approval for a replacement long-term compensation package that could vest him up to 12% of TSLA’s stock -- worth as much as $1 trillion if TSLA reaches the plan’s top valuation hurdle -- and at TSLA’s annual meeting he said the company may have to build a “gigantic” in-house chip fab. The fab starting near 100,000 wafer-starts per month and potentially scaling much larger will be needed to support TSLA’s next-generation AI chips and its Optimus/robotaxi ambitions.
- The vote removes a major governance overhang tied to the voided 2018 package and clears a path for Musk to double-down on TSLA’s AI/robotics strategy even though the milestones required to pay him are extremely ambitious.
- The revised package was proposed against the backdrop of the contested 2018 grant (the earlier $55–56 bln package was voided by a Delaware judge and remains the subject of follow-on litigation), so this replacement was designed in part to resolve a key point of legal and governance uncertainty.
- Musk said TSLA is building its 5th-gen AI chip (AI5) for robotaxi/Optimus and may partner with Intel (INTC). He also claimed the chips will be cheaper and far more power-efficient than Nvidia’s (NVDA).
- Optimus remains a core pillar of the vision, Musk called it potentially “the biggest product of all time,” with a 1 mln-unit pilot line planned in Fremont and future multi-million-unit scale at Giga Austin.
- Internal Optimus use will come first, and external revenue could begin late-decade, with a long-term multi-trillion-dollar TAM if humanoid robots scale broadly.
- A TSLA fab would require multi-billion to tens-of-billions capex, multi-year buildout, and high utilization to be economical.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
The pay package approval removes a major leadership and governance overhang and reinforces investor confidence in Musk’s commitment to TSLA’s AI and robotics strategy. While the award only pays out if extraordinary milestones are met, the plan signals investor willingness to underwrite a long-duration pivot toward autonomous systems and humanoid robots. That path, however, carries significant execution and capital risk -- especially if TSLA moves forward with building large-scale chip fabrication capacity. A mega-fab could eventually create cost and performance advantages, but it would likely pressure cash flow and margins for years before contributing meaningfully. Optimus and robotaxi remain potentially transformational, yet revenue at scale is still a late-decade or longer opportunity and highly dependent on technical and regulatory progress. In short, the vote removes uncertainty, but the next phase requires disciplined spending and clear operational proof points, not just vision.
Expedia Takes a Trip Higher as Accelerating Growth Highlights Healthy Consumer Travel Trends (EXPE)
Expedia Group (EXPE) is taking a trip higher following its Q3 results last night, as the online travel agency delivered its largest EPS upside in over three years, with revenue up 8.7% yr/yr to $4.41 bln, nicely above expectations. Adding to the enthusiasm, management raised FY25 revenue growth to 6-7% (from 3-5%), or roughly $14.5-14.6 bln, and lifted bookings growth to 7% (from 3-5%), signaling sustained demand momentum across both consumer and partner channels.
- Booked room nights increased 11%, led by its strongest U.S. night growth in over three years and acceleration across core regions and brands. Total bookings rose 12%, a notable pickup from +5% in Q2.
- The results reflect a broadly improved demand environment, with management citing longer booking windows and lengths of stay, as well as healthy demand at both the premium and value tiers.
- B2B bookings surged 26%, marking the 17th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, while Advertising revenue rose 16% on record partner participation.
- On the consumer side, Brand Expedia bookings climbed 7%, accelerating from Q2 and supported by double-digit international growth alongside stronger U.S. trends. Hotels.com grew at its fastest pace in over two years following its relaunch.
- Management highlighted ongoing benefits from its AI integration and platform unification, which are driving improved conversion, personalization, and margin efficiency.
- Looking ahead, management noted continued momentum in October, though the Q4 guidance of 6-8% bookings growth reflects tougher yr/yr comparisons. It also expects further margin expansion in FY26.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
This was an impressive report from Expedia, lifting shares to new all-time highs. Bookings and room nights accelerated, with U.S. growth the strongest in over three years and international demand remaining robust. As mentioned in the preview, U.S. travel commentary was a key focus, and it came in notably positive, with management calling the market healthy and citing longer booking windows and stays. The continued momentum into October and raised FY25 guidance, alongside expectations for further margin expansion in FY26, point to sustained strength. With a healthier travel backdrop, strong B2B and ad momentum, and expanding AI-driven efficiencies, EXPE looks well positioned to extend its momentum into 2026.
The Trade Desk Programmatic Power Play: The Trade Desk’s Strong Q3 Fails to Impress Wall Street(TTD)
The Trade Desk (TTD -7%) is trading lower following its Q3 earnings report, despite delivering one of its strongest quarters in years. It has been a roller coaster few months for TTD. The stock sold off in February following disappointing Q4 results with downside revs. Then it gapped higher in May when it beat handily on Q1 EPS and revs. However, its Q2 report/commentary in early August was a letdown, plus its long time CFO Laura Schenkein abruptly stepped down. Today, the stock is lower but we are seeing a more modest move.
- Revenue rose 17.7% yr/yr to $739.4 mln, well above expectations; excluding last year's political spend, growth was about 22% yr/yr.
- EPS delivered the company's largest beat in four years, reflecting solid operating leverage.
- Q4 guidance of "at least $840 mln" topped consensus, signaling confidence heading into the holiday season.
- Connected TV (CTV) remained TTD's largest and fastest-growing channel, outpacing overall company growth as the shift to biddable CTV accelerates.
- International revenue rose to 13% of sales, growing significantly faster than North America as EMEA and APAC momentum builds.
- On the macro front, TTD described a "Tale of Two Cities" — CPG and retail remain pressured, while financial services, healthcare, and auto categories are expanding ad spend.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
The Trade Desk delivered an objectively strong quarter with robust top-line growth, impressive EPS outperformance, and upbeat guidance for Q4. That said, the stock's muted reaction likely reflects investors' caution after a volatile year and lingering concerns around ad spend in key CPG and retail verticals heading into the holidays. We view the quarter as a clear step in the right direction — proof that TTD's platform remains the go-to for programmatic and CTV advertising. However, at ~45x forward EBITDA, expectations are still lofty, leaving limited room for macro hiccups or execution risk. Long-term, we continue to see TTD as one of the best-positioned plays in digital advertising, particularly as CTV becomes the default buying model, but near-term volatility may persist until investor confidence fully stabilizes.
Airbnb posts mixed Q3 results, but Reserve Now, Pay Later driving stronger U.S. bookings (ABNB)
Airbnb’s (ABNB) 3Q25 earnings report showed mixed results with some challenges on profitability as indicated by an EPS miss, but also reflected strong momentum in key growth metrics and a positive outlook for Q4. The company's strong guidance for Q4, particularly the strength in longer lead bookings and U.S. demand, offers comfort that the business retains underlying strength despite macro uncertainties.
- Airbnb missed EPS expectations with reported EPS of $2.21, up 4% yr/yr but impacted by a one-time $213 mln valuation allowance related to tax changes.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin slipped to 50% from 52% a year ago despite adjusted EBITDA reaching a quarterly record of over $2 bln.
- Gross Booking Value (GBV) growth accelerated to 14% yr/yr, up from 11% in Q2, driven primarily by strength in the U.S. market and higher average daily rates (ADR).
- Regionally, Latin America showed robust low-20% growth in nights booked, APAC grew in the mid-teens, and North America and Europe (EMEA) posted mid-single-digit gains. Key U.S. growth was supported by the launch of the Reserve Now, Pay Later payment option.
- Nights and seats booked increased 9% to 133.6 mln, accelerating from 7% growth in Q2, fueled by improvements in the U.S., flexible payment options, and a focus on product enhancements that increased guest engagement and bookings.
- ABNB provided reassuring Q4 guidance with revenue expected in the range of $2.66-$2.72 bln, reflecting 7% to 10% yr/yr growth. GBV is forecasted to grow in the low double digits.
- ABNB is investing heavily in AI integration across its platform to improve customer service, search, and personalization, aiming to differentiate based on a more intelligent and engaging user experience.
- Despite margin pressure this year from investments in new business lines like services and experiences, ABNB expects to maintain strong margins in 2026 as these businesses scale.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
ABNB’s Q3 results show solid top-line momentum with accelerating growth in GBV and nights and seats booked, driven by product innovation and flexible payment options like Reserve Now, Pay Later. While the company missed EPS expectations and experienced a slight margin decline, these shortfalls largely stem from a one-time tax adjustment and increased investment in new business lines. The company’s international expansion and new offerings in experiences and hotels are starting to show strong early results and contribute to growth. The positive Q4 guidance and strength in longer lead time bookings, particularly in the U.S., provide confidence in ongoing demand. Overall, the company demonstrated disciplined execution with a constructive outlook, though margin performance should be monitored as new initiatives scale.
Lyft posts record Q3, accelerates rideshare growth; Q4 guidance shows momentum (LYFT)
Lyft (LYFT) delivered a robust Q3 2025 performance with substantial upside across profitability and growth metrics. Aggressive execution of product, rewards, and partnership initiatives, especially in underpenetrated and high-value markets, underpinned momentum. The rideshare company also issued bullish Q4 guidance while reaffirming long-term targets, sparking a strong rally in shares.
- LYFT's GAAP EPS of $0.11 isn't comparable to the $0.24 consensus. However, adjusted EBITDA surged 29% yr/yr to a record $138.9 mln, near the high end of prior guidance, driven by record active riders, improved driver utilization, and expanded partnerships.
- Record Gross Bookings of $4.8 bln rose 16% yr/yr, fueled by double-digit rides growth, strong performance in underpenetrated U.S. markets, business and high-value segments, and recent acquisitions.
- Rides grew 15% yr/yr to 248.8 mln, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, with notable strength from Lyft Silver and peak day records.
- Q4 guidance calls for Gross Bookings of $5.01-$5.13 bln (17-20% yr/yr growth), which is above expectations at the midpoint, and in-line adjusted EBITDA of $135-$145 mln, reflecting confidence in sustained acceleration.
- CEO David Risher reaffirmed long-term targets amid multiple growth catalysts including insurance reforms, global expansion, and new technology deployments.
- Autonomous vehicle progress includes scaling the Waymo partnership with integrated supply management in Nashville, leveraging LYFT’s Flexdrive for high vehicle availability and utilization, and plans for accretive economics and broader market expansion.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
LYFT’s Q3 results delivered clear strength in its core rideshare business, powered by network innovation, expanding global TAM via acquisitions, and meaningful traction with B2B, enterprise, and partnership channels. The bounce in margins and profitability underscores continued progress in platform economics, especially as insurance reforms begin to take hold and new business lines scale. The AV plans -- focused on practical, accretive partnerships -- should be watched for their long-term margin impacts but are not yet central to earnings. Competitive risks remain, especially with looming industry transitions and autonomous rollout costs, but LYFT’s multi-pronged growth strategy and global expansion provide several catalysts seem to justify premium sector consideration.
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